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Oct 28

Continual evaluation for lifelong learning: Identifying the stability gap

Time-dependent data-generating distributions have proven to be difficult for gradient-based training of neural networks, as the greedy updates result in catastrophic forgetting of previously learned knowledge. Despite the progress in the field of continual learning to overcome this forgetting, we show that a set of common state-of-the-art methods still suffers from substantial forgetting upon starting to learn new tasks, except that this forgetting is temporary and followed by a phase of performance recovery. We refer to this intriguing but potentially problematic phenomenon as the stability gap. The stability gap had likely remained under the radar due to standard practice in the field of evaluating continual learning models only after each task. Instead, we establish a framework for continual evaluation that uses per-iteration evaluation and we define a new set of metrics to quantify worst-case performance. Empirically we show that experience replay, constraint-based replay, knowledge-distillation, and parameter regularization methods are all prone to the stability gap; and that the stability gap can be observed in class-, task-, and domain-incremental learning benchmarks. Additionally, a controlled experiment shows that the stability gap increases when tasks are more dissimilar. Finally, by disentangling gradients into plasticity and stability components, we propose a conceptual explanation for the stability gap.

  • 3 authors
·
May 26, 2022

Certified Circuits: Stability Guarantees for Mechanistic Circuits

Understanding how neural networks arrive at their predictions is essential for debugging, auditing, and deployment. Mechanistic interpretability pursues this goal by identifying circuits--minimal subnetworks responsible for specific behaviors. However, existing circuit discovery methods are brittle: circuits depend strongly on the chosen concept dataset and often fail to transfer out-of-distribution, raising doubts whether they capture the concept or merely dataset-specific artifacts. We introduce Certified Circuits, which provide provable stability guarantees for circuit discovery. Our framework wraps any black-box discovery algorithm with randomized data subsampling to certify that inclusion decisions over circuit components--neurons or edges of the model graph, depending on the base algorithm--are invariant to bounded edit-distance perturbations of the concept dataset. Unstable components are abstained from, yielding circuits that are more compact and more accurate. We validate across three architectures (ResNet, ViT, GPT-2) on vision (ImageNet and four OOD datasets) and language (IOI, IOI-Hard, Greater-Than) tasks. Certified circuits achieve up to 56% higher accuracy and up to 80% fewer components, and remain reliable where baselines degrade. Certified Circuits puts circuit discovery on formal ground by producing mechanistic explanations that are provably stable and better aligned with the target concept. Code: https://github.com/AlaaAnani/certified-circuits.

  • 5 authors
·
May 27

The Impact of Environment Configurations on the Stability of AI-Enabled Systems

Nowadays, software systems tend to include Artificial Intelligence (AI) components. Changes in the operational environment have been known to negatively impact the stability of AI-enabled software systems by causing unintended changes in behavior. However, how an environment configuration impacts the behavior of such systems has yet to be explored. Understanding and quantifying the degree of instability caused by different environment settings can help practitioners decide the best environment configuration for the most stable AI systems. To achieve this goal, we performed experiments with eight different combinations of three key environment variables (operating system, Python version, and CPU architecture) on 30 open-source AI-enabled systems using the Travis CI platform. We determine the existence and the degree of instability introduced by each configuration using three metrics: the output of an AI component of the system (model performance), the time required to build and run the system (processing time), and the cost associated with building and running the system (expense). Our results indicate that changes in environment configurations lead to instability across all three metrics; however, it is observed more frequently with respect to processing time and expense rather than model performance. For example, between Linux and MacOS, instability is observed in 23\%, 96.67\%, and 100\% of the studied projects in model performance, processing time, and expense, respectively. Our findings underscore the importance of identifying the optimal combination of configuration settings to mitigate drops in model performance and reduce the processing time and expense before deploying an AI-enabled system.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 5, 2024

EvoCUA-1.5: Online Reinforcement Learning for Multi-turn Computer-Use Agents

Computer-use agents must solve long-horizon tasks through repeated interaction with partially observable, multimodal desktop environments. Although imitation learning and offline trajectory refinement provide strong priors, static traces cannot cover the causal feedback loop of real computer use: each action changes the screen state, future action space, and recovery options. EvoCUA-1.5 extends self-evolving computer-use agents from offline experience learning to online reinforcement learning, where policies interact with executable sandbox environments and improve from verifiable task outcomes. Online RL in this setting requires more than directly reusing single-turn language-RL recipes. Multi-turn interaction introduces context-managed observations, sparse terminal rewards, variable-length trajectories, and slow environment feedback. EvoCUA-1.5 addresses these challenges with Step-Level Policy Optimization (STEPO), which preserves trajectory-level advantage balance after decomposition into step-level samples; policy-aware filtering and pass-rate calibration over verifiable synthesized tasks; Dynamic Tri-Adaptive Curriculum (DTAC), which combines learnable tasks, difficult positive replay, and controlled infeasible-task exposure; and a fully asynchronous RL infrastructure with staleness control and mini-group batching. Experiments show that these components improve training stability and downstream performance. EvoCUA-1.5 achieves 63.2\% success on OSWorld-Verified, outperforming comparable 32B/35B-scale open-weight baselines and even approaching models with significantly larger parameter counts. Overall, EvoCUA-1.5 provides a practical framework for scaling online RL in multi-turn computer-use agents.

  • 16 authors
·
Sep 3

ComfyMind: Toward General-Purpose Generation via Tree-Based Planning and Reactive Feedback

With the rapid advancement of generative models, general-purpose generation has gained increasing attention as a promising approach to unify diverse tasks across modalities within a single system. Despite this progress, existing open-source frameworks often remain fragile and struggle to support complex real-world applications due to the lack of structured workflow planning and execution-level feedback. To address these limitations, we present ComfyMind, a collaborative AI system designed to enable robust and scalable general-purpose generation, built on the ComfyUI platform. ComfyMind introduces two core innovations: Semantic Workflow Interface (SWI) that abstracts low-level node graphs into callable functional modules described in natural language, enabling high-level composition and reducing structural errors; Search Tree Planning mechanism with localized feedback execution, which models generation as a hierarchical decision process and allows adaptive correction at each stage. Together, these components improve the stability and flexibility of complex generative workflows. We evaluate ComfyMind on three public benchmarks: ComfyBench, GenEval, and Reason-Edit, which span generation, editing, and reasoning tasks. Results show that ComfyMind consistently outperforms existing open-source baselines and achieves performance comparable to GPT-Image-1. ComfyMind paves a promising path for the development of open-source general-purpose generative AI systems. Project page: https://github.com/LitaoGuo/ComfyMind

  • 8 authors
·
May 23, 2025 3

A Unified Predictive and Generative Solution for Liquid Electrolyte Formulation

Liquid electrolytes are critical components of next-generation energy storage systems, enabling fast ion transport, minimizing interfacial resistance, and ensuring electrochemical stability for long-term battery performance. However, measuring electrolyte properties and designing formulations remain experimentally and computationally expensive. In this work, we present a unified framework for designing liquid electrolyte formulation, integrating a forward predictive model with an inverse generative approach. Leveraging both computational and experimental data collected from literature and extensive molecular simulations, we train a predictive model capable of accurately estimating electrolyte properties from ionic conductivity to solvation structure. Our physics-informed architecture preserves permutation invariance and incorporates empirical dependencies on temperature and salt concentration, making it broadly applicable to property prediction tasks across molecular mixtures. Furthermore, we introduce -- to the best of our knowledge -- the first generative machine learning framework for molecular mixture design, demonstrated on electrolyte systems. This framework supports multi-condition-constrained generation, addressing the inherently multi-objective nature of materials design. As a proof of concept, we experimentally identified three liquid electrolytes with both high ionic conductivity and anion-concentrated solvation structure. This unified framework advances data-driven electrolyte design and can be readily extended to other complex chemical systems beyond electrolytes.

  • 13 authors
·
Apr 25, 2025

Squeeze the Soaked Sponge: Efficient Off-policy Reinforcement Finetuning for Large Language Model

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated its potential to improve the reasoning ability of Large Language Models (LLMs). One major limitation of most existing Reinforcement Finetuning (RFT) methods is that they are on-policy RL in nature, i.e., data generated during the past learning process is not fully utilized. This inevitably comes at a significant cost of compute and time, posing a stringent bottleneck on continuing economic and efficient scaling. To this end, we launch the renaissance of off-policy RL and propose Reincarnating Mix-policy Proximal Policy Gradient (ReMix), a general approach to enable on-policy RFT methods like PPO and GRPO to leverage off-policy data. ReMix consists of three major components: (1) Mix-policy proximal policy gradient with an increased Update-To-Data (UTD) ratio for efficient training; (2) KL-Convex policy constraint to balance the trade-off between stability and flexibility; (3) Policy reincarnation to achieve a seamless transition from efficient early-stage learning to steady asymptotic improvement. In our experiments, we train a series of ReMix models upon PPO, GRPO and 1.5B, 7B base models. ReMix shows an average Pass@1 accuracy of 52.10% (for 1.5B model) with 0.079M response rollouts, 350 training steps and achieves 63.27%/64.39% (for 7B model) with 0.007M/0.011M response rollouts, 50/75 training steps, on five math reasoning benchmarks (i.e., AIME'24, AMC'23, Minerva, OlympiadBench, and MATH500). Compared with 15 recent advanced models, ReMix shows SOTA-level performance with an over 30x to 450x reduction in training cost in terms of rollout data volume. In addition, we reveal insightful findings via multifaceted analysis, including the implicit preference for shorter responses due to the Whipping Effect of off-policy discrepancy, the collapse mode of self-reflection behavior under the presence of severe off-policyness, etc.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 9, 2025

KnowRL: Teaching Language Models to Know What They Know

Truly reliable AI requires more than simply scaling up knowledge; it demands the ability to know what it knows and when it does not. Yet recent research shows that even the best LLMs misjudge their own competence in more than one in five cases, making any response born of such internal uncertainty impossible to fully trust. Inspired by self-improvement reinforcement learning techniques that require minimal data, we present a simple but powerful framework KnowRL that strengthens a model's internal understanding of its own feasibility boundaries, enabling safer and more responsible behaviour. Our framework combines two components: (i) introspection, where the model generates and classifies tasks it judges feasible or infeasible, and (ii) consensus-based rewarding, where stability of self-knowledge assessment is reinforced through internal agreement. By using internally generated data, this design strengthens consistency in self-knowledge and entirely avoids costly external supervision. In experiments on LLaMA-3.1-8B and Qwen-2.5-7B, KnowRL steadily improved self-knowledge, validated by both intrinsic self-consistency and extrinsic benchmarking. With nothing more than a small seed set and no external supervision, our method drove gains as high as 28% in accuracy and 12% in F1, outperforming baselines in just a few iterations. Our framework essentially unlocks the untapped capacity of LLMs to self-improve their knowledge awareness, opening the door to reliable, more accountable AI and safer deployment in critical applications. Owing to its simplicity and independence from external effort, we encourage applying this reliability-enhancing process to all future models.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 13, 2025

Unified Conversational Recommendation Policy Learning via Graph-based Reinforcement Learning

Conversational recommender systems (CRS) enable the traditional recommender systems to explicitly acquire user preferences towards items and attributes through interactive conversations. Reinforcement learning (RL) is widely adopted to learn conversational recommendation policies to decide what attributes to ask, which items to recommend, and when to ask or recommend, at each conversation turn. However, existing methods mainly target at solving one or two of these three decision-making problems in CRS with separated conversation and recommendation components, which restrict the scalability and generality of CRS and fall short of preserving a stable training procedure. In the light of these challenges, we propose to formulate these three decision-making problems in CRS as a unified policy learning task. In order to systematically integrate conversation and recommendation components, we develop a dynamic weighted graph based RL method to learn a policy to select the action at each conversation turn, either asking an attribute or recommending items. Further, to deal with the sample efficiency issue, we propose two action selection strategies for reducing the candidate action space according to the preference and entropy information. Experimental results on two benchmark CRS datasets and a real-world E-Commerce application show that the proposed method not only significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods but also enhances the scalability and stability of CRS.

  • 5 authors
·
May 20, 2021

Dynamic Experts Search: Enhancing Reasoning in Mixture-of-Experts LLMs at Test Time

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) enhances the reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs) by allocating additional computation during inference. However, existing approaches primarily rely on output-level sampling while overlooking the role of model architecture. In mainstream Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) LLMs, we observe that varying the number of activated experts yields complementary solution sets with stable accuracy, revealing a new and underexplored source of diversity. Motivated by this observation, we propose Dynamic Experts Search (DES), a TTS strategy that elevates expert activation into a controllable dimension of the search space. DES integrates two key components: (1) Dynamic MoE, which enables direct control of expert counts during inference to generate diverse reasoning trajectories without additional cost; and (2) Expert Configuration Inheritance, which preserves consistent expert counts within a reasoning path while varying them across runs, thereby balancing stability and diversity throughout the search. Extensive experiments across MoE architectures, verifiers and reasoning benchmarks (i.e., math, code and knowledge) demonstrate that DES reliably outperforms TTS baselines, enhancing accuracy and stability without additional cost. These results highlight DES as a practical and scalable form of architecture-aware TTS, illustrating how structural flexibility in modern LLMs can advance reasoning.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 26, 2025 1

Muon: Training and Trade-offs with Latent Attention and MoE

We present a comprehensive theoretical and empirical study of the Muon optimizer for training transformers only with a small to medium decoder (30M - 200M parameters), with an emphasis on its mathematical foundations, convergence properties and synergistic interactions with modern architectural optimizations. Building on recent work showing Muon's scalability, we provide rigorous theoretical analysis including: (i)showing the convergence rate under standard assumptions, (ii) spectral regularization properties that prevent gradient explosion, (iii) connection to natural gradient descent on the Stiefel manifold, and (iv) equivalence to steepest gradient descent under the spectral norm. Crucially, we demonstrate that Muon expands the Pareto frontier in the compute-time trade-off by maintaining superior data efficiency at large batch sizes, a key finding of~essentialai2025muon that we validate across our model scales. Empirically, Muon reaches the target loss with 48-52\% of the training calculated by AdamW while maintaining or improving the final perplexity, consistent with larger-scale results. When combined with Multi-Head Latent Attention (MLA) and Mixture-of-Experts (MoE), we observe multiplicative efficiency gains: MLA+MoE+Muon achieves 68\% memory reduction and 3.2times inference speedup, while improving perplexity by 8-12\%. We provide detailed procedures on 15 architectural and optimizer components, stability analyzes across 100+ training runs, and practical implementation guidelines including Newton-Schulz coefficients (3.4445, -4.7750, 2.0315) optimized by~su2024muonblog. Our theoretical analysis and comprehensive experiments establish Muon as a principled, robust alternative to AdamW that particularly excels when combined with modern efficiency techniques and large-batch training regimes.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 29, 2025

Improving Neural Network Training by Decoupling the Magnitude and Direction of Weight Vectors

Modern neural network training relies on optimizers such as Adam and Muon which act on each weight matrix as a single object. Yet every weight matrix carries two distinct quantities -- a magnitude and a direction -- and all optimizers stepping in the matrix as a whole couple their dynamics: the directional change from an update depends on the current magnitude, while the magnitude drifts as a byproduct of learning the direction, so neither is governed directly by the learning rate. Typical training therefore leans on surrounding recipes such as weight decay and warmup to keep learning stable at scale, though these regulate the coupling only indirectly; other recent methods instead constrain the weight to a fixed-norm sphere, but add no learnable magnitude, leaving scale control to normalization layers alone. We propose Magnitude--Direction (MD) Decoupling, an optimizer modification that factorizes each weight into a fixed-norm direction on a hypersphere and learnable per-row and per-column magnitude gains, updated at separate learning rates, all while the model still sees a single fused weight tensor. The method is agnostic to the base optimizer and removes the need for weight decay and warmup. Across both Adam and Muon, MD Decoupling improves on well-tuned baselines, transfers the optimal LR across model width without retuning, and continues to help at scale on large Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models. Treating magnitude and direction as separately controlled quantities thus yields more predictable training dynamics and a simple, broadly applicable improvement to modern optimizers.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 23

Stabilizing Temporal Inference Dynamics for Online Surgical Phase Recognition

Online Surgical Phase Recognition (SPR) models can reach high frame-wise accuracy, yet their predictions often lack temporal stability, fragmenting workflow understanding and reducing the reliability of downstream assistance. We show that this instability is not random noise but arises from two mechanisms: early misclassifications corrupt temporal feature states and propagate forward to form error cascades, and phase transitions follow evidence-accumulation dynamics whereas most online SPR systems rely on memoryless frame-wise decisions, making them sensitive to transient confidence fluctuations. We propose a unified Train-Inference-Evaluation framework that explicitly stabilizes temporal inference dynamics using model-agnostic, plug-and-play components. For training, the Temporal Error-Cascade (TEC) loss suppresses error onset and mitigates forward error propagation by stabilizing temporal feature evolution. For inference, the Evidence-Gated Transition Predictor (EGTP) enforces evidence-driven state transitions, allowing phase changes only when accumulated evidence exceeds a confidence boundary. For evaluation, we introduce the Temporal Fragmentation Index (TFI), a reliability-aware metric that quantifies instability-induced temporal disagreement beyond conventional frame-wise and token-based measures. Experiments on Cholec80 and AutoLaparo across three representative backbones show that the proposed framework substantially improves temporal stability and reduces prediction fragmentation, while maintaining or modestly improving frame-wise performance.

Curl Descent: Non-Gradient Learning Dynamics with Sign-Diverse Plasticity

Gradient-based algorithms are a cornerstone of artificial neural network training, yet it remains unclear whether biological neural networks use similar gradient-based strategies during learning. Experiments often discover a diversity of synaptic plasticity rules, but whether these amount to an approximation to gradient descent is unclear. Here we investigate a previously overlooked possibility: that learning dynamics may include fundamentally non-gradient "curl"-like components while still being able to effectively optimize a loss function. Curl terms naturally emerge in networks with inhibitory-excitatory connectivity or Hebbian/anti-Hebbian plasticity, resulting in learning dynamics that cannot be framed as gradient descent on any objective. To investigate the impact of these curl terms, we analyze feedforward networks within an analytically tractable student-teacher framework, systematically introducing non-gradient dynamics through neurons exhibiting rule-flipped plasticity. Small curl terms preserve the stability of the original solution manifold, resulting in learning dynamics similar to gradient descent. Beyond a critical value, strong curl terms destabilize the solution manifold. Depending on the network architecture, this loss of stability can lead to chaotic learning dynamics that destroy performance. In other cases, the curl terms can counterintuitively speed learning compared to gradient descent by allowing the weight dynamics to escape saddles by temporarily ascending the loss. Our results identify specific architectures capable of supporting robust learning via diverse learning rules, providing an important counterpoint to normative theories of gradient-based learning in neural networks.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 3, 2025

Odysseus: Scaling VLMs to 100+ Turn Decision-Making in Games via Reinforcement Learning

Given the rapidly growing capabilities of vision-language models (VLMs), extending them to interactive decision-making tasks such as video games has emerged as a promising frontier. However, existing approaches either rely on large-scale supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on human trajectories or apply reinforcement learning (RL) only in relatively short-horizon settings (typically around 20--30 turns). In this work, we study RL-based training of VLMs for long-horizon decision-making in Super Mario Land, a visually grounded environment requiring 100+ turns of interaction with coordinated perception, reasoning, and action. We begin with a systematic investigation of key algorithmic components and propose an adapted variant of PPO with a lightweight turn-level critic, which substantially improves training stability and sample efficiency over critic-free methods such as GRPO and Reinforce++. We further show that pretrained VLMs provide strong action priors, significantly improving sample efficiency during RL training and reducing the need for manual design choices such as action engineering, compared to classical deep RL trained from scratch. Building on these insights, we introduce Odysseus, an open training framework for VLM agents, achieving substantial gains across multiple levels of the game and at least 3 times average game progresses than frontier models. Moreover, the trained models exhibit consistent improvements under both in-game and cross-game generalization settings, while maintaining general-domain capabilities. Overall, our results identify key ingredients for making RL stable and effective in long-horizon, multi-modal settings, and provide practical guidance for developing VLMs as embodied agents.

RankE: End-to-End Post-Training for Discrete Text-to-Image Generation with Decoder Co-Evolution

Discrete autoregressive (AR) text-to-image (T2I) models pair a VQ tokenizer with an AR policy, and current post-training pipelines optimize only the policy while keeping the VQ decoder frozen. Recent diffusion T2I work, exemplified by REPA-E, has shown that the VAE itself constitutes a key alignment bottleneck, yet no analogous investigation exists for discrete AR models. We show that policy-only optimization induces Latent Covariate Shift: as the policy evolves, the resulting token distribution diverges from the ground-truth distribution on which the decoder was trained, such that reward scores improve while decoded image quality degrades. To address this mismatch, we propose RankE, the first end-to-end post-training framework for discrete T2I generation. Rather than optimizing the policy against a fixed decoder, RankE co-evolves both components through alternating optimization: each module maximizes a ranking-based alignment objective while being regularized by a stability-preserving anchor suited to its parameter space. This co-evolution breaks the fidelity--alignment trade-off that plagues frozen-decoder approaches: on LlamaGen-XL (775M), standard RL improves CLIP but degrades FID, whereas RankE improves both simultaneously (FID 15.21, CLIP 33.76 on MS-COCO 30K). Consistent gains on Janus-Pro (1B) confirm that decoder co-evolution reliably converts reward optimization into pixel-space quality improvements.

SPARROW: Learning Spatial Precision and Temporal Referential Consistency in Pixel-Grounded Video MLLMs

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have advanced from image-level reasoning to pixel-level grounding, but extending these capabilities to videos remains challenging as models must achieve spatial precision and temporally consistent reference tracking. Existing video MLLMs often rely on a static segmentation token ([SEG]) for frame-wise grounding, which provides semantics but lacks temporal context, causing spatial drift, identity switches, and unstable initialization when objects move or reappear. We introduce SPARROW, a pixel-grounded video MLLM that unifies spatial accuracy and temporal stability through two key components: (i) Target-Specific Tracked Features (TSF), which inject temporally aligned referent cues during training, and (ii) a dual-prompt design that decodes box ([BOX]) and segmentation ([SEG]) tokens to fuse geometric priors with semantic grounding. SPARROW is supported by a curated referential video dataset of 30,646 videos and 45,231 Q&A pairs and operates end-to-end without external detectors via a class-agnostic SAM2-based proposer. Integrated into three recent open-source video MLLMs (UniPixel, GLUS, and VideoGLaMM), SPARROW delivers consistent gains across six benchmarks, improving up to +8.9 J&F on RVOS, +5 mIoU on visual grounding, and +5.4 CLAIR on GCG. These results demonstrate that SPARROW substantially improves referential stability, spatial precision, and temporal coherence in pixel-grounded video understanding. Project page: https://risys-lab.github.io/SPARROW

Compositional Generalization Requires Linear, Orthogonal Representations in Vision Embedding Models

Compositional generalization, the ability to recognize familiar parts in novel contexts, is a defining property of intelligent systems. Although modern models are trained on massive datasets, they still cover only a tiny fraction of the combinatorial space of possible inputs, raising the question of what structure representations must have to support generalization to unseen combinations. We formalize three desiderata for compositional generalization under standard training (divisibility, transferability, stability) and show they impose necessary geometric constraints: representations must decompose linearly into per-concept components, and these components must be orthogonal across concepts. This provides theoretical grounding for the Linear Representation Hypothesis: the linear structure widely observed in neural representations is a necessary consequence of compositional generalization. We further derive dimension bounds linking the number of composable concepts to the embedding geometry. Empirically, we evaluate these predictions across modern vision models (CLIP, SigLIP, DINO) and find that representations exhibit partial linear factorization with low-rank, near-orthogonal per-concept factors, and that the degree of this structure correlates with compositional generalization on unseen combinations. As models continue to scale, these conditions predict the representational geometry they may converge to. Code is available at https://github.com/oshapio/necessary-compositionality.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 27 3

Rotary Positional Embeddings as Phase Modulation: Theoretical Bounds on the RoPE Base for Long-Context Transformers

Rotary positional embeddings (RoPE) are widely used in large language models to encode token positions through multiplicative rotations, yet their behavior at long context lengths remains poorly characterized. In this work, we reinterpret RoPE as phase modulation applied to a bank of complex oscillators, enabling analysis through classical signal processing theory. Under this formulation, we derive principled lower bounds on the RoPE base parameter that are necessary to preserve positional coherence over a target context length. These include a fundamental aliasing bound, analogous to a Nyquist limit, and a DC-component stability bound that constrains phase drift in low-frequency positional modes. We further extend this analysis to deep transformers, showing that repeated rotary modulation across layers compounds angular misalignment, tightening the base requirement as depth increases. Complementing these results, we derive a precision-dependent upper bound on the RoPE base arising from finite floating-point resolution. Beyond this limit, incremental phase updates become numerically indistinguishable, leading to positional erasure even in the absence of aliasing. Together, the lower and upper bounds define a precision- and depth-dependent feasibility region a Goldilocks zone for long-context transformers. We validate the framework through a comprehensive case study of state-of-the-art models, including LLaMA, Mistral, and DeepSeek variants, showing that observed successes, failures, and community retrofits align closely with the predicted bounds. Notably, models that violate the stability bound exhibit attention collapse and long-range degradation, while attempts to scale beyond one million tokens encounter a hard precision wall independent of architecture or training.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 11

A Cumulative Framework for Solid Deformation

A cumulative variational framework for solid deformation is proposed. Its central organizing principle is the recursive combination of three structural components of one material body: a compatible Cosserat component, a distributed-incompatibility component, and a defect-source component. At any prescribed external condition these components constitute a combined material state. They are governed under common physical boundary and initial conditions and are coupled through one cumulative energy and the associated field equations. They are not separate boundary-value problems and need not appear in a prescribed temporal sequence. The cumulative character of the framework concerns the response of the combined state to variation of externally prescribed conditions. For the special case of an initially perfect body, loss of stability may produce successive branches with defect and then source participation. Such a sequence is a bifurcation property of the selected initial state and constitutive energy, rather than a defining hierarchy of the framework. A one-dimensional specialization illustrates structural bifurcation, residual deformation and residual stress produced by retained structure, dependence on the initial combined state, directional memory under reverse loading, parametric cumulative hysteresis, and changes of observable tangent stiffness associated with structural stabilization. A spatial extension introduces defect and source gradient terms and yields a size-dependent structural stability operator. For the stable quartic energy considered, the gradient terms regularize nonuniform perturbations but do not by themselves generate a finite-wavelength localization instability on an already stable three-component branch. The examples thereby distinguish consequences of the cumulative structure and energy from phenomena requiring additional constitutive evolution laws.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 16

Unstable Features, Reproducible Subspaces: Understanding Seed Dependence in Sparse Autoencoders

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are widely used to interpret neural network representations, but their utility depends on whether the learned features are reproducible across training runs. We study this question through feature stability: for each SAE feature, we estimate the probability that a similar feature reappears in an independently trained SAE. This yields a scalable per-feature signal that separates stable from unstable features. In a large-scale study across seeds, models, layers, dictionary sizes, and SAE variants, we find a pronounced functional asymmetry: stable features carry most of the reconstruction- and prediction-relevant signal, while unstable features have weak marginal impact and are dominated by low-frequency surface-form triggers in both activation statistics and automatic explanations. Geometrically, unstable features are individually non-reproducible but concentrate in reproducible lower-rank subspaces, suggesting that seed dependence often reflects basis ambiguity within a shared region of activation space rather than pure noise. A controlled synthetic model makes this mechanism explicit, showing that low-rank ground-truth features can be recovered at the subspace level while remaining non-identifiable as individual SAE latents across seeds. Finally, by pooling unique cross-seed features, we construct more stable SAEs while preserving explained variance in this setting. Together, these results show that unstable features are not merely failed or noisy latents: they have weak individual functional impact, but reflect reproducible low-dimensional structure that standard SAEs resolve differently across seeds.

t-tech T-Tech
·
Jun 9 2

Predicting Inference-Time Scaling Gains from Labeled Validation-Set Output Statistics

Best-of-N inference scaling (drawing N candidate answers from a language model and returning the one a reward model ranks highest) improves accuracy by an amount that varies across models, but predicting that amount in advance currently requires running the procedure end-to-end. Prior work links cheap statistics of a model's sampled outputs and validation-set correctness (how often samples agree, how diverse they are, how confident the model is, and where correct samples appear) to model behavior, but does not isolate which of these form a stable, compact predictor of best-of-N gain. We fit ridge predictors on features computed from a single labeled validation-set sampling pass, use bootstrap-Lasso as a stability analysis of the candidate feature set, and give a concentration analysis with an explicit linear-approximation residual. Across three base-model families, six post-training methods, and math and reasoning task domains, the stability analysis identifies a strict three-feature core spanning prompt-level agreement spread, label-assisted first-correct-sample position, and completion-length variance; a compact ridge predictor built from this core plus an entropy add-on reaches Spearman ρ= 0.90 with actual best-of-N gain under a reward-model verifier. The intended use is labeled validation-set screening of candidate configurations before paying the full reward-model scoring cost.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 1

Geometric Stability: The Missing Axis of Representations

Representational similarity methods compare the geometries of neural representations, but they do not measure how consistently the geometry of a single representation is recovered from subsets of its feature coordinates. We call this property geometric stability and introduce Shesha, which estimates it by correlating representational dissimilarity matrices from complementary random feature subsets. Shesha is not invariant to orthogonal rotations: representations with identical Gram matrices, and therefore identical linear CKA, can have different geometric stability. Controlled transformations further separate the quantities. Across 2{,}463 encoder configurations spanning seven domains, similarity and stability are positively associated across non-PCA transformations (ρ=+0.75) but negatively associated under PCA-coordinate compression (ρ=-0.47). We further evaluate 170 pretrained vision models across six datasets. DINOv2 combines strong transfer performance with bottom-quartile stability on five of six datasets, showing that transferability and feature-split stability need not coincide. Across random feature subsets, the marginal relationship between Shesha and linear-probe variability is dataset-dependent; after controlling for task alignment with LogME, higher Shesha is associated with lower variability on five of six datasets. These results identify geometric stability as a basis-dependent property that complements representational similarity and task alignment.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 30 2

"I May Not Have Articulated Myself Clearly": Diagnosing Dynamic Instability in LLM Reasoning at Inference Time

Reasoning failures in large language models (LLMs) are typically measured only at the end of a generation, yet many failures manifest as a process-level breakdown: the model "loses the thread" mid-reasoning. We study whether such breakdowns are detectable from inference-time observables available in standard APIs (token log probabilities), without any training or fine-tuning. We define a simple instability signal that combines consecutive-step distributional shift (JSD) and uncertainty (entropy), summarize each trace by its peak instability strength, and show that this signal reliably predicts failure. Across GSM8K and HotpotQA, instability strength predicts wrong answers with above-chance AUC and yields monotonic bucket-level accuracy decline at scale across model sizes. Crucially, we show that instability is not uniformly harmful: early instability can reflect subsequent stabilization and a correct final answer (corrective instability), whereas late instability is more often followed by failure (destructive instability), even at comparable peak magnitudes, indicating that recoverability depends not only on how strongly the distribution changes but also on when such changes occur relative to the remaining decoding horizon. The method is model-agnostic, training-free, and reproducible, and is presented as a diagnostic lens rather than a corrective or control mechanism.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 2 3

Grokking at the Edge of Numerical Stability

Grokking, the sudden generalization that occurs after prolonged overfitting, is a surprising phenomenon challenging our understanding of deep learning. Although significant progress has been made in understanding grokking, the reasons behind the delayed generalization and its dependence on regularization remain unclear. In this work, we argue that without regularization, grokking tasks push models to the edge of numerical stability, introducing floating point errors in the Softmax function, which we refer to as Softmax Collapse (SC). We demonstrate that SC prevents grokking and that mitigating SC enables grokking without regularization. Investigating the root cause of SC, we find that beyond the point of overfitting, the gradients strongly align with what we call the na\"ive loss minimization (NLM) direction. This component of the gradient does not alter the model's predictions but decreases the loss by scaling the logits, typically by scaling the weights along their current direction. We show that this scaling of the logits explains the delay in generalization characteristic of grokking and eventually leads to SC, halting further learning. To validate our hypotheses, we introduce two key contributions that address the challenges in grokking tasks: StableMax, a new activation function that prevents SC and enables grokking without regularization, and perpGrad, a training algorithm that promotes quick generalization in grokking tasks by preventing NLM altogether. These contributions provide new insights into grokking, elucidating its delayed generalization, reliance on regularization, and the effectiveness of existing grokking-inducing methods. Code for this paper is available at https://github.com/LucasPrietoAl/grokking-at-the-edge-of-numerical-stability.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 8, 2025

Crystal Diffusion Variational Autoencoder for Periodic Material Generation

Generating the periodic structure of stable materials is a long-standing challenge for the material design community. This task is difficult because stable materials only exist in a low-dimensional subspace of all possible periodic arrangements of atoms: 1) the coordinates must lie in the local energy minimum defined by quantum mechanics, and 2) global stability also requires the structure to follow the complex, yet specific bonding preferences between different atom types. Existing methods fail to incorporate these factors and often lack proper invariances. We propose a Crystal Diffusion Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE) that captures the physical inductive bias of material stability. By learning from the data distribution of stable materials, the decoder generates materials in a diffusion process that moves atomic coordinates towards a lower energy state and updates atom types to satisfy bonding preferences between neighbors. Our model also explicitly encodes interactions across periodic boundaries and respects permutation, translation, rotation, and periodic invariances. We significantly outperform past methods in three tasks: 1) reconstructing the input structure, 2) generating valid, diverse, and realistic materials, and 3) generating materials that optimize a specific property. We also provide several standard datasets and evaluation metrics for the broader machine learning community.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 12, 2021

Computing binary alloy phase diagrams with explicit configurational and vibrational entropy

Phase stability in multicomponent solid solutions depends on configurational entropy beyond the ideal mixing limit, but capturing it together with vibrational entropy within the same atomistic framework remains challenging. Here, we extend non-equilibrium thermodynamic integration to composition-dependent transformations through an alchemical interpolation of the interactions, combined with Monte Carlo identity exchange moves and molecular dynamics that sample the vibrational and non-ideal configurational entropy along the integration path. We apply the framework to the Au-Cu binary alloy using Atomic Cluster Expansion potentials trained on density functional theory data using the LDA, PBE, and r2SCAN functionals, and construct composition-temperature phase diagrams directly from atomistic free energies. We find that explicit configurational sampling lowers the AuCu order-disorder transition temperature predicted by the ACE potential trained on LDA data from approximately 810 K to 710 K, closer to the experimental value of 683 K, and substantially widens the stability range of the solid solution. At the same time, the much larger sensitivity to the exchange-correlation functional shows that this level of agreement should not be interpreted as general predictive accuracy. Non-ideal configurational entropy must therefore be sampled explicitly, alongside a careful choice of functional, for a reliable atomistic description of binary phase diagrams.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 15

On the Stability of Expressive Positional Encodings for Graph Neural Networks

Designing effective positional encodings for graphs is key to building powerful graph transformers and enhancing message-passing graph neural networks. Although widespread, using Laplacian eigenvectors as positional encodings faces two fundamental challenges: (1) Non-uniqueness: there are many different eigendecompositions of the same Laplacian, and (2) Instability: small perturbations to the Laplacian could result in completely different eigenspaces, leading to unpredictable changes in positional encoding. Despite many attempts to address non-uniqueness, most methods overlook stability, leading to poor generalization on unseen graph structures. We identify the cause of instability to be a "hard partition" of eigenspaces. Hence, we introduce Stable and Expressive Positional Encodings (SPE), an architecture for processing eigenvectors that uses eigenvalues to "softly partition" eigenspaces. SPE is the first architecture that is (1) provably stable, and (2) universally expressive for basis invariant functions whilst respecting all symmetries of eigenvectors. Besides guaranteed stability, we prove that SPE is at least as expressive as existing methods, and highly capable of counting graph structures. Finally, we evaluate the effectiveness of our method on molecular property prediction, and out-of-distribution generalization tasks, finding improved generalization compared to existing positional encoding methods.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 4, 2023

Dynamics around non-spherical symmetric bodies - III. The case of a spherical body with a crater

Motivated by the peculiar features of the trans-Neptunian object (TNO) Máni and the discovery of ring systems around Centaurs and trans-Neptunian bodies, we investigate the stability of particles around a small irregular body hosting a deep equatorial crater. This study is the third contribution in a sequence devoted to the dynamics around non-spherically symmetric bodies. Using Máni as a reference model, whose crater depth exceeds 10% of its radius, we map the system stability through complementary methods: Poincaré surfaces of section (PSS), survival maps, and the finite-time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE). In the nominal case, the 1!:!1, 2!:!1, 3!:!1, and 4!:!1 spin-orbit resonances (SORs) are consistently identified by all techniques. The prominent 3!:!1 SOR exhibits a bifurcated structure at high eccentricities, matching structural transitions observed at lower Jacobi constant values in the PSSs. Increasing the rotation rate (λ) and crater mass ratio (μ) enlarges resonance widths and promotes overlap, making the 2!:!1 and 4!:!1 SORs progressively dominant. Lower rotation rates allow stable trajectories to persist at higher eccentricities, whereas the 1!:!1 SOR is highly sensitive to stronger perturbations and disappears in the most extreme cases. In contrast to mass-anomaly models, which can clear the region interior to the 2!:!1 SOR, the crater configuration considered here preserves stable regions in this vicinity, suggesting alternative scenarios for the formation and maintenance of debris structures around irregular minor bodies.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 4

Post-Grokking Collapse at the Representation-Readout Interface in Muon-Trained Transformers

Under the standard split, Muon gets hidden matrices and AdamW embeddings/output head. Muon groks modular addition faster, but its solutions do not hold. All nine configurations on (a+b) bmod 113 grok and later lose generalization. Across five seeds the selected AdamW reference falls below threshold on four, reaching 27.59%. Instability persists across two moduli, two widths, two training fractions, subtraction, and depth. The failure arises at the representation-readout interface, identified only jointly up to an invertible map unselected by the loss. After solving the training set, the gradient falls to order 10^{-6} and the optimizers respond differently: step-size elasticity is -0.03 for Muon versus +1.5 for AdamW, and the Muon group moves 8.0 times faster per parameter. From bit-identical states, freezing either group prevents failure. Freezing embeddings/readout removes it in five runs over 451,400 post-grokking steps and five paired seeds: unfrozen arms record 137-321 sub-threshold evaluations, frozen arms none. Removing Muon's normalization and orthogonalization is no substitute: it collapses representation from 326 effective conjugate pairs to 4, shows no recurrent collapse, and fails terminally. Fourier filtering separates circuit failure from masking. Across 43 checkpoints over five seeds and three regimes, the task-aligned family reaches exactly 100% alone. In circuit failure it no longer solves the task; in masking it remains perfect while the full model reaches 45.85%, giving a positive margin on every example, including errors, but being outvoted by a near-equal adversarial remainder. Rescaling it restores 99.9%; grokking is the same condition resolving upward. The task selects the family, swapping (k,k) for (k,-k) under subtraction. Across an abrupt collapse, standard Fourier support is unchanged and the power-distribution cosine remains 0.9899.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 6

Small-scale proxies for large-scale Transformer training instabilities

Teams that have trained large Transformer-based models have reported training instabilities at large scale that did not appear when training with the same hyperparameters at smaller scales. Although the causes of such instabilities are of scientific interest, the amount of resources required to reproduce them has made investigation difficult. In this work, we seek ways to reproduce and study training stability and instability at smaller scales. First, we focus on two sources of training instability described in previous work: the growth of logits in attention layers (Dehghani et al., 2023) and divergence of the output logits from the log probabilities (Chowdhery et al., 2022). By measuring the relationship between learning rate and loss across scales, we show that these instabilities also appear in small models when training at high learning rates, and that mitigations previously employed at large scales are equally effective in this regime. This prompts us to investigate the extent to which other known optimizer and model interventions influence the sensitivity of the final loss to changes in the learning rate. To this end, we study methods such as warm-up, weight decay, and the muParam (Yang et al., 2022), and combine techniques to train small models that achieve similar losses across orders of magnitude of learning rate variation. Finally, to conclude our exploration we study two cases where instabilities can be predicted before they emerge by examining the scaling behavior of model activation and gradient norms.

  • 16 authors
·
Sep 25, 2023 2

Steady-Forcing: Balancing Spatial Persistence and Motion Continuity in Long-Horizon Nature Video Diffusion

Autoregressive video diffusion models enable streaming generation but often degrade over long rollouts: static scene layouts drift, while mechanisms that improve spatial stability tend to suppress motion, causing natural flows such as water, fire, or smoke to stagnate. We study this stability-motion trade-off in fixed-camera long-horizon nature video generation, where the two failure modes can be more clearly separated than in moving-camera settings. We propose Steady-Forcing, a memory and training framework combining a persistent visual anchor (V-Sink), an exponential moving-average motion memory (EMA-Sink), block-relative temporal encoding, periodic cache purification, and distillation from a Wan2.1-14B teacher with motion-rewarded priors under task-focused configurations. Together, these components are designed to preserve background identity while sustaining visually plausible fluid dynamics over multi-minute autoregressive rollouts. Evaluations across seven baselines show that Steady-Forcing improves long horizon background consistency and imaging quality, while a blind user study indicates stronger perceived stability and motion continuity. The benchmark evaluation further suggest that generic VBench aggregate scores under-penalize fixed-camera artifacts as well as rewarding drift-induced optical flow as Dynamic Degree while not directly penalizing texture hardening or flow stagnation - motivating future task-specific benchmarks for static-camera nature-flow evaluation. Project page: https://minar09.github.io/steadyforcing/

Matbench Discovery -- An evaluation framework for machine learning crystal stability prediction

Matbench Discovery simulates the deployment of machine learning (ML) energy models in a high-throughput search for stable inorganic crystals. We address the disconnect between (i) thermodynamic stability and formation energy and (ii) in-domain vs out-of-distribution performance. Alongside this paper, we publish a Python package to aid with future model submissions and a growing online leaderboard with further insights into trade-offs between various performance metrics. To answer the question which ML methodology performs best at materials discovery, our initial release explores a variety of models including random forests, graph neural networks (GNN), one-shot predictors, iterative Bayesian optimizers and universal interatomic potentials (UIP). Ranked best-to-worst by their test set F1 score on thermodynamic stability prediction, we find CHGNet > M3GNet > MACE > ALIGNN > MEGNet > CGCNN > CGCNN+P > Wrenformer > BOWSR > Voronoi tessellation fingerprints with random forest. The top 3 models are UIPs, the winning methodology for ML-guided materials discovery, achieving F1 scores of ~0.6 for crystal stability classification and discovery acceleration factors (DAF) of up to 5x on the first 10k most stable predictions compared to dummy selection from our test set. We also highlight a sharp disconnect between commonly used global regression metrics and more task-relevant classification metrics. Accurate regressors are susceptible to unexpectedly high false-positive rates if those accurate predictions lie close to the decision boundary at 0 eV/atom above the convex hull where most materials are. Our results highlight the need to focus on classification metrics that actually correlate with improved stability hit rate.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 28, 2023

Energy-barrier characterization of secured basins in coupled oscillators with inertia

The second-order Kuramoto model captures rotor dynamics relevant to synchronization in power grids. In actual power grids, violation of angle-stability limits can trigger protective actions that are not included in the model, restricting its validity to trajectories that remain within these limits. We therefore define the secured basin as the region of disturbance space comprising disturbances whose trajectories remain within the angle-stability limits throughout the transient. We then characterize the secured basin through energy barriers, quantifying their characteristic energy scale and heterogeneity across perturbation directions. Across seven power-grid models, this characterization revealed angle-stability vulnerabilities overlooked when stability is assessed solely by the final synchronization state. It also showed that the two energy-barrier measures characterizing the secured basin exhibit distinct associations with structural connectivity and dynamical parameters. This characterization further offers practical advantages, as energy thresholds derived from state-space perturbations remain effective in distinguishing secured and unsecured outcomes under short-duration power disturbances and can be estimated efficiently by concentrating simulations near the secured-basin boundary. Overall, the secured-basin framework provides a useful basis for distinguishing node-level structural and dynamical influences on transient stability in oscillator networks with synchronization constraints.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 7

Harness Continual Learning: Continual Adaptation Beyond Model Parameters

Continual learning has largely been model-centric, treating model parameters as the state that changes with sequential experience. Modern agents can also adapt through a harness of prompts, memories, tools, skills, and routing rules. Because these contents jointly shape later execution, a harness update can disrupt previously reliable behavior even when the model is frozen. This raises a new question: how can an agent continually improve its state outside the model while retaining behavior acquired earlier? We formulate Harness Continual Learning (HCL), a new continual learning paradigm in which the harness evolves around a frozen foundation model, and define the resulting loss of earlier behavior as harness-level forgetting. We instantiate HCL with four execution-facing components: the Task Interface, Experience Memory, Capability Map, and Adaptive Router. We further introduce guarded harness evolution to separate update generation from state commitment. A Continual Optimizer proposes candidate harnesses from post-execution feedback, and a Continual Evaluator commits the resulting candidate harness only after checking current improvement, historical retention, and validity. Experiments on textual reasoning, multimodal perception, and open-world interaction demonstrate capability accumulation and failure recovery, with relative gains exceeding 10% over corresponding baselines in multiple settings. Component ablations assess the contribution of each harness component, while controlled retention sweeps reveal measurable harness-level forgetting and show that the stability--plasticity trade-off can be explicitly adjusted.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 18

OLIVE: Online Low-Rank Incremental Learning for Efficient Adaptive Exoskeletons

Wearable exoskeleton systems hold promise for restoring mobility in individuals with physical impairments, yet most existing controllers rely on static gait policies that cannot adapt to dynamic real-world environments or individual user characteristics. We present OLIVE (Online Low-rank Incremental Learning for Efficient Adaptive Exoskeletons), a parameter-efficient online adaptation framework that continuously personalizes exoskeleton control during deployment. OLIVE decomposes the adaptive component of the control policy into a low-rank residual form ΔW = A_t B_t^top with rank r ll min(d,k), reducing the online update cost from O(dk) to O(r(d+k)) while preserving the stability of a pretrained base controller W_0. Parameters are updated through a reward-shaped policy gradient driven purely by on-body sensor feedback, including EMG, IMU, and vibration signals, eliminating dependence on offline reference trajectories. A gating mechanism modulates the strength of personalization based on the contextual state, while a dynamic rank scheduler adapts the update dimensionality to terrain complexity. It allocates minimal capacity on simple flat terrain and expands to higher-rank updates on demanding uneven surfaces, enabling robust performance across flat walking, stair navigation, slopes, and uneven terrain. Experiments on the wearable platform demonstrate that OLIVE achieves improvements of 13, 22, and 15 percentage points in gait smoothness, effort reduction, and motion stability over the strongest baseline, respectively. It converges within approximately 1,800 walking steps with an end-to-end latency of 7.4 ms. Our code implementation is available at https://github.com/FastLM/OLIVE.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 8

Hybrid Gated Flow (HGF): Stabilizing 1.58-bit LLMs via Selective Low-Rank Correction

The deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) on edge devices is fundamentally constrained by the "Memory Wall" -- a hardware limitation where memory bandwidth, not compute, becomes the bottleneck. Recent 1.58-bit quantization techniques (e.g., BitNet b1.58) dramatically reduce memory footprint but typically incur a perplexity degradation of 20-25% compared to FP16 baselines. In this work, we introduce Hybrid Gated Flow (HGF), a dual-stream architecture that couples a 1.58-bit ternary backbone with a learnable, low-rank FP16 correction path controlled by adaptive gates. Through extensive experiments on the TinyStories dataset across two training regimes (2500 and 3500 steps), we demonstrate that HGF 5.4 achieves a validation loss of 0.9306 compared to BitNet's 1.0294, recovering approximately 55% of the quality gap between pure ternary quantization and the FP16 baseline (0.8490). This recovery is achieved with only ~12-15% memory overhead beyond the ternary backbone. Furthermore, we provide empirical evidence for an emergent phenomenon: quantization as structural regularization. While a full-precision differential attention baseline (Diff_Only) exhibited training instability with validation loss exceeding 1.68, the ternary-anchored HGF maintained robust convergence throughout training. Finally, we report preliminary results extending this architecture to 1.2B and 3B parameter models trained on SlimPajama and FineWeb-Edu. These larger-scale experiments confirm that the architectural stability and quality recovery observed in small-scale proxies scale linearly to production-grade language modeling regimes.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 4

Do RUL explanations hold up? Faithfulness and stability of attributions on C-MAPSS

Deep remaining-useful-life (RUL) models on NASA C-MAPSS are now routine, and so are heatmaps that colour sensors and timesteps. A heatmap that looks mechanical is not the same as an explanation an engineer can act on. We train three standard architectures - a 1D CNN, an LSTM, and a small Transformer encoder - on the official FD001 and FD003 splits with the piecewise RUL cap of 125 cycles and the official PHM08 asymmetric score. We then attach three attribution maps (Integrated Gradients, occlusion, last-layer attention) and evaluate them with the checks the XAI-for-PdM literature still under-reports: deletion/insertion faithfulness, Spearman stability under sensor-scale noise, agreement across training seeds, and cosine consistency inside RUL bins. Prediction error is a prerequisite, not the claim. The headline is which explanation method moves the RUL output when its top cells are removed, and which map survives a 5% input perturbation. Integrated Gradients and occlusion are similarly faithful on the LSTM; Transformer attention is cheap and temporally smooth but weakly faithful. All three maps are almost unchanged under 5% input noise, yet IG/occlusion agree only moderately across two LSTM seeds - stability to sensor jitter is not the same as stability to retraining. A secondary tabular check on the AI4I 2020 failure dataset shows the same deletion pattern for tree importances. We recommend occlusion or IG for any C-MAPSS-style report that will be read by a maintenance engineer, and we treat raw attention weights as a visualisation only.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 2

Agent Bazaar: Enabling Economic Alignment in Multi-Agent Marketplaces

The deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) as autonomous economic agents introduces systemic risks that extend beyond individual capability failures. As agents transition to directly interacting with marketplaces, their collective behavior can amplify volatility and mask deception at scale. We introduce the Agent Bazaar, a multi-agent simulation framework for evaluating Economic Alignment, the capacity of agentic systems to preserve market stability and integrity. We identify two failure modes: (1) Algorithmic Instability in a B2C market ("The Crash"), where firms amplify price volatility until the market collapses, and (2) Sybil Deception in a C2C market ("The Lemon Market"), where a single deceptive agent controlling multiple coordinated seller identities floods the market with fraudulent listings, eroding trust and consumer welfare. We evaluate frontier and open-weight models across both scenarios and find that models largely fail to self-regulate, with failure severity varying by model rather than by size. We propose economically aligned harnesses, Stabilizing Firms and Skeptical Guardians, that improve outcomes but remain fragile under harder market conditions. To close this gap, we train agents with REINFORCE++ using an adaptive curriculum, producing a 9B model that outperforms all evaluated frontier and open-weight models. We propose the Economic Alignment Score (EAS), a 4-component scalar metric aggregating stability, integrity, welfare, and profitability, enabling direct cross-model comparison. Our results show that economic alignment is orthogonal to general capability and can be directly trained with targeted RL.

Scalable and Efficient Continual Learning from Demonstration via a Hypernetwork-generated Stable Dynamics Model

Robots capable of learning from demonstration (LfD) must exhibit stability while executing learned motion skills. To be effective in the real world, they should also remember multiple skills over time -- a capability lacking in current stable-LfD methods. We propose an approach to stable, continual LfD, and highlight the role of stability in improving continual learning. Our proposed hypernetwork generates the parameters of two neural networks: a trajectory learning dynamics model, and a trajectory-stabilizing Lyapunov function. These generated networks form a clock-augmented stable neural ODE solver (sNODE), a stable dynamics model that offers a superior stability-accuracy trade-off compared to the state-of-the-art. We further propose stochastic hypernetwork regularization with a single, uniformly-sampled task embedding, reducing the cumulative training time for N tasks from O(N^2) to O(N) without degrading performance on real-world tasks. We introduce high-dimensional variants of the popular LASA dataset to assess scalability and extend a dataset of robotic LfD tasks to assess real-world performance. We empirically evaluate our approach on multiple LfD datasets of varying complexity, including sequences of 7--26 tasks, trajectories of 2--32 dimensions, and real-world tasks involving position and orientation. Our thorough evaluation on multiple LfD datasets demonstrates that our approach sequentially learns and retains multiple motion skills without retraining on past demonstrations, and outperforms other relevant baselines in terms of trajectory errors, continual learning scores, and stability metrics. Notably, we show that stability greatly enhances continual learning performance, particularly in size-efficient chunked hypernetworks. Our code is available at https://github.com/sayantanauddy/clfd-snode.

  • 5 authors
·
May 10

Autonomous Deep Agent

This technical brief introduces Deep Agent, an advanced autonomous AI system designed to manage complex multi-phase tasks through a novel hierarchical task management architecture. The system's foundation is built on our Hierarchical Task DAG (HTDAG) framework, which dynamically decomposes high-level objectives into manageable sub-tasks while rigorously maintaining dependencies and execution coherence. Deep Agent advances beyond traditional agent systems through three key innovations: First, it implements a recursive two-stage planner-executor architecture that enables continuous task refinement and adaptation as circumstances change. Second, it features an Autonomous API & Tool Creation (AATC) system that automatically generates reusable components from UI interactions, substantially reducing operational costs for similar tasks. Third, it incorporates Prompt Tweaking Engine and Autonomous Prompt Feedback Learning components that optimize Large Language Model prompts for specific scenarios, enhancing both inference accuracy and operational stability. These components are integrated to form a service infrastructure that manages user contexts, handles complex task dependencies, and orchestrates end-to-end agentic workflow execution. Through this sophisticated architecture, Deep Agent establishes a novel paradigm in self-governing AI systems, demonstrating robust capability to independently handle intricate, multi-step tasks while maintaining consistent efficiency and reliability through continuous self-optimization.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 10, 2025

Expert-Space Exploration in MoE Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become central to post-training of large language models. Recent advances in RL for Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models have primarily focused on improving optimization stability and training efficiency, while treating the expert selection as a fixed component. Since routing determines the sparse computation paths that induce output distributions, expert selection offers an additional source of rollout diversity. Through empirical analysis, we find that perturbing expert routing effectively alters model output and increases rollout diversity, which is similar to increasing the decoding temperature. However, direct perturbation can activate unsuitable experts and substantially degrade rollout quality. Motivated by these observations, we introduce Expert-Space Exploration Reinforcement Learning (ESRL), an architecture-aware framework that explicitly explores the expert-routing space of MoE models. ESRL preserves high-confidence experts as anchors, and restricts stochastic routing to a plausible candidate pool, thereby retaining reliable computation paths. The perturbation strength is further adapted according to router entropy to avoid over-perturbation. To mitigate the routing mismatch introduced by perturbation, ESRL records the expert paths used during rollout and replays them during policy optimization. Experiments demonstrate that ESRL achieves the best performance across MoE backbones with top-K, top-1, and shared-expert routing, as well as across mathematics, science, and code tasks without additional sampling or computational cost. Specifically, ESRL on Qwen3-30B-A3B achieves the best among all compared methods, improving average Pass@1 and Pass@8 over GRPO by 3.2 and 4.5 percentage points, respectively. Further analyses of expert utilization and training dynamics provide insights into how exploiting MoE-specific routing structure benefits RL training.

LLM2Cert: LLM Synthesis of Certificates with SMT/Lean Verification

Lyapunov functions and barrier certificates give state-space guarantees of stability and safety, but synthesizing and verifying them---especially for nonlinear, high-dimensional systems---remains an open challenge. Existing pipelines verify candidates with numerical solvers (sum-of-squares programs), interval methods, or satisfiability-modulo-theories (SMT) solvers, which often require relaxations, are conservative, or scale poorly with model dimension and nonlinearity. These limitations have also shaped benchmark design: standard test suites are dominated by low-dimensional polynomial systems chosen to suit what solvers can handle rather than what engineering applications require. We address both sides of this challenge. First, we introduce DynaCertBench, a benchmark of 105 instances: 80 non-redundant systems curated from the literature, extended with high-dimensional and control-constrained variants and new nonlinearly coupled systems, comprehensively spanning stability, region-of-attraction, forward-invariance, and safety tasks. Second, we present LLM2Cert, an LLM-driven framework that synthesizes candidate certificates and verifies them against their proof obligations: each obligation is routed to an SMT solver or directly to the Lean Proof-Repair agent. On DynaCertBench, LLM2Cert verifies 81 of 105 instances (77.1%), a 17.1 percentage point improvement over one-shot proposal without feedback. On the 81 fixed certificates, LLM2Cert verifies 22 that All-SMT leaves unresolved. Code and data are available at https://github.com/FormalCert-AI/llm2cert.

A Framework for Fast and Stable Representations of Multiparameter Persistent Homology Decompositions

Topological data analysis (TDA) is an area of data science that focuses on using invariants from algebraic topology to provide multiscale shape descriptors for geometric data sets such as point clouds. One of the most important such descriptors is {\em persistent homology}, which encodes the change in shape as a filtration parameter changes; a typical parameter is the feature scale. For many data sets, it is useful to simultaneously vary multiple filtration parameters, for example feature scale and density. While the theoretical properties of single parameter persistent homology are well understood, less is known about the multiparameter case. In particular, a central question is the problem of representing multiparameter persistent homology by elements of a vector space for integration with standard machine learning algorithms. Existing approaches to this problem either ignore most of the multiparameter information to reduce to the one-parameter case or are heuristic and potentially unstable in the face of noise. In this article, we introduce a new general representation framework that leverages recent results on {\em decompositions} of multiparameter persistent homology. This framework is rich in information, fast to compute, and encompasses previous approaches. Moreover, we establish theoretical stability guarantees under this framework as well as efficient algorithms for practical computation, making this framework an applicable and versatile tool for analyzing geometric and point cloud data. We validate our stability results and algorithms with numerical experiments that demonstrate statistical convergence, prediction accuracy, and fast running times on several real data sets.

StableWorld: Towards Stable and Consistent Long Interactive Video Generation

In this paper, we explore the overlooked challenge of stability and temporal consistency in interactive video generation, which synthesizes dynamic and controllable video worlds through interactive behaviors such as camera movements and text prompts. Despite remarkable progress in world modeling, current methods still suffer from severe instability and temporal degradation, often leading to spatial drift and scene collapse during long-horizon interactions. To better understand this issue, we initially investigate the underlying causes of instability and identify that the major source of error accumulation originates from the same scene, where generated frames gradually deviate from the initial clean state and propagate errors to subsequent frames. Building upon this observation, we propose a simple yet effective method, StableWorld, a Dynamic Frame Eviction Mechanism. By continuously filtering out degraded frames while retaining geometrically consistent ones, StableWorld effectively prevents cumulative drift at its source, leading to more stable and temporal consistency of interactive generation. Promising results on multiple interactive video models, \eg, Matrix-Game, Open-Oasis, and Hunyuan-GameCraft, demonstrate that StableWorld is model-agnostic and can be applied to different interactive video generation frameworks to substantially improve stability, temporal consistency, and generalization across diverse interactive scenarios.

  • 9 authors
·
Jan 21

Periodic Trends and a Physics-Based Multistage Search for High-T_c Hydride Superconductors

Hydrogen-rich materials under pressure are candidates for conventional phonon-mediated superconductivity, but first-principles electron--phonon-coupling (EPC) calculations are computationally demanding. We develop an interpretable multistage workflow for prioritizing binary hydride superconductors before full EPC calculations. Using controlled cubic X_mH_n prototypes at 200~GPa, we introduce the spectral moment A_1 as an intermediate measure of electron--phonon perturbation strength. In its linewidth-based construction, A_1 remains finite as harmonic phonons soften, allowing related structures with imaginary harmonic modes to be screened; it does not establish superconductivity or physical realizability for unstable structures. For dynamically stable cubic systems, A_1 correlates strongly with the H-1s density-of-states fraction at the Fermi level, α, a projected Fermi-surface descriptor, β, and atomic number density, ρ. These trends are summarized heuristically by A_1approx hαβρ, where h is framework- and pressure-dependent; the descriptor is used for ranking, not as a universal T_c predictor. We incorporate αβρ and enthalpic competitiveness into a three-stage evolutionary search comprising multiobjective structural screening, harmonic-phonon stability filtering, and coarse density-functional perturbation-theory (DFPT) EPC calculations. Application to more than 100,000 binary hydride structures at 50 and 200~GPa identifies candidates and prioritizes NaH_6 structural families. Higher-accuracy calculations show that Pm3m NaH_6 is dynamically stable down to 50~GPa and has a harmonic Allen--Dynes estimate of T_capprox230~K. The framework combines electronic descriptors with progressively more expensive stability and EPC calculations for scalable hydride exploration.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 27

Preserving Unstable Modes Through Inverse Dynamics in JEPA World Models

Robotic systems often exhibit unstable modes, along which small perturbations and disturbances can cause unbounded growth unless corrected through feedback. Controlling such systems from high-dimensional visual observations requires representations that preserve these modes. Joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) provide a natural framework for learning such representations and their dynamics from visual data. However, we demonstrate that next step prediction combined with anti-collapse regularization does not guarantee that controllable unstable modes are preserved: the training loss can be minimized while these modes are collapsed, making stabilization from the learned representation impossible. To address this, we augment world-model training with an action reconstruction objective (i.e., an inverse dynamics loss) that encourages control-aware representations, namely, visual representations that preserve crucial features for control. We prove that exact action reconstruction makes the encoder injective on the finite-horizon reachable subspace. Thus, the encoder cannot discard any state direction reachable by an action sequence within H steps. Moreover, we show that, as H grows, the dominant eigenspace of the finite-horizon controllability Gramian converges to the controllable unstable subspace. We establish our theoretical results for linear systems and demonstrate empirically that our findings extend to nonlinear visual control tasks (CartPole, Walker2D, and PointMaze), highlighting the benefits of control-aware representation learning.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 5

Segmentation variability and radiomics stability for predicting Triple-Negative Breast Cancer subtype using Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Most papers caution against using predictive models for disease stratification based on unselected radiomic features, as these features are affected by contouring variability. Instead, they advocate for the use of the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) as a measure of stability for feature selection. However, the direct effect of segmentation variability on the predictive models is rarely studied. This study investigates the impact of segmentation variability on feature stability and predictive performance in radiomics-based prediction of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) subtype using Magnetic Resonance Imaging. A total of 244 images from the Duke dataset were used, with segmentation variability introduced through modifications of manual segmentations. For each mask, explainable radiomic features were selected using the Shapley Additive exPlanations method and used to train logistic regression models. Feature stability across segmentations was assessed via ICC, Pearson's correlation, and reliability scores quantifying the relationship between feature stability and segmentation variability. Results indicate that segmentation accuracy does not significantly impact predictive performance. While incorporating peritumoral information may reduce feature reproducibility, it does not diminish feature predictive capability. Moreover, feature selection in predictive models is not inherently tied to feature stability with respect to segmentation, suggesting that an overreliance on ICC or reliability scores for feature selection might exclude valuable predictive features.

  • 7 authors
·
Apr 2, 2025

Synergistic Fusion of Multi-Source Knowledge via Evidence Theory for High-Entropy Alloy Discovery

Discovering novel high-entropy alloys (HEAs) with desirable properties is challenging due to the vast compositional space and complex phase formation mechanisms. Efficient exploration of this space requires a strategic approach that integrates heterogeneous knowledge sources. Here, we propose a framework that systematically combines knowledge extracted from computational material datasets with domain knowledge distilled from scientific literature using large language models (LLMs). A central feature of this approach is the explicit consideration of element substitutability, identifying chemically similar elements that can be interchanged to potentially stabilize desired HEAs. Dempster-Shafer theory, a mathematical framework for reasoning under uncertainty, is employed to model and combine substitutabilities based on aggregated evidence from multiple sources. The framework predicts the phase stability of candidate HEA compositions and is systematically evaluated on both quaternary alloy systems, demonstrating superior performance compared to baseline machine learning models and methods reliant on single-source evidence in cross-validation experiments. By leveraging multi-source knowledge, the framework retains robust predictive power even when key elements are absent from the training data, underscoring its potential for knowledge transfer and extrapolation. Furthermore, the enhanced interpretability of the methodology offers insights into the fundamental factors governing HEA formation. Overall, this work provides a promising strategy for accelerating HEA discovery by integrating computational and textual knowledge sources, enabling efficient exploration of vast compositional spaces with improved generalization and interpretability.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 20, 2025

One-for-All: A Lightweight Stabilized and Parameter-Efficient Pre-trained LLM for Time Series Forecasting

We address the challenge of adapting pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) for multivariate time-series analysis, where their deployment is often hindered by prohibitive computational and memory demands. Our solution, One-for-All, introduces Gaussian Rank-Stabilized Low-Rank Adapters (rsLoRA) to enable parameter-efficient fine-tuning of frozen LLMs. While inspired by LoRA, rsLoRA introduces a mathematically grounded rank-stabilization mechanism that enables provable gradient stability at low ranks a novel contribution absent in prior PEFT methods. Our framework injects trainable rank decomposition matrices (rank 16) into positional embeddings and output layers, while keeping self-attention weights fixed. This design reduces trainable parameters by 6.8times (vs. TimesNet), 21times (vs. GPT4TS), and 11.8times (vs. TIME-LLM), while achieving a 168-1,776times smaller memory footprint (2.2MiB vs. 340MiB-4.18GiB in SOTA models). Rigorous evaluation across six time-series tasks demonstrates that One-for-All achieves state-of-the-art efficiency-accuracy trade-offs: 5.5times higher parameter efficiency (MSE=5.50) than TimesNet and 21times better than GPT4TS, while matching their forecasting accuracy (MSE=0.33). The framework's stability is validated through consistent performance across diverse horizons (96-720 steps) and datasets (ETT, Weather, M3, M4), with 98.3% fewer parameters than conventional transformers. These advances enable deployment on edge devices for healthcare, finance, and environmental monitoring without compromising performance.

  • 3 authors
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Mar 30

Representation Transitions Reveal Predictive Structure in Complex Systems: A Trajectory-Level Reconstruction in a Critical System

Trajectories in complex systems often contain structure that is not captured by the population-averaged, scalar statistics traditionally used to describe them. Here we reconstruct, through independent numerical re-simulation rather than literature review, a systematic search across representational forms - from single scalar statistics, through two independent discrete multi-feature classification attempts, to a trajectory-level structural representation and a diagnostic surrogate test, to a continuous low-dimensional compression - applied to the same underlying trajectory ensemble in a critical complex system. Predictive failure is not explained by insufficient correlation: one discrete representation's own strongest individual feature correlates with the target more strongly (r=0.588) than the eventual successful representation's own headline statistic (r=0.540), yet fails to separate the ensemble's two most consequential cases - while the continuous representation succeeds, robustly, across eight independent scale-removal folds (r=0.677-0.717, all p<0.001). The determining factor was not correlation strength but whether the representation preserved the structure relevant to prediction. These results indicate that the choice of representation determines whether predictive structure in complex systems becomes accessible - a scientific variable in its own right, not a downstream analysis choice.

  • 1 authors
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Aug 29

StableMaterials: Enhancing Diversity in Material Generation via Semi-Supervised Learning

We introduce StableMaterials, a novel approach for generating photorealistic physical-based rendering (PBR) materials that integrate semi-supervised learning with Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs). Our method employs adversarial training to distill knowledge from existing large-scale image generation models, minimizing the reliance on annotated data and enhancing the diversity in generation. This distillation approach aligns the distribution of the generated materials with that of image textures from an SDXL model, enabling the generation of novel materials that are not present in the initial training dataset. Furthermore, we employ a diffusion-based refiner model to improve the visual quality of the samples and achieve high-resolution generation. Finally, we distill a latent consistency model for fast generation in just four steps and propose a new tileability technique that removes visual artifacts typically associated with fewer diffusion steps. We detail the architecture and training process of StableMaterials, the integration of semi-supervised training within existing LDM frameworks and show the advantages of our approach. Comparative evaluations with state-of-the-art methods show the effectiveness of StableMaterials, highlighting its potential applications in computer graphics and beyond. StableMaterials is publicly available at https://gvecchio.com/stablematerials.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 13, 2024

Intervention anchors and scientific verification in synthetic vascular predictive representations

Complete orthogonal predictive coordinates do not by themselves bind a latent direction to a named intervention. We present a mathematical and synthetic audit motivated by vascular device-vessel suitcordance. Capacity-matched least-squares predictors were exactly equivalent under complete fixed output transforms, whereas an anchor-only observer recovered interpretations only within the span of known perturbation signatures. Six three-dimensional configurations across 64 seeds gave a maximum paired prediction discrepancy of 6.7e-15 but a median untransported edit error of 1.513. Coordinate transport removed that error. Noisy and weak anchors constrained calibration stability, and changing the representation basis required recalibration or verified transport. Across 256 additional fits in dimensions 3-24, prediction equivalence persisted within 4.0e-15. We then evaluated nine deliberate runnable fault classes across 64 seeds. All 576 faulty executions completed, but each violated at least one reconstruction, prediction, delivered-edit or scope contract; all 320 valid control records passed. Repeating a faulty implementation gave exact self-agreement despite error against the separately computed simulator expectation. For one omitted-direction defect, probe coverage followed its analytic law, and rank-aware abstention protected unsupported interpretations. Scalar-noise experiments exposed both missed weak faults and excessive rejection under narrow relative tolerances. These controls provide an executable separation of prediction, semantic support and scientific acceptance. They are synthetic numerical audits, not clinical validation, neural JEPA-Anything replication, agent learning or patient treatment-effect estimation.

  • 7 authors
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Oct 7

An Idealized Delay-Differential Model of Scuba Diver Porpoising and Runaway Ascent

A scuba diver holding constant depth balances on an unstable equilibrium: the gas carried in the suit and buoyancy compensator compresses with depth, so the buoyant force falls as the diver sinks and rises as the diver ascends. We represent the diver as a proportional-derivative controller that regulates this compressible-buoyancy saddle after a finite reaction delay, and we derive the governing delay differential equation from the vertical force balance and the isothermal gas law, reducing it to a damping ratio, two control gains, and a dimensionless delay. The characteristic spectrum, obtained by pseudospectral collocation of the semigroup generator and checked against a direct Newton solution of the characteristic equation, locates the Hopf boundary that separates stable hovering from sustained porpoising; for the baseline diver the critical reaction delay is 3.36 s and the onset period is 28.8 s. The bifurcation is supercritical, and because the saturating force is the quadratic hydrodynamic drag, the limit-cycle amplitude grows in proportion to the delay excess rather than as its square root. The safe-operating envelope shows that runaway ascent is triggered by saturation of the compensator, not by loss of linear stability, so a stable and an unstable diver can share the same escape threshold. As onset is approached, the lag-one autocorrelation and variance rise while the fitted recovery rate falls and matches the spectral abscissa, giving an eigenvalue-exact early warning of the transition.

  • 8 authors
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Aug 14

Stabilizing Transformer Training by Preventing Attention Entropy Collapse

Training stability is of great importance to Transformers. In this work, we investigate the training dynamics of Transformers by examining the evolution of the attention layers. In particular, we track the attention entropy for each attention head during the course of training, which is a proxy for model sharpness. We identify a common pattern across different architectures and tasks, where low attention entropy is accompanied by high training instability, which can take the form of oscillating loss or divergence. We denote the pathologically low attention entropy, corresponding to highly concentrated attention scores, as entropy collapse. As a remedy, we propose sigmaReparam, a simple and efficient solution where we reparametrize all linear layers with spectral normalization and an additional learned scalar. We demonstrate that the proposed reparameterization successfully prevents entropy collapse in the attention layers, promoting more stable training. Additionally, we prove a tight lower bound of the attention entropy, which decreases exponentially fast with the spectral norm of the attention logits, providing additional motivation for our approach. We conduct experiments with sigmaReparam on image classification, image self-supervised learning, machine translation, automatic speech recognition, and language modeling tasks, across Transformer architectures. We show that sigmaReparam provides stability and robustness with respect to the choice of hyperparameters, going so far as enabling training (a) a Vision Transformer to competitive performance without warmup, weight decay, layer normalization or adaptive optimizers; (b) deep architectures in machine translation and (c) speech recognition to competitive performance without warmup and adaptive optimizers.

  • 8 authors
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Mar 10, 2023