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Nov 12

Evaluating language models as risk scores

Current question-answering benchmarks predominantly focus on accuracy in realizable prediction tasks. Conditioned on a question and answer-key, does the most likely token match the ground truth? Such benchmarks necessarily fail to evaluate LLMs' ability to quantify ground-truth outcome uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the use of LLMs as risk scores for unrealizable prediction tasks. We introduce folktexts, a software package to systematically generate risk scores using LLMs, and evaluate them against US Census data products. A flexible API enables the use of different prompting schemes, local or web-hosted models, and diverse census columns that can be used to compose custom prediction tasks. We evaluate 17 recent LLMs across five proposed benchmark tasks. We find that zero-shot risk scores produced by multiple-choice question-answering have high predictive signal but are widely miscalibrated. Base models consistently overestimate outcome uncertainty, while instruction-tuned models underestimate uncertainty and produce over-confident risk scores. In fact, instruction-tuning polarizes answer distribution regardless of true underlying data uncertainty. This reveals a general inability of instruction-tuned LLMs to express data uncertainty using multiple-choice answers. A separate experiment using verbalized chat-style risk queries yields substantially improved calibration across instruction-tuned models. These differences in ability to quantify data uncertainty cannot be revealed in realizable settings, and highlight a blind-spot in the current evaluation ecosystem that folktexts covers.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 19, 2024

Grounded Decoding: Guiding Text Generation with Grounded Models for Robot Control

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) has demonstrated the ability to learn and leverage Internet-scale knowledge through pre-training with autoregressive models. Unfortunately, applying such models to settings with embodied agents, such as robots, is challenging due to their lack of experience with the physical world, inability to parse non-language observations, and ignorance of rewards or safety constraints that robots may require. On the other hand, language-conditioned robotic policies that learn from interaction data can provide the necessary grounding that allows the agent to be correctly situated in the real world, but such policies are limited by the lack of high-level semantic understanding due to the limited breadth of the interaction data available for training them. Thus, if we want to make use of the semantic knowledge in a language model while still situating it in an embodied setting, we must construct an action sequence that is both likely according to the language model and also realizable according to grounded models of the environment. We frame this as a problem similar to probabilistic filtering: decode a sequence that both has high probability under the language model and high probability under a set of grounded model objectives. We demonstrate this guided decoding strategy is able to solve complex, long-horizon embodiment tasks in a robotic setting by leveraging the knowledge of both models. The project's website can be found at grounded-decoding.github.io.

  • 11 authors
·
Mar 1, 2023

We Query, Therefore We Compute: On Oracle Computation beyond the Machine, with an Application to Agents

Agentic systems use large language models (LLMs) to carry out concrete tasks. Prior work often borrows abstractions such as scheduling, caching or isolation piecemeal from operating systems, so the mechanisms it builds share little common ground, and the shared view of the two forms of agentic system, Workflows and Agents, is limited. We construct an abstract machine that provides both. We treat the LLM as an Oracle and extend a two-stack pushdown automaton with one instruction, which hands the Oracle a whole stack as its query and appends the answer to that same stack. The machine thus performs two computations, the Oracle's and a Turing-complete one that we call the Priestess. A stack that the program only appends to grows autoregressively, as an agent's context does. Two symmetry breakings, S in storage and T in transitions, make a Priestess program the operating system of the programs the Oracle runs, and produce the Agent and the Workflow as the two placements of a task's program. For internally autoregressive Oracles, the two computations synchronize at the end of every answer under certain conditions, and through that synchronization we model caching and analyse scheduling. No guarantee that holds for every Oracle can fix which content crosses between the two computations, but such a guarantee does fix the boundary itself. The construction V fits the machine to a von Neumann computer. To show that it is realizable, we propose ArchNights, an extended RISC-V ISA and a Linux-style operating system implementing the machine by design. ArchNights-SE runs on gem5 as a computer system, becomes an agentic system when it runs an LLM as the Oracle, and will be open source. Agentic systems can then be designed as computer systems are. With a foundation built and a unified view, future work can share invariants and bounds, each with its conditions.

OOM-RL II: Reality Is an Oracle, Not a Debugger Provenance-Constrained Diagnosis in Continually Evolving Agent-Engineered Systems

Reality may establish that an outcome occurred without identifying which evolving procedure produced it or why. This distinction matters in production ML systems whose code, configuration, and artifacts change while external feedback accumulates. We examine it in a human-directed, agent-engineered quantitative trading system, using oracle to mean an external source of realized outcomes rather than a complete correctness specification. Across one year, the account gained and outperformed a broad market index, while annual alpha was not statistically distinguishable from zero under the main retrospective specification. Retrospectively selected subperiods include adverse relative performance and conditional candidate-level weakness under declared approximate references. Engineering records document changes during the episode, and complete recommendation-to-runtime binding is unavailable. The archive does not establish a common frozen instance or a unique cause. The case motivates an outcome--diagnosis gap: outcome evidence, evaluated-object identity, and causal explanation support distinct claims. We distinguish frozen instances, pre-specified adaptive procedures, and ad-hoc development; organize archive-relative claim identifiability and an evidence hierarchy; and propose a prospective production-binding protocol. An illustrative compatible-history example shows how factual binding can resolve a recommendation's referent without supplying its counterfactual effect. The protocol is proposed rather than prospectively validated. External feedback constrains outcome claims, while provenance and additional identification structure determine the resolution of diagnosis.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 6

OR-Space: A Full-Lifecycle Workspace Benchmark for Industrial Optimization Agents

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly used to assist with operations research (OR) modeling, yet existing OR-oriented benchmarks often reduce evaluation to one-shot translation from a self-contained problem statement into a mathematical formulation or solver program. Such settings abstract away two characteristics of real industrial OR workflows: persistent multi-artifact workspaces and multi-stage task lifecycles. We introduce OR-Space, a full-lifecycle workspace benchmark for evaluating industrial optimization agents across model construction, model revision, and grounded explanation. Each instance is an executable workspace containing business documents, structured data, optional code artifacts, solver outputs, and task-specific evaluators distributed across interdependent files. OR-Space defines three task modes: Build, where agents construct solver-ready optimization models from heterogeneous artifacts; Revise, where agents modify existing models under changing requirements or solver feedback while preserving valid prior logic; and Explain, where agents answer grounded questions about solutions, constraints, and business implications using evidence spread across workspace artifacts. By combining persistent workspaces with lifecycle-oriented tasks, OR-Space evaluates whether agents can perform reliable optimization work beyond end-to-end text generation. We describe the benchmark design, evaluation protocol, and quality-control pipeline, and position OR-Space as a benchmark for studying the reliability, failure modes, and practical readiness of LLM agents in industrial OR workflows.

Verified Detection and Prevention of Concurrency Anomalies in Multi-Agent Large Language Model Systems

Multi-agent LLM systems share state through memory stores, vector indices, and tool registries. We model such sharing as long-running read-generate-write operations under deterministic-generation semantics -- the regime durable-execution engines enforce by deterministic replay -- and formalize four concurrency anomalies in TLA+: stale-generation, phantom-tool, causal-cascade, and tool-effect reordering, structural analogues of classical isolation anomalies, each with a TLC counter-example. The exclusion lattice over these anomalies is trivial; the contribution is the mechanically verified realizability and strict separation of one maximal chain within it, L_0 subsetneq cdots subsetneq L_4, to our knowledge the first machine-checked consistency hierarchy for such runtimes. A development of 274 Verus obligations (zero assume, zero admit; trust base: two structural axioms and a mutex correspondence) proves the detectors sound and complete against the specifications and each runtime its avoidance set. Three deployed Rust runtimes realize L0-L1 (pessimistic locking, serializable snapshot isolation, default-SI), each verified against stale-generation and refined to its state machine; L2-L4 are exec-mode-verified with dependency-free prevention twins (A3, A6, A2: 0/1000 versus 1000/1000), and L2 is run live across three model families (A3 prevented in all 120 retracted sessions). We reproduce a silent lost update in ByteDance's deer-flow, formalizing its fix as a verified L_0 to L_1 refinement, and exhibit tool-effect reordering in LangGraph's ToolNode on unmodified output, removed by an L3 commit-order sequencer. The verified detector, refinements, and realizability artifacts are the contribution; the phenomena and lattice are classical.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 14 1

Pitwall: Faithful Natural-Language Race-Strategy Briefings from a Calibrated Real-Time Monte Carlo Engine

Live sports commentary is grounded generation under a deadline: statements concern real, named athletes, the grounding state changes every few seconds, and no reference text exists at generation time. We present Pitwall, a production system that generates natural-language Formula 1 strategy briefings in English, Spanish, and Portuguese, treating faithfulness as an architectural property rather than an aspiration: every published sentence is decomposed into typed factual claims (positions, gaps, tyres, pace, overtakes, race control) and each claim is verified against the probabilistic race state that prompted it. The same verifier gates the fine-tuning data: of 3,045 model-written targets, only the 81.9% whose every claim is state-supported are retained, the rest falling back to a provably faithful template, so the generator never sees an ungrounded target. Verification is meaningful because of the grounding substrate: a vectorized Monte Carlo engine (N=2,000 per-lap race continuations) calibrated on 126 races (2018-2024) and validated on fully held-out 2025-2026 seasons (winner-in-top-3 90.3% over 155 backtests; held-out Brier 0.0745). A recurring finding spans both halves of the system: virtues trade off and must be gated separately. In simulation, calibration-optimal is not decision-optimal; in generation, fine-tuning on richer targets buys vividness that collapses into hallucination when the grounding state is sparse -- a failure a four-base replication traces to base-model instruction adherence, not scale, and that sparse-context auditing removes from the production model. End-to-end operation -- live timing to verified trilingual briefings -- was confirmed at two consecutive live Grands Prix (Austria and Britain, 2026); at Silverstone a timestamped probability trace, committed to disk before the outcome was known, locked onto the eventual winner ten laps before the flag.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 6

Calibration and Correctness of Language Models for Code

Machine learning models are widely used, but can also often be wrong. Users would benefit from a reliable indication of whether a given output from a given model should be trusted, so a rational decision can be made whether to use the output or not. For example, outputs can be associated with a confidence measure; if this confidence measure is strongly associated with likelihood of correctness, then the model is said to be well-calibrated. A well-calibrated confidence measure can serve as a basis for rational, graduated decision-making on how much review and care is needed when using generated code. Calibration has so far been studied in mostly non-generative (e.g. classification) settings, especially in software engineering. However, generated code can quite often be wrong: Given generated code, developers must decide whether to use directly, use after varying intensity of careful review, or discard model-generated code. Thus, calibration is vital in generative settings. We make several contributions. We develop a framework for evaluating the calibration of code-generating models. We consider several tasks, correctness criteria, datasets, and approaches, and find that, by and large, generative code models we test are not well-calibrated out of the box. We then show how calibration can be improved using standard methods, such as Platt scaling. Since Platt scaling relies on the prior availability of correctness data, we evaluate the applicability and generalizability of Platt scaling in software engineering, discuss settings where it has good potential for practical use, and settings where it does not. Our contributions will lead to better-calibrated decision-making in the current use of code generated by language models, and offers a framework for future research to further improve calibration methods for generative models in software engineering.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 3, 2024

Towards Foundation Time Series Model: To Synthesize Or Not To Synthesize?

The industry is rich in cases when we are required to make forecasting for large amounts of time series at once. However, we might be in a situation where we can not afford to train a separate model for each of them. Such issue in time series modeling remains without due attention. The remedy for this setting is the establishment of a foundation model. Such a model is expected to work in zero-shot and few-shot regimes. However, what should we take as a training dataset for such kind of model? Witnessing the benefits from the enrichment of NLP datasets with artificially-generated data, we might want to adopt their experience for time series. In contrast to natural language, the process of generation of synthetic time series data is even more favorable because it provides full control of series patterns, time horizons, and number of samples. In this work, we consider the essential question if it is advantageous to train a foundation model on synthetic data or it is better to utilize only a limited number of real-life examples. Our experiments are conducted only for regular time series and speak in favor of leveraging solely the real time series. Moreover, the choice of the proper source dataset strongly influences the performance during inference. When provided access even to a limited quantity of short time series data, employing it within a supervised framework yields more favorable results than training on a larger volume of synthetic data. The code for our experiments is publicly available on Github https://github.com/sb-ai-lab/synthesize_or_not.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 4, 2024

Diverse Dictionary Learning

Given only observational data X = g(Z), where both the latent variables Z and the generating process g are unknown, recovering Z is ill-posed without additional assumptions. Existing methods often assume linearity or rely on auxiliary supervision and functional constraints. However, such assumptions are rarely verifiable in practice, and most theoretical guarantees break down under even mild violations, leaving uncertainty about how to reliably understand the hidden world. To make identifiability actionable in the real-world scenarios, we take a complementary view: in the general settings where full identifiability is unattainable, what can still be recovered with guarantees, and what biases could be universally adopted? We introduce the problem of diverse dictionary learning to formalize this view. Specifically, we show that intersections, complements, and symmetric differences of latent variables linked to arbitrary observations, along with the latent-to-observed dependency structure, are still identifiable up to appropriate indeterminacies even without strong assumptions. These set-theoretic results can be composed using set algebra to construct structured and essential views of the hidden world, such as genus-differentia definitions. When sufficient structural diversity is present, they further imply full identifiability of all latent variables. Notably, all identifiability benefits follow from a simple inductive bias during estimation that can be readily integrated into most models. We validate the theory and demonstrate the benefits of the bias on both synthetic and real-world data.

Orchestrated Reality: From Role-Play to Living, Playable Game Worlds -- LLM-Driven World Simulation as a Parameterized-Action POMDP

Many games rely on storytelling combined with systems that track levelling, NPC behaviour, and consequence simulation; bridging tightly-authored narrative with deeply-simulated worlds -- most acute in sandbox and open-world settings -- has been prohibitively expensive. LLM-driven worlds open a new path: a single harness can coordinate numerical state, narrative voice, storytelling pacing, and rule logic together. Realising this requires the LLM system to sustain a persistent world (who is where, what has just happened, what is currently true), which today's deployed systems do not: the narrative voice asserts state in free prose without any validated representation, so a fully autonomous game engine remains infeasible. We treat this as an architectural choice, not a limitation of language models, and report work in progress on a framework -- orchestrated reality -- that makes the world a canonical object owned by a singleton orchestration agent analogous to the tabletop-RPG Game Master (GM). We formalise an LLM-driven game world for a human player as a Parameterized-Action POMDP: state is a tree of canonical JSON entities, actions decompose as a=(k, x_k) (a discrete intent kind plus structured JSON parameters), the agent observes only a narrative projection o=O(s) of state, and the transition kernel F is an LLM-driven Plan-Diff-Validate-Apply (PDVA) pipeline that commits schema-validated, content-hashed JSON deltas. We give the formal model, a JSON-state example, a worked single-turn example, and a catalogue of 15 illustrative incidents drawn from a real deployment showing the framework in action. Empirical validation through a planned human player study -- together with multi-NPC concurrent agency and deployment as an RL environment -- is situated as future work.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 13

TableVerse: A Large-scale Tabletop Dataset with Real-world Grounded Layouts for Generalizable Manipulation

The development of generalizable robotic manipulation policies is inherently bounded by the availability of large-scale, high-fidelity scene data. While recent automated synthesis methods attempt to bridge this gap via text-to-layout hallucination or simplified procedural generation, they frequently suffer from physical implausibility and fail to capture the complex, dense clutter of actual human environments. In this paper, we introduce TableVerse, a fully automated Real2Sim pipeline that shifts the paradigm from imaginative layout generation to deterministic reconstruction from unstructured, in-the-wild image data. Our framework seamlessly processes unscripted internet media into high-fidelity, simulation-ready tabletop environments with accurate metric scales, authentic topologies, and verified mechanical stability. Furthermore, an automated task-conditioned trajectory generation framework is integrated to synthesize high-quality, collision-free pick-and-place demonstrations. Leveraging this complete pipeline, we construct the TableVerse-100K Dataset, a large-scale corpus comprising 100,000 unique, physically consistent environments paired with interactive manipulation trajectories. By capturing diverse asset compositions, realistic spatial distributions, and high-quality demonstrations, TableVerse-100K establishes a highly scalable and high-fidelity data foundation, providing significant value to facilitate future research in generalizable robotic manipulation tasks.

ByteDance ByteDance
·
Jul 22 1

Declarative Outcome-Conformant Synthesis: Exact, Closed-Form Specification Satisfaction and a Conformance Benchmark

We study a capability the dominant paradigm in synthetic tabular data does not provide: exact satisfaction of a declared analytical outcome with no source data. Imitation methods (copulas, GANs, diffusion) learn a real distribution and sample from it, and are judged on fidelity to real data. A large, practical class of needs is different: generating data with no source data ("cold start") that reproduces a declared outcome (a revenue curve, a churn rate, a group share) across a relational schema. Off-the-shelf imitation tools offer no interface for such targets, and no sampler can hit an exact aggregate, because sampling has variance. On a real public dataset, off-the-shelf learned synthesizers trained on that very data miss the declared monthly aggregate by 74 to 86 percent; a per-period steelman cuts the miss to about 19 percent and still cannot reach 0; a closed-form generator reaches exactly 0. We name this task outcome-conformant synthesis, argue its evaluation axis is conformance rather than fidelity, and show the two axes are orthogonal. We contribute: (1) a formal account showing a widely-used family of exact-aggregate generators is exactly conditional-sum sampling of a Gamma population (via Lukacs' characterization), with closed-form exactness, a closed-form marginal CV, and scale-invariance; a controlled experiment maps the boundary, enforcing the exact aggregate costs at most 0.006 in 1-Wasserstein distance to an arbitrary external marginal, the rest being shape-family mismatch; (2) SpecBench, to our knowledge the first benchmark to measure conformance to analytical outcomes for cold-start relational synthesis; and (3) a closed-form, deterministic reference system. Exact aggregation alone is trivial; the contribution is conformance jointly with closed-form marginals, integrity, determinism, and zero source data. We concede fidelity to imitation where real data exists.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 6

Exploring the Potential of AI-Generated Synthetic Datasets: A Case Study on Telematics Data with ChatGPT

This research delves into the construction and utilization of synthetic datasets, specifically within the telematics sphere, leveraging OpenAI's powerful language model, ChatGPT. Synthetic datasets present an effective solution to challenges pertaining to data privacy, scarcity, and control over variables - characteristics that make them particularly valuable for research pursuits. The utility of these datasets, however, largely depends on their quality, measured through the lenses of diversity, relevance, and coherence. To illustrate this data creation process, a hands-on case study is conducted, focusing on the generation of a synthetic telematics dataset. The experiment involved an iterative guidance of ChatGPT, progressively refining prompts and culminating in the creation of a comprehensive dataset for a hypothetical urban planning scenario in Columbus, Ohio. Upon generation, the synthetic dataset was subjected to an evaluation, focusing on the previously identified quality parameters and employing descriptive statistics and visualization techniques for a thorough analysis. Despite synthetic datasets not serving as perfect replacements for actual world data, their potential in specific use-cases, when executed with precision, is significant. This research underscores the potential of AI models like ChatGPT in enhancing data availability for complex sectors like telematics, thus paving the way for a myriad of new research opportunities.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 23, 2023

LatticeWorld: A Multimodal Large Language Model-Empowered Framework for Interactive Complex World Generation

Recent research has been increasingly focusing on developing 3D world models that simulate complex real-world scenarios. World models have found broad applications across various domains, including embodied AI, autonomous driving, entertainment, etc. A more realistic simulation with accurate physics will effectively narrow the sim-to-real gap and allow us to gather rich information about the real world conveniently. While traditional manual modeling has enabled the creation of virtual 3D scenes, modern approaches have leveraged advanced machine learning algorithms for 3D world generation, with most recent advances focusing on generative methods that can create virtual worlds based on user instructions. This work explores such a research direction by proposing LatticeWorld, a simple yet effective 3D world generation framework that streamlines the industrial production pipeline of 3D environments. LatticeWorld leverages lightweight LLMs (LLaMA-2-7B) alongside the industry-grade rendering engine (e.g., Unreal Engine 5) to generate a dynamic environment. Our proposed framework accepts textual descriptions and visual instructions as multimodal inputs and creates large-scale 3D interactive worlds with dynamic agents, featuring competitive multi-agent interaction, high-fidelity physics simulation, and real-time rendering. We conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate LatticeWorld, showing that it achieves superior accuracy in scene layout generation and visual fidelity. Moreover, LatticeWorld achieves over a 90times increase in industrial production efficiency while maintaining high creative quality compared with traditional manual production methods. Our demo video is available at https://youtu.be/8VWZXpERR18

  • 10 authors
·
Sep 5, 2025 3

RealGen: Retrieval Augmented Generation for Controllable Traffic Scenarios

Simulation plays a crucial role in the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) due to the potential risks associated with real-world testing. Although significant progress has been made in the visual aspects of simulators, generating complex behavior among agents remains a formidable challenge. It is not only imperative to ensure realism in the scenarios generated but also essential to incorporate preferences and conditions to facilitate controllable generation for AV training and evaluation. Traditional methods, mainly relying on memorizing the distribution of training datasets, often fall short in generating unseen scenarios. Inspired by the success of retrieval augmented generation in large language models, we present RealGen, a novel retrieval-based in-context learning framework for traffic scenario generation. RealGen synthesizes new scenarios by combining behaviors from multiple retrieved examples in a gradient-free way, which may originate from templates or tagged scenarios. This in-context learning framework endows versatile generative capabilities, including the ability to edit scenarios, compose various behaviors, and produce critical scenarios. Evaluations show that RealGen offers considerable flexibility and controllability, marking a new direction in the field of controllable traffic scenario generation. Check our project website for more information: https://realgen.github.io.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 19, 2023

WorldKernel: A World Model is the Coupling Kernel of Admissible Possible Worlds

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 8

The Tool Decathlon: Benchmarking Language Agents for Diverse, Realistic, and Long-Horizon Task Execution

Real-world language agents must handle complex, multi-step workflows across diverse Apps. For instance, an agent may manage emails by coordinating with calendars and file systems, or monitor a production database to detect anomalies and generate reports following an operating manual. However, existing language agent benchmarks often focus on narrow domains or simplified tasks that lack the diversity, realism, and long-horizon complexity required to evaluate agents' real-world performance. To address this gap, we introduce the Tool Decathlon (dubbed as Toolathlon), a benchmark for language agents offering diverse Apps and tools, realistic environment setup, and reliable execution-based evaluation. Toolathlon spans 32 software applications and 604 tools, ranging from everyday platforms such as Google Calendar and Notion to professional ones like WooCommerce, Kubernetes, and BigQuery. Most of the tools are based on a high-quality set of Model Context Protocol (MCP) servers that we may have revised or implemented ourselves. Unlike prior works, which primarily ensure functional realism but offer limited environment state diversity, we provide realistic initial environment states from real software, such as Canvas courses with dozens of students or real financial spreadsheets. This benchmark includes 108 manually sourced or crafted tasks in total, requiring interacting with multiple Apps over around 20 turns on average to complete. Each task is strictly verifiable through dedicated evaluation scripts. Comprehensive evaluation of SOTA models highlights their significant shortcomings: the best-performing model, Claude-4.5-Sonnet, achieves only a 38.6% success rate with 20.2 tool calling turns on average, while the top open-weights model DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp reaches 20.1%. We expect Toolathlon to drive the development of more capable language agents for real-world, long-horizon task execution.

  • 21 authors
·
Oct 29, 2025 1

OpenUniverse2024: A shared, simulated view of the sky for the next generation of cosmological surveys

The OpenUniverse2024 simulation suite is a cross-collaboration effort to produce matched simulated imaging for multiple surveys as they would observe a common simulated sky. Both the simulated data and associated tools used to produce it are intended to uniquely enable a wide range of studies to maximize the science potential of the next generation of cosmological surveys. We have produced simulated imaging for approximately 70 deg^2 of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Wide-Fast-Deep survey and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope High-Latitude Wide-Area Survey, as well as overlapping versions of the ELAIS-S1 Deep-Drilling Field for LSST and the High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey for Roman. OpenUniverse2024 includes i) an early version of the updated extragalactic model called Diffsky, which substantially improves the realism of optical and infrared photometry of objects, compared to previous versions of these models; ii) updated transient models that extend through the wavelength range probed by Roman and Rubin; and iii) improved survey, telescope, and instrument realism based on up-to-date survey plans and known properties of the instruments. It is built on a new and updated suite of simulation tools that improves the ease of consistently simulating multiple observatories viewing the same sky. The approximately 400 TB of synthetic survey imaging and simulated universe catalogs are publicly available, and we preview some scientific uses of the simulations.

  • 61 authors
·
Mar 4, 2025

WorldFoundry: Towards Unified Infrastructure for World Intelligence

Visual generative models increasingly blur the line between synthesizing observations and simulating environments. Yet visual plausibility alone does not constitute successful world modeling: compelling outputs may lack persistent state, physical dynamics, or causally consistent responses to interactions. We define a generative world model as a predictive dynamical system that maintains a persistent, history-conditioned representation of an environment, updates that representation in response to actions or interventions, and generates temporally coherent trajectories that reflect outcomes under observed and counterfactual interventions. From this definition, we derive an intelligence-oriented framework spanning perceptual grounding, persistent state modeling, controllable transformation, dynamics-aware prediction, and closed-loop interaction. We present WorldFoundry, open-source infrastructure for reproducible inference and evaluation across video, 3D and 4D, embodied action, and interactive world systems. WorldFoundry unifies model and benchmark discovery, runtime and asset preparation, execution orchestration, artifact management, and interactive visualization, while modality-specific adapters preserve native inputs, execution semantics, output representations, and evaluation protocols. Explicit manifests, durable artifact contracts, and evidence-aware scorecards separate execution readiness from evaluative claims, making each claim traceable to its supporting artifacts. The catalog contains 270 model entries, 74 benchmarks, and 62 registered metric entries, with readiness and execution evidence recorded separately. WorldFoundry enables reproducible comparison of persistent, controllable dynamics across heterogeneous systems, advancing the field from perceptual synthesis toward measurable world intelligence.

OpenEnvisionLab OpenEnvision
·
Nov 7 2

WorldGrow: Generating Infinite 3D World

We tackle the challenge of generating the infinitely extendable 3D world -- large, continuous environments with coherent geometry and realistic appearance. Existing methods face key challenges: 2D-lifting approaches suffer from geometric and appearance inconsistencies across views, 3D implicit representations are hard to scale up, and current 3D foundation models are mostly object-centric, limiting their applicability to scene-level generation. Our key insight is leveraging strong generation priors from pre-trained 3D models for structured scene block generation. To this end, we propose WorldGrow, a hierarchical framework for unbounded 3D scene synthesis. Our method features three core components: (1) a data curation pipeline that extracts high-quality scene blocks for training, making the 3D structured latent representations suitable for scene generation; (2) a 3D block inpainting mechanism that enables context-aware scene extension; and (3) a coarse-to-fine generation strategy that ensures both global layout plausibility and local geometric/textural fidelity. Evaluated on the large-scale 3D-FRONT dataset, WorldGrow achieves SOTA performance in geometry reconstruction, while uniquely supporting infinite scene generation with photorealistic and structurally consistent outputs. These results highlight its capability for constructing large-scale virtual environments and potential for building future world models.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 24, 2025 3

Learning Interactive Real-World Simulators

Generative models trained on internet data have revolutionized how text, image, and video content can be created. Perhaps the next milestone for generative models is to simulate realistic experience in response to actions taken by humans, robots, and other interactive agents. Applications of a real-world simulator range from controllable content creation in games and movies, to training embodied agents purely in simulation that can be directly deployed in the real world. We explore the possibility of learning a universal simulator (UniSim) of real-world interaction through generative modeling. We first make the important observation that natural datasets available for learning a real-world simulator are often rich along different axes (e.g., abundant objects in image data, densely sampled actions in robotics data, and diverse movements in navigation data). With careful orchestration of diverse datasets, each providing a different aspect of the overall experience, UniSim can emulate how humans and agents interact with the world by simulating the visual outcome of both high-level instructions such as "open the drawer" and low-level controls such as "move by x, y" from otherwise static scenes and objects. There are numerous use cases for such a real-world simulator. As an example, we use UniSim to train both high-level vision-language planners and low-level reinforcement learning policies, each of which exhibit zero-shot real-world transfer after training purely in a learned real-world simulator. We also show that other types of intelligence such as video captioning models can benefit from training with simulated experience in UniSim, opening up even wider applications. Video demos can be found at https://universal-simulator.github.io.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 9, 2023

Latent Compass: Creation by Navigation

In Marius von Senden's Space and Sight, a newly sighted blind patient describes the experience of a corner as lemon-like, because corners "prick" sight like lemons prick the tongue. Prickliness, here, is a dimension in the feature space of sensory experience, an effect of the perceived on the perceiver that arises where the two interact. In the account of the newly sighted, an effect familiar from one interaction translates to a novel context. Perception serves as the vehicle for generalization, in that an effect shared across different experiences produces a concrete abstraction grounded in those experiences. Cezanne and the post-impressionists, fluent in the language of experience translation, realized that the way to paint a concrete form that best reflected reality was to paint not what they saw, but what it was like to see. We envision a future of creation using AI where what it is like to see is replicable, transferrable, manipulable - part of the artist's palette that is both grounded in a particular context, and generalizable beyond it. An active line of research maps human-interpretable features onto directions in GAN latent space. Supervised and self-supervised approaches that search for anticipated directions or use off-the-shelf classifiers to drive image manipulation in embedding space are limited in the variety of features they can uncover. Unsupervised approaches that discover useful new directions show that the space of perceptually meaningful directions is nowhere close to being fully mapped. As this space is broad and full of creative potential, we want tools for direction discovery that capture the richness and generalizability of human perception. Our approach puts creators in the discovery loop during real-time tool use, in order to identify directions that are perceptually meaningful to them, and generate interpretable image translations along those directions.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 19, 2020

Gym-Anything: Turn any Software into an Agent Environment

Computer-use agents hold the promise of assisting in a wide range of digital economic activities. However, current research has largely focused on short-horizon tasks over a limited set of software with limited economic value, such as basic e-commerce and OS-configuration tasks. A key reason is that creating environments for complex software requires significant time and human effort, and therefore does not scale. To address this, we introduce Gym-Anything, a framework for converting any software into an interactive computer-use environment. We frame environment creation itself as a multi-agent task: a coding agent writes setup scripts, downloads real-world data, and configures the software, while producing evidence of correct setup. An independent audit agent then verifies evidence for the environment setup against a quality checklist. Using a taxonomy of economically valuable occupations grounded in U.S. GDP data, we apply this pipeline to 200 software applications with broad occupational coverage. The result is CUA-World, a collection of over 10K long-horizon tasks spanning domains from medical science and astronomy to engineering and enterprise systems, each configured with realistic data along with train and test splits. CUA-World also includes CUA-World-Long, a challenging long-horizon benchmark with tasks often requiring over 500 steps, far exceeding existing benchmarks. Distilling successful trajectories from the training split into a 2B vision-language model outperforms models 2times its size. We also apply the same auditing principle at test time: a separate VLM reviews completed trajectories and provides feedback on what remains, improving Gemini-3-Flash on CUA-World-Long from 11.5% to 14.0%. We release all code, infrastructure, and benchmark data to facilitate future research in realistic computer-use agents.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 6

Causal Representation Learning in Temporal Data via Single-Parent Decoding

Scientific research often seeks to understand the causal structure underlying high-level variables in a system. For example, climate scientists study how phenomena, such as El Niño, affect other climate processes at remote locations across the globe. However, scientists typically collect low-level measurements, such as geographically distributed temperature readings. From these, one needs to learn both a mapping to causally-relevant latent variables, such as a high-level representation of the El Niño phenomenon and other processes, as well as the causal model over them. The challenge is that this task, called causal representation learning, is highly underdetermined from observational data alone, requiring other constraints during learning to resolve the indeterminacies. In this work, we consider a temporal model with a sparsity assumption, namely single-parent decoding: each observed low-level variable is only affected by a single latent variable. Such an assumption is reasonable in many scientific applications that require finding groups of low-level variables, such as extracting regions from geographically gridded measurement data in climate research or capturing brain regions from neural activity data. We demonstrate the identifiability of the resulting model and propose a differentiable method, Causal Discovery with Single-parent Decoding (CDSD), that simultaneously learns the underlying latents and a causal graph over them. We assess the validity of our theoretical results using simulated data and showcase the practical validity of our method in an application to real-world data from the climate science field.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 8, 2024

How to Build Marcus's Algebraic Mind: From Minsky's Emotion-Machine Viewpoint

This paper reports a step that had already been taken. Marcus's three components of an adequate cognitive architecture -- variables, recursive structure, individuals vs kinds -- left the neural substrate open; a companion paper answers it with VaCoAl, built on XOR-and-shift over GF(2). Those pillars are horizontal: how a mind represents the world. Minsky's Emotion Machine supplies the orthogonal, vertical dimension -- a mind reasoning about its own reasoning. The vertical step needed no new machinery. A representation exactly recoverable becomes introspection when what is recovered is the reasoner's own deliberative trace: Minsky's Reflective layer. Pillar 2 says nothing about whose structure is recovered; point the same unbind inward and Reflection follows. Only the argument changes. Capability: exact reversible binding at O(N), kept exact within a Frontier Size, yields a trace readable constituent by constituent: a self-report faithful by construction, not verbalization. Only exact-algebraic traces, not probabilistic ones, make the reflexive read faithful. Necessity: audit and valuation are one circuit at opposite settings of one parameter. Repair every collision and the trace is exactly auditable but no path outranks another; tolerate them and the CR2 decay that credits the direct route makes the read approximate. Position: we claim neither to have built the Reflective layer nor to surpass large language models; it supplies the auditable trace probabilistic deliberation cannot leave. The same substrate gives panalogy (content-addressable retrieval scored by CR) and credit assignment as counterfactual unbind-rebind, meeting Pearl's causal axis. Not claimed: Reflection's sufficient conditions (meta-control loop, context-tagging) are future work; Reflection is introspection, not evaluation; its reachability is argued, not shown; speed and power unbenchmarked.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 8

Counterfactual Gate-Support Decomposition: Separating Selection from Redistribution in Training-Data Filtering

A training-data quality gate changes both which examples survive within regions of the input space and how training mass is distributed across those regions, so a gate-versus-random comparison does not isolate these mechanisms. We introduce Counterfactual Gate-Support Decomposition (CGSD), a four-arm, budget-matched design that crosses gate eligibility with support distribution and decomposes the observed gate effect into within-support selection, between-support redistribution, and their interaction. The practical constraint is finite-pool realizability: we characterize mass and token-assembly conditions under which the required arms can be constructed, together with a support-extinction case in which the ordinary design is undefined. On Korean-English and Korean-Japanese retrieval, the mean within-support selection component is the only one that exceeds its calibrated null band (+29.7 and +5.6 holdout items; 30/30 positive replicates), decisively in Korean-English and marginally in Korean-Japanese; redistribution and interaction remain unresolved at the available power. The same pattern holds for a second, unrelated gate family -- a model-confidence threshold rather than a deterministic verifier -- judged against its own null (+27.3 items, 9/9 positive), so the result is not a property of one gate's mechanism. On a mathematics gate, zero-eligibility supports leave the ordinary design undefined at every budget, while the extended design is constructible only inside narrow budget bands that an exhaustive scan locates and that the natural operating point misses -- the assembly condition separating a property of the pool from a limitation of the packer. CGSD therefore returns a decomposition, a constructible-but-underpowered design, or an explicit non-constructibility result, and says which; it prevents support redistribution from being silently interpreted as sample-level gate quality.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 13

Anything in Any Scene: Photorealistic Video Object Insertion

Realistic video simulation has shown significant potential across diverse applications, from virtual reality to film production. This is particularly true for scenarios where capturing videos in real-world settings is either impractical or expensive. Existing approaches in video simulation often fail to accurately model the lighting environment, represent the object geometry, or achieve high levels of photorealism. In this paper, we propose Anything in Any Scene, a novel and generic framework for realistic video simulation that seamlessly inserts any object into an existing dynamic video with a strong emphasis on physical realism. Our proposed general framework encompasses three key processes: 1) integrating a realistic object into a given scene video with proper placement to ensure geometric realism; 2) estimating the sky and environmental lighting distribution and simulating realistic shadows to enhance the light realism; 3) employing a style transfer network that refines the final video output to maximize photorealism. We experimentally demonstrate that Anything in Any Scene framework produces simulated videos of great geometric realism, lighting realism, and photorealism. By significantly mitigating the challenges associated with video data generation, our framework offers an efficient and cost-effective solution for acquiring high-quality videos. Furthermore, its applications extend well beyond video data augmentation, showing promising potential in virtual reality, video editing, and various other video-centric applications. Please check our project website https://anythinginanyscene.github.io for access to our project code and more high-resolution video results.

  • 14 authors
·
Jan 30, 2024 1

Automated Creation of Digital Cousins for Robust Policy Learning

Training robot policies in the real world can be unsafe, costly, and difficult to scale. Simulation serves as an inexpensive and potentially limitless source of training data, but suffers from the semantics and physics disparity between simulated and real-world environments. These discrepancies can be minimized by training in digital twins, which serve as virtual replicas of a real scene but are expensive to generate and cannot produce cross-domain generalization. To address these limitations, we propose the concept of digital cousins, a virtual asset or scene that, unlike a digital twin, does not explicitly model a real-world counterpart but still exhibits similar geometric and semantic affordances. As a result, digital cousins simultaneously reduce the cost of generating an analogous virtual environment while also facilitating better robustness during sim-to-real domain transfer by providing a distribution of similar training scenes. Leveraging digital cousins, we introduce a novel method for their automated creation, and propose a fully automated real-to-sim-to-real pipeline for generating fully interactive scenes and training robot policies that can be deployed zero-shot in the original scene. We find that digital cousin scenes that preserve geometric and semantic affordances can be produced automatically, and can be used to train policies that outperform policies trained on digital twins, achieving 90% vs. 25% success rates under zero-shot sim-to-real transfer. Additional details are available at https://digital-cousins.github.io/.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 9, 2024

Counterfactual Predictions in Scientific Emulators Without Controlled Experiments

Many scientific questions require reasoning about what was never observed: What if the conditions, interventions, or history had been different? Models can predict accurately on observed data yet fail on such what-if queries when correlated inputs are varied independently. A common remedy is to add controlled simulation data in which these factors are explicitly disentangled, but this requires access to a simulator, can be computationally expensive, and inherits the simulator's modeling assumptions. We introduce ReRoute, a framework for targeted scientific what-if prediction that combines factual data with partial mechanistic knowledge, without requiring controlled intervention data for adaptation. ReRoute fixes the queried input of a pretrained backbone to a reference value, reintroduces its variation through a known mechanistic pathway, and fine-tunes on the original factual data, while leaving downstream effects to the learned dynamics. We provide a causal identification result for this construction under explicit structural assumptions, with the core argument machine-checked in Lean. After showing that ReRoute achieves highly accurate counterfactual predictions in a controlled advection-diffusion system where exact responses are available, we turn to state-of-the-art climate emulation. On held-out coupled-climate interventions, ReRoute reduces aggregate climate error by 18.2-31.8% under severe CO_2 distribution shifts while preserving skill under standard conditions, at a small fraction of the cost of retraining on additional controlled simulations, without even accounting for the substantial expense of generating such data. Finally, on an emulator trained from historical ERA5 reanalysis, where no counterfactual reference exists, ReRoute preserves substantially more of the surface warming implied by the observed boundary conditions under a fixed-CO_2 counterfactual.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 29

MetaEarth3D: Unlocking World-scale 3D Generation with Spatially Scalable Generative Modeling

Recent generative AI models have achieved remarkable breakthroughs in language and visual understanding. However, although these models can generate realistic visual content, their spatial scale remains confined to bounded environments, preventing them from capturing how geographic environments evolve across thousands of kilometers or from modeling the spatial structure of the large-scale physical world. This limitation poses a critical challenge for ultra-wide-area spatial intelligence in Earth observation and simulation, revealing a deeper gap in generative AI: progress has relied primarily on scaling model parameters and training data, while overlooking spatial scale as a core dimension of intelligence. Here, motivated by this missing dimension, we investigate spatial scale as a new scaling axis in foundation models and present MetaEarth3D, the first generative foundation model capable of spatially consistent generation at the planetary scale. Taking optical Earth observation simulation as a testbed, MetaEarth3D enables the generation of multi-level, unbounded, and diverse 3D scenes spanning large-scale terrains, medium-scale cities, and fine-grained street blocks. Built upon 10 million globally distributed real-world training images, MetaEarth3D demonstrates both strong visual realism and geospatial statistical realism. Beyond generation, MetaEarth3D serves as a generative data engine for diverse virtual environments in ultra-wide spatial intelligence. We argue that this study may help empower next-generation spatial intelligence for Earth observation.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 18

Exploratory, Communicative, and Deployable: Vision-Driven Embodied Agents for Open-World Mobile Manipulation

Real-world deployment of embodied agents requires active exploration, visual grounding, and interactive intent disambiguation. However, existing frameworks often rely on privileged simulator states or assume complete instructions, bypassing realistic deployment challenges. To bridge this gap, we present REAL, an agentic framework for open-world mobile manipulation. REAL establishes sim-to-real-consistent environment APIs without oracle perception and integrates a simulated user to enable human-in-the-loop interaction. Within this environment, we design diverse task compositions to drive data collection, supervised fine-tuning, and online reinforcement learning, systematically optimizing agent performance. To comprehensively evaluate this approach, we introduce REAL-Bench, a benchmark spanning 241 tasks across active exploration, visual distraction, articulated manipulation, and interactive disambiguation. Experimental results demonstrate that our trained agent outperforms leading commercial closed-source VLMs on interactive tasks with a 56.9% success rate. Further empirical analysis reveals that our hierarchical training pipeline successfully aligns the model's tool-use capabilities while maintaining robust open-vocabulary reasoning under extended exploration horizons. Finally, we deploy and evaluate our framework on a physical dual-arm mobile robot, where it achieves a 78.3% end-to-end success rate over 60 real-world episodes. These physical trials demonstrate robust zero-shot transferability to unseen household scenarios, validating that our sim-to-real-consistent design successfully bridges the reality gap for long-horizon mobile manipulation. Code is available at https://github.com/InternRobotics/REAL.

  • 13 authors
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Jul 14

RealGen: Photorealistic Text-to-Image Generation via Detector-Guided Rewards

With the continuous advancement of image generation technology, advanced models such as GPT-Image-1 and Qwen-Image have achieved remarkable text-to-image consistency and world knowledge However, these models still fall short in photorealistic image generation. Even on simple T2I tasks, they tend to produce " fake" images with distinct AI artifacts, often characterized by "overly smooth skin" and "oily facial sheens". To recapture the original goal of "indistinguishable-from-reality" generation, we propose RealGen, a photorealistic text-to-image framework. RealGen integrates an LLM component for prompt optimization and a diffusion model for realistic image generation. Inspired by adversarial generation, RealGen introduces a "Detector Reward" mechanism, which quantifies artifacts and assesses realism using both semantic-level and feature-level synthetic image detectors. We leverage this reward signal with the GRPO algorithm to optimize the entire generation pipeline, significantly enhancing image realism and detail. Furthermore, we propose RealBench, an automated evaluation benchmark employing Detector-Scoring and Arena-Scoring. It enables human-free photorealism assessment, yielding results that are more accurate and aligned with real user experience. Experiments demonstrate that RealGen significantly outperforms general models like GPT-Image-1 and Qwen-Image, as well as specialized photorealistic models like FLUX-Krea, in terms of realism, detail, and aesthetics. The code is available at https://github.com/yejy53/RealGen.

  • 10 authors
·
Nov 29, 2025 2

A harmonised dataset for Earth system foundation models

Foundation models for Earth systems have so far been trained primarily on physical climate and weather data, with limited representation of the human systems that both drive and respond to environmental change. The lack of a unified global training resource that combines climate, land, ocean, cryosphere, infrastructure, hazards, and socioeconomic data on a common grid hinders progress toward truly multimodal Earth system foundation models. We present WorldTensor, a harmonised global dataset that aligns hundreds of environmental and socioeconomic variables to a standardised 0.25^circ spatial grid and annual temporal framework. WorldTensor integrates reanalysis products, remote sensing, emissions inventories, land use reconstructions, hydrological observations, infrastructure and hazard datasets, and socioeconomic indicators within a single representation designed for machine learning workflows. To build the dataset, we regridded inputs across heterogeneous native resolutions and projections, rasterised point and vector datasets into spatially meaningful gridded fields, and reconciled temporal coverages ranging from daily observations to sparse multiyear socioeconomic snapshots. All outputs are distributed as NetCDF files with standardised coordinates, variable metadata, and a common CF metadata convention. WorldTensor provides a reproducible resource for training and evaluating foundation models that learn coupled dynamics across environmental and human systems at planetary scale.

  • 2 authors
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Jul 2

Consistency-diversity-realism Pareto fronts of conditional image generative models

Building world models that accurately and comprehensively represent the real world is the utmost aspiration for conditional image generative models as it would enable their use as world simulators. For these models to be successful world models, they should not only excel at image quality and prompt-image consistency but also ensure high representation diversity. However, current research in generative models mostly focuses on creative applications that are predominantly concerned with human preferences of image quality and aesthetics. We note that generative models have inference time mechanisms - or knobs - that allow the control of generation consistency, quality, and diversity. In this paper, we use state-of-the-art text-to-image and image-and-text-to-image models and their knobs to draw consistency-diversity-realism Pareto fronts that provide a holistic view on consistency-diversity-realism multi-objective. Our experiments suggest that realism and consistency can both be improved simultaneously; however there exists a clear tradeoff between realism/consistency and diversity. By looking at Pareto optimal points, we note that earlier models are better at representation diversity and worse in consistency/realism, and more recent models excel in consistency/realism while decreasing significantly the representation diversity. By computing Pareto fronts on a geodiverse dataset, we find that the first version of latent diffusion models tends to perform better than more recent models in all axes of evaluation, and there exist pronounced consistency-diversity-realism disparities between geographical regions. Overall, our analysis clearly shows that there is no best model and the choice of model should be determined by the downstream application. With this analysis, we invite the research community to consider Pareto fronts as an analytical tool to measure progress towards world models.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 14, 2024

Verifiable Hidden Dynamics Play: Generating Agentic RL Environments from Solved Mechanisms

Language-model agents increasingly face long-horizon tasks with evolving state, interdependent decisions, and delayed outcomes. Scaling their training requires diverse agentic environments, dependable outcome signals, and low extension cost. Existing generation pipelines commonly construct an environment before defining its outcome rule or annotating its trajectories, leaving dynamics and evaluation to be aligned post hoc. VHD-Play reverses this dependency by sampling and solving a mathematical model before a corpus-grounded setter renders its decision process as stateful tools. The executable dynamics and trajectory-scoring reference are inherited from the same solved model. The pipeline produces 3,300 diverse agentic environments at a cost of a few cents each. Training Qwen3.6-35B-A3B on three families raises its mean agentic score from 0.204 to 0.815 in a five-family diagnostic. Gains also appear on held-out instances from all three training families and eight unseen mechanism families, then extend beyond the generated substrate to external benchmarks for general function calling, travel planning, and 365-day e-commerce. On E-Commerce Bench, the trained checkpoint completes every run without bankruptcy and exceeds Qwen3.7-Max. We compare written-out problems with stateful versions that reveal or hide their parameters. The comparison shows that most of the learnable gap lies in stateful interaction rather than underlying problem solving. A frozen 35B setter realizes larger environments, and scale-matched training retains gains as mechanism size and horizon grow, indicating the potential for an evolving training substrate.

Qwen Qwen
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Sep 22 1

Synthetic Computers at Scale for Long-Horizon Productivity Simulation

Realistic long-horizon productivity work is strongly conditioned on user-specific computer environments, where much of the work context is stored and organized through directory structures and content-rich artifacts. To scale synthetic data creation for such productivity scenarios, we introduce Synthetic Computers at Scale, a scalable methodology for creating such environments with realistic folder hierarchies and content-rich artifacts (e.g., documents, spreadsheets, and presentations). Conditioned on each synthetic computer, we run long-horizon simulations: one agent creates productivity objectives that are specific to the computer's user and require multiple professional deliverables and about a month of human work; another agent then acts as that user and keeps working across the computer -- for example, navigating the filesystem for grounding, coordinating with simulated collaborators, and producing professional artifacts -- until these objectives are completed. In preliminary experiments, we create 1,000 synthetic computers and run long-horizon simulations on them; each run requires over 8 hours of agent runtime and spans more than 2,000 turns on average. These simulations produce rich experiential learning signals, whose effectiveness is validated by significant improvements in agent performance on both in-domain and out-of-domain productivity evaluations. Given that personas are abundant at billion scale, this methodology can in principle scale to millions or even billions of synthetic user worlds with sufficient compute, enabling broader coverage of diverse professions, roles, contexts, environments, and productivity needs. We argue that scalable synthetic computer creation, together with at-scale simulations, is highly promising as a foundational substrate for agent self-improvement and agentic reinforcement learning in long-horizon productivity scenarios.

microsoft Microsoft
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Apr 29 2

Belief-reality separation lives in routing over a shared value slot in language models

Capable language models hold what a character believes apart from what is true: told "Anna believes the cup is blue; in reality it is red," they answer blue about Anna and red about the world. Where in the computation does that separation live? We show it rests on two separable mechanisms at two positions. A generic value slot binds the attributed value. A router at the query position selects which frame, the character's belief or reality, a query reads out. Two routes fill the slot: an asserted belief, whose value the text supplies, binds in directly; a derived belief, whose value must be inferred from what the character could see, arrives by a visibility-gated lookback. A subspace trained on either route steers the other, and only the derived route depends on described visibility. The slot itself carries no belief-reality tag: intervening on it moves a reality readout as strongly as a belief one. The separation lives instead in a dissociated pair of routing subspaces, which flip a query between frames without injecting the donor's value. These results hold across three architectures, on stimuli de-confounded against theory-of-mind-benchmark shortcuts; the behavior itself emerges between 3B and 7B across five model families. This paper develops the single belief-reality axis in depth; a companion paper shows the same slot-and-router format is shared across the other non-actual contexts a sentence can open (counterfactual, fictional, temporal).

  • 3 authors
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Jul 10

Authoring for Living Worlds: Tool-Constrained LLM Agents for Executable Multi-Actor Scenarios

Authoring a multi-actor scenario for a living 3D world, where every action changes its state, and each action's validity depends on the state accumulated before it, demands the freedom of storytelling and the rigor of simulation at once. We author such scenarios with LLM agents, as Graphs of Events in Space and Time (GESTs) that a simulation engine executes deterministically into narrative videos with per-frame spatial, temporal, and semantic ground truth. A staged pipeline driving a flagship LLM, the standard design in video generation, failed outright: the model violates rules stated verbatim in its prompt, and cannot track the dynamic world state. We answer with a constraint-enforcing tool layer: our Director and Scene Builder agents explore the world's capabilities page by page and build every scene through operations checked against simulator state, so every specification they emit is valid by construction. Because we generate each seed text from an existing scenario graph, we can measure reconstruction: the agent authors its own graph from the text alone, yet matches the original at 0.83 F1 on its events, each action with its participants (0.55 for a random scenario of the same kind), and 0.77 on their ordering (0.43 random). End to end: the standard staged pipeline produced 0 executable specifications in 50 attempts; our agents, driving a budget model, execute 20 of 25 (80%), and are, to our knowledge, the first to exercise the full expressive capacity of GEST.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 28

Foundations of Artificial Intelligence Frameworks: Notion and Limits of AGI

Within the limited scope of this paper, we argue that artificial general intelligence cannot emerge from current neural network paradigms regardless of scale, nor is such an approach healthy for the field at present. Drawing on various notions, discussions, present-day developments and observations, current debates and critiques, experiments, and so on in between philosophy, including the Chinese Room Argument and Gödelian argument, neuroscientific ideas, computer science, the theoretical consideration of artificial intelligence, and learning theory, we address conceptually that neural networks are architecturally insufficient for genuine understanding. They operate as static function approximators of a limited encoding framework - a 'sophisticated sponge' exhibiting complex behaviours without structural richness that constitute intelligence. We critique the theoretical foundations the field relies on and created of recent times; for example, an interesting heuristic as neural scaling law (as an example, arXiv:2001.08361 ) made prominent in a wrong way of interpretation, The Universal Approximation Theorem addresses the wrong level of abstraction and, in parts, partially, the question of current architectures lacking dynamic restructuring capabilities. We propose a framework distinguishing existential facilities (computational substrate) from architectural organization (interpretive structures), and outline principles for what genuine machine intelligence would require, and furthermore, a conceptual method of structuralizing the richer framework on which the principle of neural network system takes hold.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 23, 2025

An idealized physical model for the severe convective storm environmental sounding

This work develops a theoretical model for steady thermodynamic and kinematic profiles for severe convective storm environments, building off of the two-layer static energy framework developed in Agard and Emanuel (2017). The model is phrased in terms of static energy, and it allows for independent variation of the boundary layer and free troposphere separated by a capping inversion. An algorithm is presented to apply the model to generate a sounding for numerical simulations of severe convective storms, and the model is compared and contrasted with that of Weisman and Klemp. The model is then fit to a case-study sounding associated with the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak, and its potential utility is demonstrated via idealized numerical simulation experiments. A long-lived supercell is successfully simulated with the historical sounding but not the analogous theoretical sounding. Two types of example experiments are then performed that do simulate a long-lived supercell: 1) a semi-theoretical experiment in which a portion of the theoretical sounding is modified to match the real sounding (low-level moisture); 2) a fully-theoretical experiment in which a model physical parameter is modified (free-tropospheric relative humidity). Overall, the construction of this minimal model is flexible and amenable to additional modifications as needed. The model offers a novel framework that may be useful for testing how severe convective storms depend on the vertical structure of the hydrostatic environment, as well as for linking variability in these environments to the physical processes that produce them within the climate system.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 27, 2020

ACE2-SOM: Coupling to a slab ocean and learning the sensitivity of climate to changes in CO_2

While autoregressive machine-learning-based emulators have been trained to produce stable and accurate rollouts in the climate of the present-day and recent past, none so far have been trained to emulate the sensitivity of climate to substantial changes in CO_2 or other greenhouse gases. As an initial step we couple the Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 to a slab ocean model (hereafter ACE2-SOM) and train it on output from a collection of equilibrium-climate physics-based reference simulations with varying levels of CO_2. We test it in equilibrium and non-equilibrium climate scenarios with CO_2 concentrations seen and unseen in training. ACE2-SOM performs well in equilibrium-climate inference with both in-sample and out-of-sample CO_2 concentrations, accurately reproducing the emergent time-mean spatial patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change with CO_2 doubling, tripling, or quadrupling. In addition, the vertical profile of atmospheric warming and change in extreme precipitation rates with increased CO_2 closely agree with the reference model. Non-equilibrium-climate inference is more challenging. With CO_2 increasing gradually at a rate of 2% year^{-1}, ACE2-SOM can accurately emulate the global annual mean trends of surface and lower-to-middle atmosphere fields but produces unphysical jumps in stratospheric fields. With an abrupt quadrupling of CO_2, ML-controlled fields transition unrealistically quickly to the 4xCO_2 regime. In doing so they violate global energy conservation and exhibit unphysical sensitivities of and surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes to instantaneous changes in CO_2. Future emulator development needed to address these issues should improve its generalizability to diverse climate change scenarios.

  • 9 authors
·
Dec 5, 2024

Dynamic Normativity: Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Value Alignment

The critical inquiry pervading the realm of Philosophy, and perhaps extending its influence across all Humanities disciplines, revolves around the intricacies of morality and normativity. Surprisingly, in recent years, this thematic thread has woven its way into an unexpected domain, one not conventionally associated with pondering "what ought to be": the field of artificial intelligence (AI) research. Central to morality and AI, we find "alignment", a problem related to the challenges of expressing human goals and values in a manner that artificial systems can follow without leading to unwanted adversarial effects. More explicitly and with our current paradigm of AI development in mind, we can think of alignment as teaching human values to non-anthropomorphic entities trained through opaque, gradient-based learning techniques. This work addresses alignment as a technical-philosophical problem that requires solid philosophical foundations and practical implementations that bring normative theory to AI system development. To accomplish this, we propose two sets of necessary and sufficient conditions that, we argue, should be considered in any alignment process. While necessary conditions serve as metaphysical and metaethical roots that pertain to the permissibility of alignment, sufficient conditions establish a blueprint for aligning AI systems under a learning-based paradigm. After laying such foundations, we present implementations of this approach by using state-of-the-art techniques and methods for aligning general-purpose language systems. We call this framework Dynamic Normativity. Its central thesis is that any alignment process under a learning paradigm that cannot fulfill its necessary and sufficient conditions will fail in producing aligned systems.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 16, 2024

If LLMs Have Human-Like Attributes, Then So Does Age of Empires II

Much research has been carried out on large language models (LLMs) and LLM-powered agentic workflows. However, many works within the field state emergence of, ascribe to, or assume, generalised anthropomorphic attributes to them (e.g., morality or understanding of natural language). Our goal is not to argue in favour or against the existence of these attributes, but to point out that these conclusions could be incorrect. For this we build and train a simple neural network on the videogame Age of Empires II, and note that any entity in a sufficiently-powerful substrate, such as LEGO or the Greater Boston Area, could also present such attributes. Hence, the purported anthropomorphic attributes of LLMs are empirically non-unique: although some properties (e.g., responses to prompts) could remain invariant, others, such as the interpretation of their perceived behaviour, might change with the substrate. Thus, any empirically-grounded discussion on these attributes requires explicit measurement criteria; otherwise the interpretation is left to the representation. We then show that assuming that these attributes exist or not in a system, independent of the substrate and in a generalised way, leads to either circular or uninformative conclusions. This is regardless of the experimenter's viewpoint on the subject, or whether the outcome shows existence or non-existence. Finally we propose a 'null' assumption, where one assumes LLM non-uniqueness instead of assuming anthropomorphic attributes to set up an experiment, along with examples of it. We also discuss potential objections to our work, briefly survey the field, and prove that Age of Empires II is functionally- and Turing-complete.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 10

Realiz3D: 3D Generation Made Photorealistic via Domain-Aware Learning

We often aim to generate images that are both photorealistic and 3D-consistent, adhering to precise geometry, material, and viewpoint controls. Typically, this is achieved by fine-tuning an image generator, pre-trained on billions of real images, using renders of synthetic 3D assets, where annotations for control signals are available. While this approach can learn the desired controls, it often compromises the realism of the images due to domain gap between photographs and renders. We observe that this issue largely arises from the model learning an unintended association between the presence of control signals and the synthetic appearance of the images. To address this, we introduce Realiz3D, a lightweight framework for training diffusion models, that decouples controls and visual domain. The key idea is to explicitly learn visual domain, real or synthetic, separately from other control signals by introducing a co-variate that, fed into small residual adapters, shifts the domain. Then, the generator can be trained to gain controllability, without fitting to specific visual domain. In this way, the model can be guided to produce realistic images even when controls are applied. We enhance control transferability to the real domain by leveraging insights about roles of different layers and denoising steps in diffusion-based generators, informing new training and inference strategies that further mitigate the gap. We demonstrate the advantages of Realiz3D in tasks as text-to-multiview generation and texturing from 3D inputs, producing outputs that are 3D-consistent and photorealistic.

facebook AI at Meta
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Mar 24 2

ClimateSet: A Large-Scale Climate Model Dataset for Machine Learning

Climate models have been key for assessing the impact of climate change and simulating future climate scenarios. The machine learning (ML) community has taken an increased interest in supporting climate scientists' efforts on various tasks such as climate model emulation, downscaling, and prediction tasks. Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models. However, both the climate science and ML communities have suggested that to address those tasks at scale, we need large, consistent, and ML-ready climate model datasets. Here, we introduce ClimateSet, a dataset containing the inputs and outputs of 36 climate models from the Input4MIPs and CMIP6 archives. In addition, we provide a modular dataset pipeline for retrieving and preprocessing additional climate models and scenarios. We showcase the potential of our dataset by using it as a benchmark for ML-based climate model emulation. We gain new insights about the performance and generalization capabilities of the different ML models by analyzing their performance across different climate models. Furthermore, the dataset can be used to train an ML emulator on several climate models instead of just one. Such a "super emulator" can quickly project new climate change scenarios, complementing existing scenarios already provided to policymakers. We believe ClimateSet will create the basis needed for the ML community to tackle climate-related tasks at scale.

  • 9 authors
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Nov 6, 2023

Learning to Build the Environment: Self-Evolving Reasoning RL via Verifiable Environment Synthesis

We pursue a vision for self-improving language models in which the model does not merely generate problems or traces to imitate, but constructs the environments that train it. In zero-data reasoning RL, this reframes self-improvement from a data-generation loop into an environment-construction loop, where each artifact is a reusable executable object that samples instances, computes references, and scores responses. Whether this vision sustains improvement hinges on a single property: the environments must exhibit stable solve--verify asymmetry, the model must be able to write an oracle once that it cannot reliably execute in natural language on fresh instances. This asymmetry takes two complementary forms. Some tasks are algorithmically hard to reason through but trivial as code: a dynamic program or graph traversal, compiled once, yields unboundedly many calibrated instances. Others are intrinsically hard to solve but easy to verify, like planted subset-sum or constraint satisfaction. Both create a durable gap between proposing and solving that the policy cannot close by gaming the verifier, and it is this gap that keeps reward informative as the learner improves. We instantiate this view in EvoEnv, a single-policy generator, solver method that synthesizes Python environments from ten seeds and admits them only after staged validation, semantic self-review, solver-relative difficulty calibration, and novelty checks. The strongest evidence comes from the already-strong regime: on Qwen3-4B-Thinking, fixed public-data RLVR and fixed hand-crafted environment RLVR reduce the average, while EvoEnv improves it from 72.4 to 74.8, a relative gain of 3.3%. Stable self-improvement, we suggest, depends not on producing more synthetic data, but on models learning to construct worlds whose difficulty stays structurally beyond their own reach.

  • 6 authors
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May 13 1

Reproducibility Study of "Cooperate or Collapse: Emergence of Sustainable Cooperation in a Society of LLM Agents"

This study evaluates and extends the findings made by Piatti et al., who introduced GovSim, a simulation framework designed to assess the cooperative decision-making capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in resource-sharing scenarios. By replicating key experiments, we validate claims regarding the performance of large models, such as GPT-4-turbo, compared to smaller models. The impact of the universalization principle is also examined, with results showing that large models can achieve sustainable cooperation, with or without the principle, while smaller models fail without it. In addition, we provide multiple extensions to explore the applicability of the framework to new settings. We evaluate additional models, such as DeepSeek-V3 and GPT-4o-mini, to test whether cooperative behavior generalizes across different architectures and model sizes. Furthermore, we introduce new settings: we create a heterogeneous multi-agent environment, study a scenario using Japanese instructions, and explore an "inverse environment" where agents must cooperate to mitigate harmful resource distributions. Our results confirm that the benchmark can be applied to new models, scenarios, and languages, offering valuable insights into the adaptability of LLMs in complex cooperative tasks. Moreover, the experiment involving heterogeneous multi-agent systems demonstrates that high-performing models can influence lower-performing ones to adopt similar behaviors. This finding has significant implications for other agent-based applications, potentially enabling more efficient use of computational resources and contributing to the development of more effective cooperative AI systems.

  • 4 authors
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May 14, 2025

4DWorldBench: A Comprehensive Evaluation Framework for 3D/4D World Generation Models

World Generation Models are emerging as a cornerstone of next-generation multimodal intelligence systems. Unlike traditional 2D visual generation, World Models aim to construct realistic, dynamic, and physically consistent 3D/4D worlds from images, videos, or text. These models not only need to produce high-fidelity visual content but also maintain coherence across space, time, physics, and instruction control, enabling applications in virtual reality, autonomous driving, embodied intelligence, and content creation. However, prior benchmarks emphasize different evaluation dimensions and lack a unified assessment of world-realism capability. To systematically evaluate World Models, we introduce the 4DWorldBench, which measures models across four key dimensions: Perceptual Quality, Condition-4D Alignment, Physical Realism, and 4D Consistency. The benchmark covers tasks such as Image-to-3D/4D, Video-to-4D, Text-to-3D/4D. Beyond these, we innovatively introduce adaptive conditioning across multiple modalities, which not only integrates but also extends traditional evaluation paradigms. To accommodate different modality-conditioned inputs, we map all modality conditions into a unified textual space during evaluation, and further integrate LLM-as-judge, MLLM-as-judge, and traditional network-based methods. This unified and adaptive design enables more comprehensive and consistent evaluation of alignment, physical realism, and cross-modal coherence. Preliminary human studies further demonstrate that our adaptive tool selection achieves closer agreement with subjective human judgments. We hope this benchmark will serve as a foundation for objective comparisons and improvements, accelerating the transition from "visual generation" to "world generation." Our project can be found at https://yeppp27.github.io/4DWorldBench.github.io/.

ASID: Active Exploration for System Identification in Robotic Manipulation

Model-free control strategies such as reinforcement learning have shown the ability to learn control strategies without requiring an accurate model or simulator of the world. While this is appealing due to the lack of modeling requirements, such methods can be sample inefficient, making them impractical in many real-world domains. On the other hand, model-based control techniques leveraging accurate simulators can circumvent these challenges and use a large amount of cheap simulation data to learn controllers that can effectively transfer to the real world. The challenge with such model-based techniques is the requirement for an extremely accurate simulation, requiring both the specification of appropriate simulation assets and physical parameters. This requires considerable human effort to design for every environment being considered. In this work, we propose a learning system that can leverage a small amount of real-world data to autonomously refine a simulation model and then plan an accurate control strategy that can be deployed in the real world. Our approach critically relies on utilizing an initial (possibly inaccurate) simulator to design effective exploration policies that, when deployed in the real world, collect high-quality data. We demonstrate the efficacy of this paradigm in identifying articulation, mass, and other physical parameters in several challenging robotic manipulation tasks, and illustrate that only a small amount of real-world data can allow for effective sim-to-real transfer. Project website at https://weirdlabuw.github.io/asid

  • 6 authors
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Apr 18, 2024

SWoMo: Neuro-Symbolic World Model for Cataract Surgery Simulation

Realistic surgical simulation plays a crucial role in training novice surgeons and in the development of autonomous agents. World models can scale such simulation environments to realistic and diverse procedures by predicting future patient states conditioned on current observations and surgical actions. However, current state-of-the-art approaches often fail to satisfy key criteria required for clinical applicability, including visual realism, physically grounded interactions, and the ability to simulate scenarios beyond the training distribution. Hence, we introduce SWoMo, a neuro-symbolic world model for cataract surgery simulation that decouples motion generation from visual realism. The symbolic component, consisting of a rule-based simulator and scene graph representations, models motion dynamics and tool-tissue interactions, while a diffusion model produces realistic visual appearance, including textures and tissue deformations. We propose an inverse pairing strategy that reconstructs real surgical videos in the simulator to obtain paired simulated and real videos, which are then used to train our video diffusion model for the reverse objective of sim-to-real translation. Our experiments show both qualitative and quantitative improvements over prior work. We demonstrate that our simulator further satisfies the key criteria, including generalisation to unseen interaction geometries, improvements in downstream phase detection, and unsupervised video style transfer. The code, data, and model weights are available at: https://ssharvienkumar.github.io/SWoMo/

  • 6 authors
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May 14

DATED: Guidelines for Creating Synthetic Datasets for Engineering Design Applications

Exploiting the recent advancements in artificial intelligence, showcased by ChatGPT and DALL-E, in real-world applications necessitates vast, domain-specific, and publicly accessible datasets. Unfortunately, the scarcity of such datasets poses a significant challenge for researchers aiming to apply these breakthroughs in engineering design. Synthetic datasets emerge as a viable alternative. However, practitioners are often uncertain about generating high-quality datasets that accurately represent real-world data and are suitable for the intended downstream applications. This study aims to fill this knowledge gap by proposing comprehensive guidelines for generating, annotating, and validating synthetic datasets. The trade-offs and methods associated with each of these aspects are elaborated upon. Further, the practical implications of these guidelines are illustrated through the creation of a turbo-compressors dataset. The study underscores the importance of thoughtful sampling methods to ensure the appropriate size, diversity, utility, and realism of a dataset. It also highlights that design diversity does not equate to performance diversity or realism. By employing test sets that represent uniform, real, or task-specific samples, the influence of sample size and sampling strategy is scrutinized. Overall, this paper offers valuable insights for researchers intending to create and publish synthetic datasets for engineering design, thereby paving the way for more effective applications of AI advancements in the field. The code and data for the dataset and methods are made publicly accessible at https://github.com/cyrilpic/radcomp .

  • 3 authors
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May 15, 2023

SimpleToM: Exposing the Gap between Explicit ToM Inference and Implicit ToM Application in LLMs

While prior work has explored whether large language models (LLMs) possess a "theory of mind" (ToM) - the ability to attribute mental states to oneself and others - there has been little work testing whether LLMs can implicitly apply such knowledge to predict behavior, or to judge whether an observed behavior is rational. Such skills are critical for appropriate interaction in social environments. We create a new dataset, SimpleTom, containing concise, diverse stories (e.g., "The can of Pringles has moldy chips in it. Mary picks up the can in the supermarket and walks to the cashier."), each with three questions that test different degrees of ToM reasoning, asking models to predict (a) mental state ("Is Mary aware of the mold?"), (b) behavior ("Will Mary pay for the chips or report the mold?"), and (c) judgment ("Mary paid for the chips. Was that reasonable?"). To our knowledge, SimpleToM is the first dataset to systematically explore downstream reasoning requiring knowledge of mental states in realistic scenarios. Our experimental results are intriguing: While most models can reliably predict mental state on our dataset (a), they often fail to correctly predict the behavior (b), and fare even worse at judging whether given behaviors are reasonable (c), despite being correctly aware of the protagonist's mental state should make such secondary predictions obvious. We further show that we can help models do better at (b) and (c) via interventions such as reminding the model of its earlier mental state answer and mental-state-specific chain-of-thought prompting, raising the action prediction accuracies (e.g., from 49.5% to 93.5% for GPT-4o) and judgment accuracies (e.g., from 15.3% to 94.7% in GPT-4o). While this shows that models can be coaxed to perform well, it requires task-specific interventions, and the natural model performances remain low, a cautionary tale for LLM deployment.

  • 7 authors
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Oct 17, 2024

Disentangling the effects of sea surface temperature and CO_2 in global machine learned weather-climate emulators

While previous versions of the Ai2 Climate Emulator (ACE) have been trained with CO_2 as a forcing, they are only accurate within a narrow range of scenarios, for example climate over the last 80 years forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and CO_2 (AMIP), or equilibrium or near-equilibrium climates with CO_2 concentrations ranging from 1x to 4x that of the present day. Attempting to simulate climate forced by AMIP SST perturbed by +4 K or the response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO_2, results in unphysical behavior. We attribute this to these models being trained on datasets where the SST and CO_2 are correlated, limiting their ability to accurately learn their separate effects. In this study we introduce a new class of "random-CO_2" reference simulations where the SST and CO_2 are prescribed to vary independently. Trained on a balance of AMIP, equilibrium-climate, and random-CO_2 data, and including a total energy conservation constraint for improved interpretability, we present a more data-efficient model that not only accurately emulates its reference model in scenarios in which previous models excelled, but also scenarios like AMIP +4 K and slab-ocean-coupled abrupt 4xCO_2 where they did not. Limitations are that it has simplified or prescribed representations of other Earth system components like the ocean, land, and sea ice; does not expose other known climate drivers as forcings; and relies solely on physics-based model output for training data, inheriting the biases relative to observations thereof. Each of these represent opportunities for future work.

  • 11 authors
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Jun 5

Precision Is Not Faithfulness: Coverage-Aware Evaluation of Grounded Generation with a Complete Oracle

Reference-free faithfulness metrics verify each atomic claim a model makes against ground truth, and are increasingly used to evaluate grounded generation. We show they share a blind spot: they measure only precision -- are the stated claims supported? -- and therefore reward abstention, since a model can score near-perfect faithfulness by saying almost nothing. We make this measurable using Formula 1 telemetry, a domain where strategic ground truth is derived deterministically and, crucially, completely: for each decision we know the full set of facts that mattered. This completeness -- absent in open-domain faithfulness benchmarks -- lets us measure recall (coverage of the relevant facts) exactly, alongside precision. On a multilingual (EN/ES/PT) benchmark of 7,253 decision instances spanning 150 races, the most precise frontier model covers under half of the relevant facts and ranks last by F1, so requiring coverage reorders the systems; the same effect reappears in a second complete-oracle domain (NOAA weather forecasts). A prompt ablation shows the low coverage is not an under-prompting artifact: explicitly asking models to be thorough does not close the gap. We pair faithfulness with coverage into a single score, validate the metric (controlled perturbation; agreement across a model-free regex extractor and a cross-family LLM extractor, system-level Spearman 1.0), and give a verifier-guided generation method that improves precision and recall without references. We release the benchmark, structured annotations, metric, baselines, and an interactive demo.

  • 1 authors
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Jun 7 6