Daily Papers

Diffusion models have recently been increasingly applied to temporal data such as video, fluid mechanics simulations, or climate data. These methods generally treat subsequent frames equally regarding the amount of noise in the diffusion process. This paper explores Rolling Diffusion: a new approach that uses a sliding window denoising process. It ensures that the diffusion process progressively corrupts through time by assigning more noise to frames that appear later in a sequence, reflecting greater uncertainty about the future as the generation process unfolds. Empirically, we show that when the temporal dynamics are complex, Rolling Diffusion is superior to standard diffusion. In particular, this result is demonstrated in a video prediction task using the Kinetics-600 video dataset and in a chaotic fluid dynamics forecasting experiment.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

Chaotic systems are intrinsically sensitive to small errors, challenging efforts to construct predictive data-driven models of real-world dynamical systems such as fluid flows or neuronal activity. Prior efforts comprise either specialized models trained separately on individual time series, or foundation models trained on vast time series databases with little underlying dynamical structure. Motivated by dynamical systems theory, we present Panda, Patched Attention for Nonlinear DynAmics. We train Panda on a novel synthetic, extensible dataset of 2 times 10^4 chaotic dynamical systems that we discover using an evolutionary algorithm. Trained purely on simulated data, Panda exhibits emergent properties: zero-shot forecasting of unseen real world chaotic systems, and nonlinear resonance patterns in cross-channel attention heads. Despite having been trained only on low-dimensional ordinary differential equations, Panda spontaneously develops the ability to predict partial differential equations without retraining. We demonstrate a neural scaling law for differential equations, underscoring the potential of pretrained models for probing abstract mathematical domains like nonlinear dynamics.

Long-term forecasting of chaotic systems from short-term observations remains a fundamental and underexplored challenge due to the intrinsic sensitivity to initial conditions and the complex geometry of strange attractors. Existing approaches often rely on long-term training data or focus on short-term sequence correlations, struggling to maintain predictive stability and dynamical coherence over extended horizons. We propose PhyxMamba, a novel framework that integrates a Mamba-based state-space model with physics-informed principles to capture the underlying dynamics of chaotic systems. By reconstructing the attractor manifold from brief observations using time-delay embeddings, PhyxMamba extracts global dynamical features essential for accurate forecasting. Our generative training scheme enables Mamba to replicate the physical process, augmented by multi-token prediction and attractor geometry regularization for physical constraints, enhancing prediction accuracy and preserving key statistical invariants. Extensive evaluations on diverse simulated and real-world chaotic systems demonstrate that PhyxMamba delivers superior long-term forecasting and faithfully captures essential dynamical invariants from short-term data. This framework opens new avenues for reliably predicting chaotic systems under observation-scarce conditions, with broad implications across climate science, neuroscience, epidemiology, and beyond. Our code is open-source at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/PhyxMamba.

This chapter offers a principled approach to the prediction of chaotic systems from data. First, we introduce some concepts from dynamical systems' theory and chaos theory. Second, we introduce machine learning approaches for time-forecasting chaotic dynamics, such as echo state networks and long-short-term memory networks, whilst keeping a dynamical systems' perspective. Third, the lecture contains informal interpretations and pedagogical examples with prototypical chaotic systems (e.g., the Lorenz system), which elucidate the theory. The chapter is complemented by coding tutorials (online) at https://github.com/MagriLab/Tutorials.

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting, where generating stable and accurate rollout forecasts remains challenging, Our method, DYffusion, leverages the temporal dynamics in the data, directly coupling it with the diffusion steps in the model. We train a stochastic, time-conditioned interpolator and a forecaster network that mimic the forward and reverse processes of standard diffusion models, respectively. DYffusion naturally facilitates multi-step and long-range forecasting, allowing for highly flexible, continuous-time sampling trajectories and the ability to trade-off performance with accelerated sampling at inference time. In addition, the dynamics-informed diffusion process in DYffusion imposes a strong inductive bias and significantly improves computational efficiency compared to traditional Gaussian noise-based diffusion models. Our approach performs competitively on probabilistic forecasting of complex dynamics in sea surface temperatures, Navier-Stokes flows, and spring mesh systems.

Accurately predicting the future fluid is important to extensive areas, such as meteorology, oceanology and aerodynamics. However, since the fluid is usually observed from an Eulerian perspective, its active and intricate dynamics are seriously obscured and confounded in static grids, bringing horny challenges to the prediction. This paper introduces a new Lagrangian-guided paradigm to tackle the tanglesome fluid dynamics. Instead of solely predicting the future based on Eulerian observations, we propose the Eulerian-Lagrangian Dual Recurrent Network (EuLagNet), which captures multiscale fluid dynamics by tracking movements of adaptively sampled key particles on multiple scales and integrating dynamics information over time. Concretely, a EuLag Block is presented to communicate the learned Eulerian and Lagrangian features at each moment and scale, where the motion of tracked particles is inferred from Eulerian observations and their accumulated dynamics information is incorporated into Eulerian fields to guide future prediction. Tracking key particles not only provides a clear and interpretable clue for fluid dynamics but also makes our model free from modeling complex correlations among massive grids for better efficiency. Experimentally, EuLagNet excels in three challenging fluid prediction tasks, covering both 2D and 3D, simulated and real-world fluids.

Modern techniques for physical simulations rely on numerical schemes and mesh-refinement methods to address trade-offs between precision and complexity, but these handcrafted solutions are tedious and require high computational power. Data-driven methods based on large-scale machine learning promise high adaptivity by integrating long-range dependencies more directly and efficiently. In this work, we focus on fluid dynamics and address the shortcomings of a large part of the literature, which are based on fixed support for computations and predictions in the form of regular or irregular grids. We propose a novel setup to perform predictions in a continuous spatial and temporal domain while being trained on sparse observations. We formulate the task as a double observation problem and propose a solution with two interlinked dynamical systems defined on, respectively, the sparse positions and the continuous domain, which allows to forecast and interpolate a solution from the initial condition. Our practical implementation involves recurrent GNNs and a spatio-temporal attention observer capable of interpolating the solution at arbitrary locations. Our model not only generalizes to new initial conditions (as standard auto-regressive models do) but also performs evaluation at arbitrary space and time locations. We evaluate on three standard datasets in fluid dynamics and compare to strong baselines, which are outperformed both in classical settings and in the extended new task requiring continuous predictions.

Turbulence is a central testbed for machine learning on physical dynamics because its governing laws are known exactly. However, most existing studies remain in 2D, while 3D turbulence has fundamentally different physics and is far more costly to simulate. Existing 3D resources also typically provide only one realization per configuration, making it difficult to distinguish learning the dynamics from fitting the statistics of a single flow. In this paper, we introduce TIDE (Turbulent Incompressible DNS Ensembles), a 256^3 DNS corpus and benchmark for 3D incompressible turbulence, with 15 configurations on eight controlled axes, independent ensembles, pressure fields, and equation-level verification. The benchmark includes five tasks, standardized learned baselines, controlled generalization splits, and physical-fidelity metrics alongside pointwise error. Across the main forecasting configurations, current learned models barely outperform persistence and still make about twice the error of a spectral solver given the true equations. Moreover, lower pointwise error can coincide with severely distorted small-scale dynamics, showing that accuracy alone does not ensure physical fidelity. Generalization results further show that most regime shifts reflect limited training coverage, whereas forced-to-decay transfer exposes a missing conditioning variable: operators trained under forcing continue to predict driven evolution when the external drive is removed. Closing these accuracy, fidelity, and conditioning gaps is the central open problem made measurable by TIDE.

Generative models have demonstrated remarkable success in domains such as text, image, and video synthesis. In this work, we explore the application of generative models to fluid dynamics, specifically for turbulence simulation, where classical numerical solvers are computationally expensive. We propose a novel stochastic generative model based on stochastic interpolants, which enables probabilistic forecasting while incorporating physical constraints such as energy stability and divergence-freeness. Unlike conventional stochastic generative models, which are often agnostic to underlying physical laws, our approach embeds energy consistency by making the parameters of the stochastic interpolant learnable coefficients. We evaluate our method on a benchmark turbulence problem - Kolmogorov flow - demonstrating superior accuracy and stability over state-of-the-art alternatives such as autoregressive conditional diffusion models (ACDMs) and PDE-Refiner. Furthermore, we achieve stable results for significantly longer roll-outs than standard stochastic interpolants. Our results highlight the potential of physics-aware generative models in accelerating and enhancing turbulence simulations while preserving fundamental conservation properties.

Effective data-driven PDE forecasting methods often rely on fixed spatial and / or temporal discretizations. This raises limitations in real-world applications like weather prediction where flexible extrapolation at arbitrary spatiotemporal locations is required. We address this problem by introducing a new data-driven approach, DINo, that models a PDE's flow with continuous-time dynamics of spatially continuous functions. This is achieved by embedding spatial observations independently of their discretization via Implicit Neural Representations in a small latent space temporally driven by a learned ODE. This separate and flexible treatment of time and space makes DINo the first data-driven model to combine the following advantages. It extrapolates at arbitrary spatial and temporal locations; it can learn from sparse irregular grids or manifolds; at test time, it generalizes to new grids or resolutions. DINo outperforms alternative neural PDE forecasters in a variety of challenging generalization scenarios on representative PDE systems.

Traditional experimental and numerical approaches for fluid dynamics problems often suffer from high computational cost, mesh sensitivity, and limited capability in capturing complex physical behaviors. Moreover, conventional physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) frequently struggle in chaotic and highly unsteady flow regimes. In this work, we propose PhysicsFormer, a fast and efficient transformer-based physics-informed framework that incorporates multi-head encoder-decoder cross-attention. Unlike multilayer perceptron-based PINNs, PhysicsFormer operates on sequential representations constructed from spatio-temporal data, enabling effective learning of long-range temporal dependencies and improved propagation of initial condition information. A data-embedding strategy is employed to convert spatio-temporal points into pseudo-sequences, while a dynamics-weighted loss function replaces the standard PINNs formulation. Owing to its parallel learning structure, PhysicsFormer demonstrates superior computational efficiency compared to existing transformer-based approaches. The framework is validated on Burgers' equation and flow reconstruction governed by the Navier-Stokes equations, achieving mean squared errors on the order of 10^{-6}. In addition, an inverse problem involving parameter identification in the two-dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equations is investigated. For clean data, PhysicsFormer achieves zero identification error for both λ_1 and λ_2; under 1% Gaussian noise, the errors are 0.07% for λ_1 and 0% for λ_2. These results demonstrate that PhysicsFormer provides a reliable and computationally efficient surrogate modeling framework for time-dependent fluid flow problems.

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster readiness, reduced economic risk, and improved policy-making amidst climate change. Yet, S2S prediction remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of the system. At present, existing benchmarks for weather and climate applications, tend to (1) have shorter forecasting range of up-to 14 days, (2) do not include a wide range of operational baseline forecasts, and (3) lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a large-scale, multi-channel, physics-based benchmark for S2S prediction. ChaosBench has over 460K frames of real-world observations and simulations, each with 60 variable-channels and spanning for up-to 45 years. We also propose several physics-based, in addition to vision-based metrics, that enables for a more physically-consistent model. Furthermore, we include a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from 4 national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart. We establish two tasks that vary in complexity: full and sparse dynamics prediction. Our benchmark is one of the first to perform large-scale evaluation on existing models including PanguWeather, FourCastNetV2, GraphCast, and ClimaX, and finds methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fails on S2S task. We release our benchmark code and datasets at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

Estimating fluid dynamics is classically done through the simulation and integration of numerical models solving the Navier-Stokes equations, which is computationally complex and time-consuming even on high-end hardware. This is a notoriously hard problem to solve, which has recently been addressed with machine learning, in particular graph neural networks (GNN) and variants trained and evaluated on datasets of static objects in static scenes with fixed geometry. We attempt to go beyond existing work in complexity and introduce a new model, method and benchmark. We propose EAGLE, a large-scale dataset of 1.1 million 2D meshes resulting from simulations of unsteady fluid dynamics caused by a moving flow source interacting with nonlinear scene structure, comprised of 600 different scenes of three different types. To perform future forecasting of pressure and velocity on the challenging EAGLE dataset, we introduce a new mesh transformer. It leverages node clustering, graph pooling and global attention to learn long-range dependencies between spatially distant data points without needing a large number of iterations, as existing GNN methods do. We show that our transformer outperforms state-of-the-art performance on, both, existing synthetic and real datasets and on EAGLE. Finally, we highlight that our approach learns to attend to airflow, integrating complex information in a single iteration.

Weather forecasting is fundamentally challenged by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, necessitating probabilistic approaches to quantify uncertainty. While traditional ensemble prediction (EPS) addresses this through computationally intensive simulations, recent advances in Bayesian Deep Learning (BDL) offer a promising but often disconnected alternative. We bridge these paradigms through a unified hybrid Bayesian Deep Learning framework for ensemble weather forecasting that explicitly decomposes predictive uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components, learned via variational inference and a physics-informed stochastic perturbation scheme modeling flow-dependent atmospheric dynamics, respectively. We further establish a unified theoretical framework that rigorously connects BDL and EPS, providing formal theorems that decompose total predictive uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components under the hybrid BDL framework. We validate our framework on the large-scale 40-year ERA5 reanalysis dataset (1979-2019) with 0.25° spatial resolution. Experimental results show that our method not only improves forecast accuracy and yields better-calibrated uncertainty quantification but also achieves superior computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art probabilistic diffusion models. We commit to making our code open-source upon acceptance of this paper.

While the popularity of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) is steadily rising, to this date PINNs have not been successful in simulating dynamical systems whose solution exhibits multi-scale, chaotic or turbulent behavior. In this work we attribute this shortcoming to the inability of existing PINNs formulations to respect the spatio-temporal causal structure that is inherent to the evolution of physical systems. We argue that this is a fundamental limitation and a key source of error that can ultimately steer PINN models to converge towards erroneous solutions. We address this pathology by proposing a simple re-formulation of PINNs loss functions that can explicitly account for physical causality during model training. We demonstrate that this simple modification alone is enough to introduce significant accuracy improvements, as well as a practical quantitative mechanism for assessing the convergence of a PINNs model. We provide state-of-the-art numerical results across a series of benchmarks for which existing PINNs formulations fail, including the chaotic Lorenz system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation in the chaotic regime, and the Navier-Stokes equations in the turbulent regime. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that PINNs have been successful in simulating such systems, introducing new opportunities for their applicability to problems of industrial complexity.

Forecasting chaotic dynamical systems such as the Lorenz attractor is notoriously difficult: small numerical errors are amplified exponentially over long autoregressive rollouts. We study seven recurrent and convolutional architectures for the AI-DEEDS 2026 Chaotic Systems Challenge: a vanilla LSTM, an LSTM with additive attention, a Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), a BiLSTM trained with the Huber loss, a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), a CNN front-end followed by an LSTM, and a CNN front-end followed by a BiLSTM. All models share the same pre-processing, sequence length, and rollout procedure, isolating the contribution of each design choice. The challenge scores predictions on a 0-100 scale where higher is better. We obtain leaderboard scores between 45.72 and 58.81, with the BiLSTM trained with Huber loss being the strongest configuration. Two findings stand out: (i) adding additive attention to the unidirectional baseline degraded performance by over ten points, and (ii) prepending a CNN front-end to either an LSTM or a BiLSTM did not help and slightly hurt the score. Per-pair RMSE measurements confirm that the BiLSTM family generalizes better in the harder pairs (6-7), while the LSTM + Attention model collapses there (RMSE up to 8.94 on pair 6). We discuss why bidirectional context and a robust loss help in chaotic regimes while attention and CNN front-ends fail in this setting.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) provide a mesh-free approach for solving differential equations by embedding physical constraints into neural network training. However, PINNs tend to overfit within the training domain, leading to poor generalization when extrapolating beyond trained spatiotemporal regions. This work presents SPIKE (Sparse Physics-Informed Koopman-Enhanced), a framework that regularizes PINNs with continuous-time Koopman operators to learn parsimonious dynamics representations. By enforcing linear dynamics dz/dt = Az in a learned observable space, both PIKE (without explicit sparsity) and SPIKE (with L1 regularization on A) learn sparse generator matrices, embodying the parsimony principle that complex dynamics admit low-dimensional structure. Experiments across parabolic, hyperbolic, dispersive, and stiff PDEs, including fluid dynamics (Navier-Stokes) and chaotic ODEs (Lorenz), demonstrate consistent improvements in temporal extrapolation, spatial generalization, and long-term prediction accuracy. The continuous-time formulation with matrix exponential integration provides unconditional stability for stiff systems while avoiding diagonal dominance issues inherent in discrete-time Koopman operators.

Data-driven, deep-learning modeling frameworks have been recently developed for forecasting time series data. Such machine learning models may be useful in multiple domains including the atmospheric and oceanic ones, and in general, the larger fluids community. The present work investigates the possible effectiveness of such deep neural operator models for reproducing and predicting classic fluid flows and simulations of realistic ocean dynamics. We first briefly evaluate the capabilities of such deep neural operator models when trained on a simulated two-dimensional fluid flow past a cylinder. We then investigate their application to forecasting ocean surface circulation in the Middle Atlantic Bight and Massachusetts Bay, learning from high-resolution data-assimilative simulations employed for real sea experiments. We confirm that trained deep neural operator models are capable of predicting idealized periodic eddy shedding. For realistic ocean surface flows and our preliminary study, they can predict several of the features and show some skill, providing potential for future research and applications.

Accurate prediction of Lagrangian trajectories in turbulent flow remains challenging due to limited temporal information in transport functions. This paper shows that surrounding coherent motions sharing the same dynamics carry enough information to provide highly probable trajectories even from sparse temporal observations. The proposed coherent predictor builds on Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs), the advective transport barriers that govern the cohesive motion of neighbouring particles. Coherent trajectories are quantified using a local segmentation with the finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLE). The coherent predictor incorporates information from the particle's position history and neighbouring coherent velocity and acceleration into a novel cost function to predict its trajectory. The proposed cost function follows a physics-informed approach where the position history acts as a data fidelity term and the coherent velocity and acceleration act as physics-based regularisation constraints. We assess our proposed approach using both three-dimensional (3D) synthetic and experimental data of the wake behind a smooth cylinder and two-dimensional (2D) homogeneous isotropic turbulent (HIT) flow. The coherent predictor is deemed generic due to its consistent behaviour regardless of flow dimensions, Reynolds number, and flow topology. Our results show that the optimal cost function parameters can be modelled from the measurement uncertainties, giving lower prediction error and uncertainty than current methods. We see direct signatures of flow topology on the prediction error map, including the cylinder leading edge boundary layer, the sideward shear layers, and the vortex formation structures. These topologies are marked by high Lagrangian gradients and 3D directional motions.

Neural operators have proven to be a promising approach for modeling spatiotemporal systems in the physical sciences. However, training these models for large systems can be quite challenging as they incur significant computational and memory expense -- these systems are often forced to rely on autoregressive time-stepping of the neural network to predict future temporal states. While this is effective in managing costs, it can lead to uncontrolled error growth over time and eventual instability. We analyze the sources of this autoregressive error growth using prototypical neural operator models for physical systems and explore ways to mitigate it. We introduce architectural and application-specific improvements that allow for careful control of instability-inducing operations within these models without inflating the compute/memory expense. We present results on several scientific systems that include Navier-Stokes fluid flow, rotating shallow water, and a high-resolution global weather forecasting system. We demonstrate that applying our design principles to neural operators leads to significantly lower errors for long-term forecasts as well as longer time horizons without qualitative signs of divergence compared to the original models for these systems. We open-source our https://github.com/mikemccabe210/stabilizing_neural_operators{code} for reproducibility.

Numerical simulation of non-linear partial differential equations plays a crucial role in modeling physical science and engineering phenomena, such as weather, climate, and aerodynamics. Recent Machine Learning (ML) models trained on low-resolution spatio-temporal signals have shown new promises in capturing important dynamics in high-resolution signals, under the condition that the models can effectively recover the missing details. However, this study shows that significant information is often lost in the low-resolution down-sampled features. To address such issues, we propose a new approach, namely Temporal Stencil Modeling (TSM), which combines the strengths of advanced time-series sequence modeling (with the HiPPO features) and state-of-the-art neural PDE solvers (with learnable stencil modeling). TSM aims to recover the lost information from the PDE trajectories and can be regarded as a temporal generalization of classic finite volume methods such as WENO. Our experimental results show that TSM achieves the new state-of-the-art simulation accuracy for 2-D incompressible Navier-Stokes turbulent flows: it significantly outperforms the previously reported best results by 19.9% in terms of the highly-correlated duration time and reduces the inference latency into 80%. We also show a strong generalization ability of the proposed method to various out-of-distribution turbulent flow settings. Our code is available at "https://github.com/Edward-Sun/TSM-PDE".

Lagrangian turbulence lies at the core of numerous applied and fundamental problems related to the physics of dispersion and mixing in engineering, bio-fluids, atmosphere, oceans, and astrophysics. Despite exceptional theoretical, numerical, and experimental efforts conducted over the past thirty years, no existing models are capable of faithfully reproducing statistical and topological properties exhibited by particle trajectories in turbulence. We propose a machine learning approach, based on a state-of-the-art diffusion model, to generate single-particle trajectories in three-dimensional turbulence at high Reynolds numbers, thereby bypassing the need for direct numerical simulations or experiments to obtain reliable Lagrangian data. Our model demonstrates the ability to reproduce most statistical benchmarks across time scales, including the fat-tail distribution for velocity increments, the anomalous power law, and the increased intermittency around the dissipative scale. Slight deviations are observed below the dissipative scale, particularly in the acceleration and flatness statistics. Surprisingly, the model exhibits strong generalizability for extreme events, producing events of higher intensity and rarity that still match the realistic statistics. This paves the way for producing synthetic high-quality datasets for pre-training various downstream applications of Lagrangian turbulence.

A primary challenge in using neural networks to approximate nonlinear dynamical systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) is transforming these systems into a suitable format, especially when dealing with non-linearizable dynamics or the need for infinite-dimensional spaces for linearization. This paper introduces DyMixOp, a novel neural operator framework for PDEs that integrates insights from complex dynamical systems to address this challenge. Grounded in inertial manifold theory, DyMixOp transforms infinite-dimensional nonlinear PDE dynamics into a finite-dimensional latent space, establishing a structured foundation that maintains essential nonlinear interactions and enhances physical interpretability. A key innovation is the Local-Global-Mixing (LGM) transformation, inspired by convection dynamics in turbulence. This transformation effectively captures both fine-scale details and nonlinear interactions, while mitigating spectral bias commonly found in existing neural operators. The framework is further strengthened by a dynamics-informed architecture that connects multiple LGM layers to approximate linear and nonlinear dynamics, reflecting the temporal evolution of dynamical systems. Experimental results across diverse PDE benchmarks demonstrate that DyMixOp achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly reducing prediction errors, particularly in convection-dominated scenarios reaching up to 86.7\%, while maintaining computational efficiency and scalability.

Current deep learning models for dynamics forecasting struggle with generalization. They can only forecast in a specific domain and fail when applied to systems with different parameters, external forces, or boundary conditions. We propose a model-based meta-learning method called DyAd which can generalize across heterogeneous domains by partitioning them into different tasks. DyAd has two parts: an encoder which infers the time-invariant hidden features of the task with weak supervision, and a forecaster which learns the shared dynamics of the entire domain. The encoder adapts and controls the forecaster during inference using adaptive instance normalization and adaptive padding. Theoretically, we prove that the generalization error of such procedure is related to the task relatedness in the source domain, as well as the domain differences between source and target. Experimentally, we demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on both turbulent flow and real-world ocean data forecasting tasks.

Nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) and reservoir computing (RC) have shown promise in forecasting chaotic dynamical systems, such as the Lorenz-63 model and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. However, their reliance on fixed nonlinear transformations - polynomial expansions in NVAR or random feature maps in RC - limits their adaptability to high noise or complex real-world data. Furthermore, these methods also exhibit poor scalability in high-dimensional settings due to costly matrix inversion during optimization. We propose a data-adaptive NVAR model that combines delay-embedded linear inputs with features generated by a shallow, trainable multilayer perceptron (MLP). Unlike standard NVAR and RC models, the MLP and linear readout are jointly trained using gradient-based optimization, enabling the model to learn data-driven nonlinearities, while preserving a simple readout structure and improving scalability. Initial experiments across multiple chaotic systems, tested under noise-free and synthetically noisy conditions, showed that the adaptive model outperformed in predictive accuracy the standard NVAR, a leaky echo state network (ESN) - the most common RC model - and a hybrid ESN, thereby showing robust forecasting under noisy conditions.

We consider the relationship between Eulerian modal decompositions and Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs). The model sensitivity framework developed by Kaszás and Haller (2020) is used to express data-driven modal representations of fluid flow in a Lagrangian space. The method, based on the computation of the finite-time Lyapunov exponent, computes the amplitude perturbations experienced by fluid particles due to specific modal components of the flow. Demonstrations of the method are presented for both periodic and turbulent flows, including experimental data from the wake past an oscillating foil, numerical data of the classical cylinder wake flow, and a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a turbulent channel flow. This method provides a way to understand how Eulerian mode structures interact dynamically with features of the Lagrangian coherent structure across scales, offering additional physical insight into modal decompositions.

We integrate neural operators with diffusion models to address the spectral limitations of neural operators in surrogate modeling of turbulent flows. While neural operators offer computational efficiency, they exhibit deficiencies in capturing high-frequency flow dynamics, resulting in overly smooth approximations. To overcome this, we condition diffusion models on neural operators to enhance the resolution of turbulent structures. Our approach is validated for different neural operators on diverse datasets, including a high Reynolds number jet flow simulation and experimental Schlieren velocimetry. The proposed method significantly improves the alignment of predicted energy spectra with true distributions compared to neural operators alone. This enables the diffusion models to stabilize longer forecasts through diffusion-corrected autoregressive rollouts, as we demonstrate in this work. Additionally, proper orthogonal decomposition analysis demonstrates enhanced spectral fidelity in space-time. This work establishes a new paradigm for combining generative models with neural operators to advance surrogate modeling of turbulent systems, and it can be used in other scientific applications that involve microstructure and high-frequency content. See our project page: vivekoommen.github.io/NO_DM

We design a physics-aware auto-encoder to specifically reduce the dimensionality of solutions arising from convection-dominated nonlinear physical systems. Although existing nonlinear manifold learning methods seem to be compelling tools to reduce the dimensionality of data characterized by a large Kolmogorov n-width, they typically lack a straightforward mapping from the latent space to the high-dimensional physical space. Moreover, the realized latent variables are often hard to interpret. Therefore, many of these methods are often dismissed in the reduced order modeling of dynamical systems governed by the partial differential equations (PDEs). Accordingly, we propose an auto-encoder type nonlinear dimensionality reduction algorithm. The unsupervised learning problem trains a diffeomorphic spatio-temporal grid, that registers the output sequence of the PDEs on a non-uniform parameter/time-varying grid, such that the Kolmogorov n-width of the mapped data on the learned grid is minimized. We demonstrate the efficacy and interpretability of our approach to separate convection/advection from diffusion/scaling on various manufactured and physical systems.

We introduce BCAT, a PDE foundation model designed for autoregressive prediction of solutions to two dimensional fluid dynamics problems. Our approach uses a block causal transformer architecture to model next frame predictions, leveraging previous frames as contextual priors rather than relying solely on sub-frames or pixel-based inputs commonly used in image generation methods. This block causal framework more effectively captures the spatial dependencies inherent in nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics and physical phenomena. In an ablation study, next frame prediction demonstrated a 3.5x accuracy improvement over next token prediction. BCAT is trained on a diverse range of fluid dynamics datasets, including incompressible and compressible Navier-Stokes equations across various geometries and parameter regimes, as well as the shallow-water equations. The model's performance was evaluated on 6 distinct downstream prediction tasks and tested on about 8K trajectories to measure robustness on a variety of fluid dynamics simulations. BCAT achieved an average relative error of 1.18% across all evaluation tasks, outperforming prior approaches on standard benchmarks. With fine-tuning on a turbulence dataset, we show that the method adapts to new settings with more than 40% better accuracy over prior methods.

Chaotic dynamical systems (DS) are ubiquitous in nature and society. Often we are interested in reconstructing such systems from observed time series for prediction or mechanistic insight, where by reconstruction we mean learning geometrical and invariant temporal properties of the system in question (like attractors). However, training reconstruction algorithms like recurrent neural networks (RNNs) on such systems by gradient-descent based techniques faces severe challenges. This is mainly due to exploding gradients caused by the exponential divergence of trajectories in chaotic systems. Moreover, for (scientific) interpretability we wish to have as low dimensional reconstructions as possible, preferably in a model which is mathematically tractable. Here we report that a surprisingly simple modification of teacher forcing leads to provably strictly all-time bounded gradients in training on chaotic systems, and, when paired with a simple architectural rearrangement of a tractable RNN design, piecewise-linear RNNs (PLRNNs), allows for faithful reconstruction in spaces of at most the dimensionality of the observed system. We show on several DS that with these amendments we can reconstruct DS better than current SOTA algorithms, in much lower dimensions. Performance differences were particularly compelling on real world data with which most other methods severely struggled. This work thus led to a simple yet powerful DS reconstruction algorithm which is highly interpretable at the same time.

In this study, we propose a multi branched network approach to predict the dynamics of a physics attractor characterized by intricate and chaotic behavior. We introduce a unique neural network architecture comprised of Radial Basis Function (RBF) layers combined with an attention mechanism designed to effectively capture nonlinear inter-dependencies inherent in the attractor's temporal evolution. Our results demonstrate successful prediction of the attractor's trajectory across 100 predictions made using a real-world dataset of 36,700 time-series observations encompassing approximately 28 minutes of activity. To further illustrate the performance of our proposed technique, we provide comprehensive visualizations depicting the attractor's original and predicted behaviors alongside quantitative measures comparing observed versus estimated outcomes. Overall, this work showcases the potential of advanced machine learning algorithms in elucidating hidden structures in complex physical systems while offering practical applications in various domains requiring accurate short-term forecasting capabilities.

Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm for spatio-temporal modeling of fluid dynamics. However, existing approaches often suffer from limited generalization to unseen flow conditions and typically require retraining when applied to new scenarios. In this paper, we present LLM4Fluid, a spatio-temporal prediction framework that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) as generalizable neural solvers for fluid dynamics. The framework first compresses high-dimensional flow fields into a compact latent space via reduced-order modeling enhanced with a physics-informed disentanglement mechanism, effectively mitigating spatial feature entanglement while preserving essential flow structures. A pretrained LLM then serves as a temporal processor, autoregressively predicting the dynamics of physical sequences with time series prompts. To bridge the modality gap between prompts and physical sequences, which can otherwise degrade prediction accuracy, we propose a dedicated modality alignment strategy that resolves representational mismatch and stabilizes long-term prediction. Extensive experiments across diverse flow scenarios demonstrate that LLM4Fluid functions as a robust and generalizable neural solver without retraining, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy while exhibiting powerful zero-shot and in-context learning capabilities. Code and datasets are publicly available at https://github.com/qisongxiao/LLM4Fluid.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

In recent years, Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have emerged as a powerful and robust framework for solving nonlinear differential equations across a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines, including biology, geophysics, astrophysics and fluid dynamics. In the PINN framework, the governing partial differential equations, along with initial and boundary conditions, are encoded directly into the loss function, enabling the network to learn solutions that are consistent with the underlying physics. In this work, we employ the PINN framework to solve the dimensionless Navier-Stokes equations for three two-dimensional incompressible, steady, laminar flow problems without using any labeled data. The boundary and initial conditions are enforced in a hard manner, ensuring they are satisfied exactly rather than penalized during training. We validate the PINN predicted velocity profiles, drag coefficients and pressure profiles against the conventional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for moderate to high values of Reynolds number (Re). It is observed that the PINN predictions show good agreement with the CFD results at lower Re. We also extend our analysis to a transient condition and find that our method is equally capable of simulating complex time-dependent flow dynamics. To quantitatively assess the accuracy, we compute the L_2 normalized error, which lies in the range O(10^{-4}) - O(10^{-1}) for our chosen case studies.

We introduce Lagrangian Flow Networks (LFlows) for modeling fluid densities and velocities continuously in space and time. By construction, the proposed LFlows satisfy the continuity equation, a PDE describing mass conservation in its differentiable form. Our model is based on the insight that solutions to the continuity equation can be expressed as time-dependent density transformations via differentiable and invertible maps. This follows from classical theory of the existence and uniqueness of Lagrangian flows for smooth vector fields. Hence, we model fluid densities by transforming a base density with parameterized diffeomorphisms conditioned on time. The key benefit compared to methods relying on numerical ODE solvers or PINNs is that the analytic expression of the velocity is always consistent with changes in density. Furthermore, we require neither expensive numerical solvers, nor additional penalties to enforce the PDE. LFlows show higher predictive accuracy in density modeling tasks compared to competing models in 2D and 3D, while being computationally efficient. As a real-world application, we model bird migration based on sparse weather radar measurements.

Standard transformer attention computes pairwise similarity between queries and keys, treating all tokens as equally salient regardless of their intrinsic informational content. In turbulent fluid dynamics, coherent structures -- the energetically dominant, spatially organized patterns that persist amid background chaos -- carry a disproportionate fraction of total energy and govern all transport. We propose that tokens play an analogous role in transformer attention: informationally dense positions (morphological boundaries, syntactic heads, discourse markers) concentrate spectral energy and should attract proportionally more attention than background tokens (function words, repeated patterns, low-information filler). We propose Energy-Gated Attention (EGA): a simple modification that gates value aggregation by the spectral energy of key token embeddings, computed by a single learned linear projection that discovers the dominant spectral mode of the embedding field. On TinyShakespeare, EGA achieves +0.103 validation loss improvement with only 12,480 additional parameters (<0.26% overhead) and no measurable computational cost. The result is consistent on Penn Treebank (+0.101), demonstrating dataset independence. A systematic ablation across three wavelet families (fixed Morlet, Daubechies db2/db4, and a parametric Morlet) establishes that fixed structured bases are suboptimal -- the optimal energy direction is data-adaptive and non-sinusoidal -- while identifying learned wavelet packets as a promising open direction. The learned energy threshold converges to tau ~= 0.35 independently of initialization, corresponding to the fraction (~36%) of tokens carrying above-average spectral energy in English text, a stable linguistic property consistent with the fraction of content words in running English text.

While complex simulations of physical systems have been widely used in engineering and scientific computing, lowering their often prohibitive computational requirements has only recently been tackled by deep learning approaches. In this paper, we present GraphSplineNets, a novel deep-learning method to speed up the forecasting of physical systems by reducing the grid size and number of iteration steps of deep surrogate models. Our method uses two differentiable orthogonal spline collocation methods to efficiently predict response at any location in time and space. Additionally, we introduce an adaptive collocation strategy in space to prioritize sampling from the most important regions. GraphSplineNets improve the accuracy-speedup tradeoff in forecasting various dynamical systems with increasing complexity, including the heat equation, damped wave propagation, Navier-Stokes equations, and real-world ocean currents in both regular and irregular domains.

Simulations of turbulent flows in 3D are one of the most expensive simulations in computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Many works have been written on surrogate models to replace numerical solvers for fluid flows with faster, learned, autoregressive models. However, the intricacies of turbulence in three dimensions necessitate training these models with very small time steps, while generating realistic flow states requires either long roll-outs with many steps and significant error accumulation or starting from a known, realistic flow state - something we aimed to avoid in the first place. Instead, we propose to approach turbulent flow simulation as a generative task directly learning the manifold of all possible turbulent flow states without relying on any initial flow state. For our experiments, we introduce a challenging 3D turbulence dataset of high-resolution flows and detailed vortex structures caused by various objects and derive two novel sample evaluation metrics for turbulent flows. On this dataset, we show that our generative model captures the distribution of turbulent flows caused by unseen objects and generates high-quality, realistic samples amenable for downstream applications without access to any initial state.

Machine learning architectures, including transformers and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have revolutionized forecasting in applications ranging from text processing to extreme weather. Notably, advanced network architectures, tuned for applications such as natural language processing, are transferable to other tasks such as spatiotemporal forecasting tasks. However, there is a scarcity of ablation studies to illustrate the key components that enable this forecasting accuracy. The absence of such studies, although explainable due to the associated computational cost, intensifies the belief that these models ought to be considered as black boxes. In this work, we decompose the key architectural components of the most powerful neural architectures, namely gating and recurrence in RNNs, and attention mechanisms in transformers. Then, we synthesize and build novel hybrid architectures from the standard blocks, performing ablation studies to identify which mechanisms are effective for each task. The importance of considering these components as hyper-parameters that can augment the standard architectures is exhibited on various forecasting datasets, from the spatiotemporal chaotic dynamics of the multiscale Lorenz 96 system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, as well as standard real world time-series benchmarks. A key finding is that neural gating and attention improves the performance of all standard RNNs in most tasks, while the addition of a notion of recurrence in transformers is detrimental. Furthermore, our study reveals that a novel, sparsely used, architecture which integrates Recurrent Highway Networks with neural gating and attention mechanisms, emerges as the best performing architecture in high-dimensional spatiotemporal forecasting of dynamical systems.

Accurate air quality forecasting is crucial for protecting public health and guiding environmental policy, yet it remains challenging due to nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics, wind-driven transport, and distribution shifts across regions. Physics-based models are interpretable but computationally expensive and often rely on restrictive assumptions, whereas purely data-driven models can be accurate but may lack robustness and calibrated uncertainty. To address these limitations, we propose Neural Dynamic Diffusion-Advection Fields (NeuroDDAF), a physics-informed forecasting framework that unifies neural representation learning with open-system transport modeling. NeuroDDAF integrates (i) a GRU-Graph Attention encoder to capture temporal dynamics and wind-aware spatial interactions, (ii) a Fourier-domain diffusion-advection module with learnable residuals, (iii) a wind-modulated latent Neural ODE to model continuous-time evolution under time-varying connectivity, and (iv) an evidential fusion mechanism that adaptively combines physics-guided and neural forecasts while quantifying uncertainty. Experiments on four urban datasets (Beijing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Ancona) across 1-3 day horizons show that NeuroDDAF consistently outperforms strong baselines, including AirPhyNet, achieving up to 9.7% reduction in RMSE and 9.4% reduction in MAE on long-term forecasts. On the Beijing dataset, NeuroDDAF attains an RMSE of 41.63 μg/m^3 for 1-day prediction and 48.88 μg/m^3 for 3-day prediction, representing the best performance among all compared methods. In addition, NeuroDDAF improves cross-city generalization and yields well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as confirmed by ensemble variance analysis and case studies under varying wind conditions.

Complex, temporally evolving phenomena, from climate to brain activity, are governed by dynamical systems (DS). DS reconstruction (DSR) seeks to infer generative surrogate models of these from observed data, reproducing their long-term behavior. Existing DSR approaches require purpose-training for any new system observed, lacking the zero-shot and in-context inference capabilities known from LLMs. Here we introduce DynaMix, a novel multivariate ALRNN-based mixture-of-experts architecture pre-trained for DSR, the first DSR model able to generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain DS. Just from a provided context signal, without any re-training, DynaMix faithfully forecasts the long-term evolution of novel DS where existing time series (TS) foundation models, like Chronos, fail -- at a fraction of the number of parameters and orders of magnitude faster inference times. DynaMix outperforms TS foundation models in terms of long-term statistics, and often also short-term forecasts, even on real-world time series, like traffic or weather data, typically used for training and evaluating TS models, but not at all part of DynaMix' training corpus. We illustrate some of the failure modes of TS models for DSR problems, and conclude that models built on DS principles may bear a huge potential also for advancing the TS prediction field.

In this work, we introduce an efficient generation procedure to produce synthetic multi-modal datasets of fluid simulations. The procedure can reproduce the dynamics of fluid flows and allows for exploring and learning various properties of their complex behavior, from distinct perspectives and modalities. We employ our framework to generate a set of thoughtfully designed training datasets, which attempt to span specific fluid simulation scenarios in a meaningful way. The properties of our contributions are demonstrated by evaluating recently published algorithms for the neural fluid simulation and fluid inverse rendering tasks using our benchmark datasets. Our contribution aims to fulfill the community's need for standardized training data, fostering more reproducibile and robust research.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

This paper describes a method for learning low-dimensional approximations of nonlinear dynamical systems, based on neural-network approximations of the underlying Koopman operator. Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) provides a useful data-driven approximation of the Koopman operator for analyzing dynamical systems. This paper addresses a fundamental problem associated with EDMD: a trade-off between representational capacity of the dictionary and over-fitting due to insufficient data. A new neural network architecture combining an autoencoder with linear recurrent dynamics in the encoded state is used to learn a low-dimensional and highly informative Koopman-invariant subspace of observables. A method is also presented for balanced model reduction of over-specified EDMD systems in feature space. Nonlinear reconstruction using partially linear multi-kernel regression aims to improve reconstruction accuracy from the low-dimensional state when the data has complex but intrinsically low-dimensional structure. The techniques demonstrate the ability to identify Koopman eigenfunctions of the unforced Duffing equation, create accurate low-dimensional models of an unstable cylinder wake flow, and make short-time predictions of the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation.

We present an open-source Python library for simulating two-dimensional incompressible Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities in stratified shear flows. The solver employs a fractional-step projection method with spectral Poisson solution via Fast Sine Transform, achieving second-order spatial accuracy. Implementation leverages NumPy, SciPy, and Numba JIT compilation for efficient computation. Four canonical test cases explore Reynolds numbers 1000--5000 and Richardson numbers 0.1--0.3: classical shear layer, double shear configuration, rotating flow, and forced turbulence. Statistical analysis using Shannon entropy and complexity indices reveals that double shear layers achieve 2.8times higher mixing rates than forced turbulence despite lower Reynolds numbers. The solver runs efficiently on standard desktop hardware, with 384times192 grid simulations completing in approximately 31 minutes. Results demonstrate that mixing efficiency depends on instability generation pathways rather than intensity measures alone, challenging Richardson number-based parameterizations and suggesting refinements for subgrid-scale representation in climate models.

Foundations of a new projection-based model reduction approach for convection dominated nonlinear fluid flows are summarized. In this method the evolution of the flow is approximated in the Lagrangian frame of reference. Global basis functions are used to approximate both the state and the position of the Lagrangian computational domain. It is demonstrated that in this framework, certain wave-like solutions exhibit low-rank structure and thus, can be efficiently compressed using relatively few global basis. The proposed approach is successfully demonstrated for the reduction of several simple but representative problems.

Accurate short-term warnings for extreme precipitation are critical for global disaster mitigation but are hindered by a persistent predictability barrier at the 2-6 hour horizon -- the "nowcasting gray zone." In this window, traditional observation-based extrapolation fails due to error accumulation, while numerical weather prediction is computationally too slow to resolve storm-scale dynamics. Recent generative AI approaches attempt to bridge this gap by decomposing precipitation into separate deterministic advection and stochastic diffusion components. However, this decomposition can sever fundamental causal links between entangled atmospheric processes, such as the dynamic initiation of convection triggered by boundary advection. Here we present StormDiT, a unified generative model that treats weather evolution as a holistic spatiotemporal problem, learning the coupled physics of the gray zone without human-imposed structural priors. Trained on a massive dataset of 7,720 precipitation events from China, our model achieves a breakthrough in long-horizon stability. On a heavy-rainfall test set, it maintains skillful prediction for strong convection (ge 35 dBZ) with a Critical Success Index (CSI) near 0.2 across the full 6-hour forecast at 6-minute resolution. Crucially, the model exhibits superior probabilistic calibration, accurately quantifying operational risks. On the public SEVIR benchmark, our unified paradigm more than doubles the state-of-the-art 1-hour performance for heavy rain and establishes the first robust baseline for 3-hour forecasting. Furthermore, interpretability analysis reveals that the model attends to non-local physical precursors, such as outflow boundaries, explicitly validating its emergent understanding of convective organization.

Despite their ubiquity throughout science and engineering, only a handful of partial differential equations (PDEs) have analytical, or closed-form solutions. This motivates a vast amount of classical work on numerical simulation of PDEs and more recently, a whirlwind of research into data-driven techniques leveraging machine learning (ML). A recent line of work indicates that a hybrid of classical numerical techniques and machine learning can offer significant improvements over either approach alone. In this work, we show that the choice of the numerical scheme is crucial when incorporating physics-based priors. We build upon Fourier-based spectral methods, which are known to be more efficient than other numerical schemes for simulating PDEs with smooth and periodic solutions. Specifically, we develop ML-augmented spectral solvers for three common PDEs of fluid dynamics. Our models are more accurate (2-4x) than standard spectral solvers at the same resolution but have longer overall runtimes (~2x), due to the additional runtime cost of the neural network component. We also demonstrate a handful of key design principles for combining machine learning and numerical methods for solving PDEs.

Probabilistic weather forecasting requires not only accurate trajectories, but calibrated distributions over plausible atmospheric futures. Recent data-driven systems have achieved remarkable deterministic skill, and diffusion-based ensemble forecasters have substantially improved sample realism and uncertainty quantification. However, their inference cost scales with forecast horizon, ensemble size, and the number of denoising steps required for each transition, making large operational ensembles expensive. To address this, we present Tyche, a one-step conditional flow model for efficient probabilistic weather forecasting. Tyche models the conditional forecast distribution with a destination-aware average-velocity flow that maps Gaussian noise directly to future weather states in a single function evaluation (1-NFE). To make this one-step transport learnable in high-dimensional geophysical fields, we derive a JVP-regularized rectification objective that enforces temporal self-consistency across source and destination flow timesteps without explicitly forming Jacobians. The transport field is parameterized by an isotropic Swin-style transformer that preserves fine-scale spatial structure while remaining scalable on global grids. To improve ensemble reliability under autoregressive forecasting, we further introduce a rollout-based finetuning stage with curriculum CRPS calibration supervision. Experiments on ERA5 at 1.5^circ and 6-hour resolution show that our Tyche, using merely a single NFE, matches or exceeds the forecast skill and calibration of state-of-the-art multi-step generative baselines and the operational ECMWF IFS ensemble.

Acquisition of large datasets for three-dimensional (3D) partial differential equations are usually very expensive. Physics-informed neural operator (PINO) eliminates the high costs associated with generation of training datasets, and shows great potential in a variety of partial differential equations. In this work, we employ physics-informed neural operator, encoding the large-eddy simulation (LES) equations directly into the neural operator for simulating three-dimensional incompressible turbulent flows. We develop the LESnets (Large-Eddy Simulation nets) by adding large-eddy simulation equations to two different data-driven models, including Fourier neural operator (FNO) and implicit Fourier neural operator (IFNO) without using label data. Notably, by leveraging only PDE constraints to learn the spatio-temporal dynamics problem, LESnets retains the computational efficiency of data-driven approaches while obviating the necessity for data. Meanwhile, using large-eddy simulation equations as PDE constraints makes it possible to efficiently predict complex turbulence at coarse grids. We investigate the performance of the LESnets with two standard three-dimensional turbulent flows: decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence and temporally evolving turbulent mixing layer. In the numerical experiments, the LESnets model shows a similar or even better accuracy as compared to traditional large-eddy simulation and data-driven models of FNO and IFNO. Moreover, the well-trained LESnets is significantly faster than traditional LES, and has a similar efficiency as the data-driven FNO and IFNO models. Thus, physics-informed neural operators have a strong potential for 3D nonlinear engineering applications.

Climate and weather prediction traditionally relies on complex numerical simulations of atmospheric physics. Deep learning approaches, such as transformers, have recently challenged the simulation paradigm with complex network forecasts. However, they often act as data-driven black-box models that neglect the underlying physics and lack uncertainty quantification. We address these limitations with ClimODE, a spatiotemporal continuous-time process that implements a key principle of advection from statistical mechanics, namely, weather changes due to a spatial movement of quantities over time. ClimODE models precise weather evolution with value-conserving dynamics, learning global weather transport as a neural flow, which also enables estimating the uncertainty in predictions. Our approach outperforms existing data-driven methods in global and regional forecasting with an order of magnitude smaller parameterization, establishing a new state of the art.

Modeling Lagrangian turbulence remains a fundamental challenge due to its multiscale, intermittent, and non-Gaussian nature. Recent advances in data-driven diffusion models have enabled the generation of realistic Lagrangian velocity trajectories that accurately reproduce statistical properties across scales and capture rare extreme events. This study investigates three key aspects of diffusion-based modeling for Lagrangian turbulence. First, we assess architectural robustness by comparing a U-Net backbone with a transformer-based alternative, finding strong consistency in generated trajectories, with only minor discrepancies at small scales. Second, leveraging a deterministic variant of diffusion model formulation, namely the deterministic denoising diffusion implicit model (DDIM), we identify structured features in the initial latent noise that align consistently with extreme acceleration events. Third, we explore accelerated generation by reducing the number of diffusion steps, and find that DDIM enables substantial speedups with minimal loss of statistical fidelity. These findings highlight the robustness of diffusion models and their potential for interpretable, scalable modeling of complex turbulent systems.

Dynamical systems (DS) theory is fundamental for many areas of science and engineering. It can provide deep insights into the behavior of systems evolving in time, as typically described by differential or recursive equations. A common approach to facilitate mathematical tractability and interpretability of DS models involves decomposing nonlinear DS into multiple linear DS separated by switching manifolds, i.e. piecewise linear (PWL) systems. PWL models are popular in engineering and a frequent choice in mathematics for analyzing the topological properties of DS. However, hand-crafting such models is tedious and only possible for very low-dimensional scenarios, while inferring them from data usually gives rise to unnecessarily complex representations with very many linear subregions. Here we introduce Almost-Linear Recurrent Neural Networks (AL-RNNs) which automatically and robustly produce most parsimonious PWL representations of DS from time series data, using as few PWL nonlinearities as possible. AL-RNNs can be efficiently trained with any SOTA algorithm for dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR), and naturally give rise to a symbolic encoding of the underlying DS that provably preserves important topological properties. We show that for the Lorenz and R\"ossler systems, AL-RNNs discover, in a purely data-driven way, the known topologically minimal PWL representations of the corresponding chaotic attractors. We further illustrate on two challenging empirical datasets that interpretable symbolic encodings of the dynamics can be achieved, tremendously facilitating mathematical and computational analysis of the underlying systems.

Accurate prediction of extreme weather events remains a major challenge for artificial intelligence-based weather prediction systems. While deterministic models such as FuXi, GraphCast, and SFNO have achieved competitive forecast skill relative to numerical weather prediction, their ability to represent uncertainty and capture extremes is still limited. This study investigates how state-of-the-art deterministic artificial intelligence-based models respond to initial-condition perturbations and evaluates the resulting ensembles in forecasting extremes. Using four perturbation strategies (Gaussian, Perlin noise, Hemispheric Centered Bred Vectors, and Huge Ensembles), we generate 50 member ensembles for the August 2022 Pakistan floods and China heatwave, and complement these case studies with a global threshold-based evaluation. Ensemble skill is assessed against ERA5 and compared with IFS ENS and the AIFS ENS probabilistic model using deterministic and probabilistic metrics. Results show that simpler perturbations like Gaussian and Perlin noise produce similarly realistic ensemble spread and probabilistic skill as flow-based approaches like HCBV and HENS, narrowing but not closing the performance gap with numerical weather prediction ensembles, or native probabilistic models which retain the highest probabilistic skill across variables. Model choice is the dominant factor for ensemble performance, not perturbation method. Across variables, models capture temperature extremes more effectively than precipitation. These findings demonstrate that simple input perturbations can extend deterministic models toward probabilistic forecasting in hardware-constrained settings, supporting artificial intelligence-driven early warning systems.

Flow- and diffusion-based generative models have recently emerged as flexible and highly efficient forecasting models for dynamical systems. When combined with inference-time guidance, they offer a promising route to high-dimensional non-Gaussian data assimilation (DA), the problem of combining forecasts with observations to estimate latent system states. Existing filters, however, condition on a fixed history and assimilate only the most recent observation, leaving them unable to revise past states when new observations arrive. Estimates then stay tethered to a history that later observations may contradict, and errors accumulate over the assimilation run. To this end, we introduce **DAWIS**, a unified DA method covering filtering, fixed-lag smoothing, and block smoothing within a single framework. DAWIS replaces the single flow time of a state-level prior with a multitask stochastic interpolant over a window of consecutive states, assigning a separate flow time to each. An assimilation cycle inverts the window to a vector of per-state turning points and regenerates it under observation guidance, with the turning points controlling how strongly each state is held fixed, revised, or generated from scratch. The same construction can also absorb the forecast into the assimilation cycle, removing the need for a separate forecasting model. Experiments on challenging nonlinear systems show that DAWIS improves on both filtering and smoothing baselines under sparse, noisy, and nonlinear observations. The code for DAWIS is available at https://github.com/Erik-Wikingsson/DAWIS

Real-world time series are often governed by complex nonlinear dynamics. Understanding these underlying dynamics is crucial for precise future prediction. While deep learning has achieved major success in time series forecasting, many existing approaches do not explicitly model the dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce DeepEDM, a framework that integrates nonlinear dynamical systems modeling with deep neural networks. Inspired by empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and rooted in Takens' theorem, DeepEDM presents a novel deep model that learns a latent space from time-delayed embeddings, and employs kernel regression to approximate the underlying dynamics, while leveraging efficient implementation of softmax attention and allowing for accurate prediction of future time steps. To evaluate our method, we conduct comprehensive experiments on synthetic data of nonlinear dynamical systems as well as real-world time series across domains. Our results show that DeepEDM is robust to input noise, and outperforms state-of-the-art methods in forecasting accuracy. Our code is available at: https://abrarmajeedi.github.io/deep_edm.

Physiological time series signals reflect complex, multi-scale dynamical processes of the human body. Existing modeling studies focus on static tasks such as classification, event forecasting, or short-horizon next step prediction, while long-horizon signal-level forecasting and predictive nature of physiological signals remain underexplored. We introduce NormWear-2, a world model that encodes both multivariate physiological signals and clinical intervention variables into a shared latent space and models their joint temporal evolution as a dynamical system. Our approach combines inference from prior pre-trained knowledge (intuition) with instant non-parametric latent state transition adaptation (insight), enabling coherent forecasting across multiple temporal scales, conditioned on heterogeneous clinical interventions. During the pretraining phase, we find that chaos-theoretic balancing of dynamical regime diversity yields more robust representations, with a smaller balanced corpus outperforming one twice its size and capturing bifurcation regimes. We evaluate the world model performance across diverse real-world physiological datasets spanning heterogeneous temporal resolutions and intervention regimes, covering daily life, point-of-care, and clinical settings, including fitness planning, hemodialysis, diabetes management, and surgical monitoring. These evaluation datasets comprise records from 8,026 subjects, spanning study durations from 3.2 hours for high-resolution signal data to 2.3 years for longitudinal clinical biomarker tracking. NormWear-2 achieves the best overall forecasting performance across time, frequency, and latent representation domains, with significant improvements over state-of-the-art time series foundation models, while maintaining competitive downstream representation quality, providing a step toward general-purpose world models for physiological signals.

Simulating fluid flow around arbitrary shapes is key to solving various engineering problems. However, simulating flow physics across complex geometries remains numerically challenging and computationally resource-intensive, particularly when using conventional PDE solvers. Machine learning methods offer attractive opportunities to create fast and adaptable PDE solvers. However, benchmark datasets to measure the performance of such methods are scarce, especially for flow physics across complex geometries. We introduce FlowBench, a dataset for neural simulators with over 10K samples, which is currently larger than any publicly available flow physics dataset. FlowBench contains flow simulation data across complex geometries (parametric vs. non-parametric), spanning a range of flow conditions (Reynolds number and Grashoff number), capturing a diverse array of flow phenomena (steady vs. transient; forced vs. free convection), and for both 2D and 3D. FlowBench contains over 10K data samples, with each sample the outcome of a fully resolved, direct numerical simulation using a well-validated simulator framework designed for modeling transport phenomena in complex geometries. For each sample, we include velocity, pressure, and temperature field data at 3 different resolutions and several summary statistics features of engineering relevance (such as coefficients of lift and drag, and Nusselt numbers). %Additionally, we include masks and signed distance fields for each shape. We envision that FlowBench will enable evaluating the interplay between complex geometry, coupled flow phenomena, and data sufficiency on the performance of current, and future, neural PDE solvers. We enumerate several evaluation metrics to help rank order the performance of neural PDE solvers. We benchmark the performance of several baseline methods including FNO, CNO, WNO, and DeepONet.

We present a method for parametrizing sub-grid processes in the Shallow Water equations. We define coarse variables and local spatial averages and use a feed-forward neural network to learn sub-grid fluxes. Our method results in a local parametrization that uses a four-point computational stencil, which has several advantages over globally coupled parametrizations. We demonstrate numerically that our method improves energy balance in long-term turbulent simulations and also accurately reproduces individual solutions. The neural network parametrization can be easily combined with flux limiting to reduce oscillations near shocks. More importantly, our method provides reliable parametrizations, even in dynamical regimes that are not included in the training data.

We demonstrate several techniques to encourage practical uses of neural networks for fluid flow estimation. In the present paper, three perspectives which are remaining challenges for applications of machine learning to fluid dynamics are considered: 1. interpretability of machine-learned results, 2. bulking out of training data, and 3. generalizability of neural networks. For the interpretability, we first demonstrate two methods to observe the internal procedure of neural networks, i.e., visualization of hidden layers and application of gradient-weighted class activation mapping (Grad-CAM), applied to canonical fluid flow estimation problems -- (1) drag coefficient estimation of a cylinder wake and (2) velocity estimation from particle images. It is exemplified that both approaches can successfully tell us evidences of the great capability of machine learning-based estimations. We then utilize some techniques to bulk out training data for super-resolution analysis and temporal prediction for cylinder wake and NOAA sea surface temperature data to demonstrate that sufficient training of neural networks with limited amount of training data can be achieved for fluid flow problems. The generalizability of machine learning model is also discussed by accounting for the perspectives of inter/extrapolation of training data, considering super-resolution of wakes behind two parallel cylinders. We find that various flow patterns generated by complex interaction between two cylinders can be reconstructed well, even for the test configurations regarding the distance factor. The present paper can be a significant step toward practical uses of neural networks for both laminar and turbulent flow problems.

In this paper, we introduce a new class of score-based generative models (SGMs) designed to handle high-cardinality data distributions by leveraging concepts from mean-field theory. We present mean-field chaos diffusion models (MF-CDMs), which address the curse of dimensionality inherent in high-cardinality data by utilizing the propagation of chaos property of interacting particles. By treating high-cardinality data as a large stochastic system of interacting particles, we develop a novel score-matching method for infinite-dimensional chaotic particle systems and propose an approximation scheme that employs a subdivision strategy for efficient training. Our theoretical and empirical results demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of MF-CDMs for managing large high-cardinality data structures, such as 3D point clouds.

Clifford-Steerable CNNs (CSCNNs) provide a unified framework that allows incorporating equivariance to arbitrary pseudo-Euclidean groups, including isometries of Euclidean space and Minkowski spacetime. In this work, we demonstrate that the kernel basis of CSCNNs is not complete, thus limiting the model expressivity. To address this issue, we propose Conditional Clifford-Steerable Kernels, which augment the kernels with equivariant representations computed from the input feature field. We derive the equivariance constraint for these input-dependent kernels and show how it can be solved efficiently via implicit parameterization. We empirically demonstrate an improved expressivity of the resulting framework on multiple PDE forecasting tasks, including fluid dynamics and relativistic electrodynamics, where our method consistently outperforms baseline methods.

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather prediction, and urban planning. Neural Partial Differential Equations (Neural PDEs), which combine deep learning (DL) techniques with domain expertise (e.g., governing equations) for parameterization, have proven to be effective in capturing valuable correlations within spatiotemporal datasets. However, sparse and noisy measurements coupled with modeling approximation introduce aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. Therefore, quantifying uncertainties propagated from model inputs to outputs remains a challenge and an essential goal for establishing the trustworthiness of Neural PDEs. This work evaluates various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) approaches for both Forward and Inverse Problems in scientific applications. Specifically, we investigate the effectiveness of Bayesian methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and Monte-Carlo Dropout (MCD), and a more conventional approach, Deep Ensembles (DE). To illustrate their performance, we take two canonical PDEs: Burger's equation and the Navier-Stokes equation. Our results indicate that Neural PDEs can effectively reconstruct flow systems and predict the associated unknown parameters. However, it is noteworthy that the results derived from Bayesian methods, based on our observations, tend to display a higher degree of certainty in their predictions as compared to those obtained using the DE. This elevated certainty in predictions suggests that Bayesian techniques might underestimate the true underlying uncertainty, thereby appearing more confident in their predictions than the DE approach.

Reduced-order modeling (ROM) of time-dependent and parameterized differential equations aims to accelerate the simulation of complex high-dimensional systems by learning a compact latent manifold representation that captures the characteristics of the solution fields and their time-dependent dynamics. Although high-fidelity numerical solvers generate the training datasets, they have thus far been excluded from the training process, causing the learned latent dynamics to drift away from the discretized governing physics. This mismatch often limits generalization and forecasting capabilities. In this work, we propose Physics-informed ROM (Φ-ROM) by incorporating differentiable PDE solvers into the training procedure. Specifically, the latent space dynamics and its dependence on PDE parameters are shaped directly by the governing physics encoded in the solver, ensuring a strong correspondence between the full and reduced systems. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art data-driven ROMs and other physics-informed strategies by accurately generalizing to new dynamics arising from unseen parameters, enabling long-term forecasting beyond the training horizon, maintaining continuity in both time and space, and reducing the data cost. Furthermore, Φ-ROM learns to recover and forecast the solution fields even when trained or evaluated with sparse and irregular observations of the fields, providing a flexible framework for field reconstruction and data assimilation. We demonstrate the framework's robustness across various PDE solvers and highlight its broad applicability by providing an open-source JAX implementation that is readily extensible to other PDE systems and differentiable solvers, available at https://phi-rom.github.io.

Nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are powerful tools for modeling real-world dynamical systems. However, propagating initial state uncertainty through nonlinear dynamics, especially when the ODE is unknown and learned from data, remains a major challenge. This paper introduces a novel continuum dynamics perspective for model learning that enables formal uncertainty propagation by constructing Taylor series approximations of probabilistic events. We establish sufficient conditions for the soundness of the approach and prove its asymptotic convergence. Empirical results demonstrate the framework's effectiveness, particularly when predicting rare events.

Despite the increasing availability of high-performance computational resources, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations remain the workhorse for the analysis of turbulent flows in real-world applications. Linear eddy viscosity models (LEVM), the most commonly employed model type, cannot accurately predict complex states of turbulence. This work combines a deep-neural-network-based, nonlinear eddy viscosity model with turbulence realizability constraints as an inductive bias in order to yield improved predictions of the anisotropy tensor. Using visualizations based on the barycentric map, we show that the proposed machine learning method's anisotropy tensor predictions offer a significant improvement over all LEVMs in traditionally challenging cases with surface curvature and flow separation. However, this improved anisotropy tensor does not, in general, yield improved mean-velocity and pressure field predictions in comparison with the best-performing LEVM.

Data assimilation (DA) is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications, combining model forecasts with sparse and noisy observations to estimate latent system states. Classical high-dimensional DA methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter, rely on Gaussian approximations that are violated for complex dynamics or observation operators. To address this limitation, we introduce DAISI, a scalable filtering algorithm built on flow-based generative models that enables flexible probabilistic inference using data-driven priors. The core idea is to use a stationary, pre-trained generative prior that first incorporates forecast information through a novel inverse-sampling step, before assimilating observations via guidance-based conditional sampling. This allows us to leverage any forecasting model as part of the DA pipeline without having to retrain or fine-tune the generative prior at each assimilation step. Experiments on challenging nonlinear systems show that DAISI achieves accurate filtering results in regimes with sparse, noisy, and nonlinear observations where traditional methods struggle. The code for DAISI is available at https://github.com/Erik-Wikingsson/DAISI.

Numerical simulations in climate, chemistry, or astrophysics are computationally too expensive for uncertainty quantification or parameter-exploration at high-resolution. Reduced-order or surrogate models are multiple orders of magnitude faster, but traditional surrogates are inflexible or inaccurate and pure machine learning (ML)-based surrogates too data-hungry. We propose a hybrid, flexible surrogate model that exploits known physics for simulating large-scale dynamics and limits learning to the hard-to-model term, which is called parametrization or closure and captures the effect of fine- onto large-scale dynamics. Leveraging neural operators, we are the first to learn grid-independent, non-local, and flexible parametrizations. Our multiscale neural operator is motivated by a rich literature in multiscale modeling, has quasilinear runtime complexity, is more accurate or flexible than state-of-the-art parametrizations and demonstrated on the chaotic equation multiscale Lorenz96.

Many engineering problems involve phenomena whose governing equations are poorly characterized or only partially known. Surrogate modeling techniques such as neural networks can capture the behavior of these systems, but they typically demand large training datasets that are difficult to obtain in engineering contexts and yield models with limited physical interpretability. The Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) method addresses both limitations by performing sparse regression over libraries of candidate nonlinear terms, recovering interpretable governing equations from comparatively small datasets. Although SINDy has been demonstrated extensively on canonical benchmark systems, its application to practical engineering problems is less widely documented. This tutorial introduces the SINDy method and progressively builds toward its main extensions, from noise-robust weak-form and ensembling-based variants to constrained and parametrizable formulations. The paper and the accompanying tutorial (available at https://github.com/paullililili/SINDy4Engineers) is organized in three parts: the first introduces the standard SINDy algorithm and progressively extends it, inviting readers without prior knowledge to follow each step and adapt the methods to their own problems; the remaining two parts present detailed case studies on (1) the system identification of an unmanned aerial vehicle and (2) a chaotic thermosyphon heat exchanger. Through these examples, we aim to demonstrate that SINDy is simple to implement yet flexible enough to serve as a valuable identification tool for advanced engineering applications.

This paper presents a neural surrogate approach for improving the accuracy of natural convection problems simulated with a Boussinesq flow model (incompressible flow with heat transfer). Our approach, based on Fourier neural operators, uses training data consisting of matched pairs of simulations run under the computationally cheaper yet less accurate Boussinesq flow model and a more computationally expensive and more accurate compressible flow model. In both cases, we implement our parallelized simulation codes based on an implicit monolithic mixed finite element method (FEM) approach using the open-source FEniCSx framework. Our implementations are validated against a commercial software package, COMSOL, as well as standard test problems from the literature. We include a careful discussion and analysis of data set generation and present learning results in two and three spatial dimensions. Using compressible flow results as high-fidelity reference solutions, our learning approach, with a single model evaluation per simulation, substantially improves the per-channel accuracy of Boussinesq predictions, with structural similarity (SSIM) close to unity across all flow variables and test distributions and corresponding mean-squared error reductions of one to nearly three orders of magnitude. All code and data is released as open-source.

Surrogate models are necessary to optimize meaningful quantities in physical dynamics as their recursive numerical resolutions are often prohibitively expensive. It is mainly the case for fluid dynamics and the resolution of Navier-Stokes equations. However, despite the fast-growing field of data-driven models for physical systems, reference datasets representing real-world phenomena are lacking. In this work, we develop AirfRANS, a dataset for studying the two-dimensional incompressible steady-state Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations over airfoils at a subsonic regime and for different angles of attacks. We also introduce metrics on the stress forces at the surface of geometries and visualization of boundary layers to assess the capabilities of models to accurately predict the meaningful information of the problem. Finally, we propose deep learning baselines on four machine learning tasks to study AirfRANS under different constraints for generalization considerations: big and scarce data regime, Reynolds number, and angle of attack extrapolation.

Predicting flows that occur both through and around porous bodies is challenging due to coupled physics across fluid and porous regions and the need to generalize across diverse geometries and boundary conditions. We address this problem using two Physics Informed learning approaches: Physics Informed PointNets (PIPN) and Physics Informed Geometry Aware Neural Operator (P-IGANO). We enforce the incompressible Navier Stokes equations in the free-flow region and a Darcy Forchheimer extension in the porous region within a unified loss and condition the networks on geometry and material parameters. Datasets are generated with OpenFOAM on 2D ducts containing porous obstacles and on 3D windbreak scenarios with tree canopies and buildings. We first verify the pipeline via the method of manufactured solutions, then assess generalization to unseen shapes, and for PI-GANO, to variable boundary conditions and parameter settings. The results show consistently low velocity and pressure errors in both seen and unseen cases, with accurate reproduction of the wake structures. Performance degrades primarily near sharp interfaces and in regions with large gradients. Overall, the study provides a first systematic evaluation of PIPN/PI-GANO for simultaneous through-and-around porous flows and shows their potential to accelerate design studies without retraining per geometry.

Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to provide the analysis state of the system, which is then used to estimate the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, here the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, and closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

Differentiable programming techniques are widely used in the community and are responsible for the machine learning renaissance of the past several decades. While these methods are powerful, they have limits. In this short report, we discuss a common chaos based failure mode which appears in a variety of differentiable circumstances, ranging from recurrent neural networks and numerical physics simulation to training learned optimizers. We trace this failure to the spectrum of the Jacobian of the system under study, and provide criteria for when a practitioner might expect this failure to spoil their differentiation based optimization algorithms.

We introduce Poseidon, a foundation model for learning the solution operators of PDEs. It is based on a multiscale operator transformer, with time-conditioned layer norms that enable continuous-in-time evaluations. A novel training strategy leveraging the semi-group property of time-dependent PDEs to allow for significant scaling-up of the training data is also proposed. Poseidon is pretrained on a diverse, large scale dataset for the governing equations of fluid dynamics. It is then evaluated on a suite of 15 challenging downstream tasks that include a wide variety of PDE types and operators. We show that Poseidon exhibits excellent performance across the board by outperforming baselines significantly, both in terms of sample efficiency and accuracy. Poseidon also generalizes very well to new physics that is not seen during pretraining. Moreover, Poseidon scales with respect to model and data size, both for pretraining and for downstream tasks. Taken together, our results showcase the surprising ability of Poseidon to learn effective representations from a very small set of PDEs during pretraining in order to generalize well to unseen and unrelated PDEs downstream, demonstrating its potential as an effective, general purpose PDE foundation model. Finally, the Poseidon model as well as underlying pretraining and downstream datasets are open sourced, with code being available at https://github.com/camlab-ethz/poseidon and pretrained models and datasets at https://huggingface.co/camlab-ethz.

Data-driven modeling of fluid dynamics has advanced rapidly with neural PDE solvers, yet a fair and strong benchmark remains fragmented due to the absence of unified PDE datasets and standardized evaluation protocols. Although architectural innovations are abundant, fair assessment is further impeded by the lack of clear disentanglement between spatial, temporal and loss modules. In this paper, we introduce FD-Bench, the first fair, modular, comprehensive and reproducible benchmark for data-driven fluid simulation. FD-Bench systematically evaluates 85 baseline models across 10 representative flow scenarios under a unified experimental setup. It provides four key contributions: (1) a modular design enabling fair comparisons across spatial, temporal, and loss function modules; (2) the first systematic framework for direct comparison with traditional numerical solvers; (3) fine-grained generalization analysis across resolutions, initial conditions, and temporal windows; and (4) a user-friendly, extensible codebase to support future research. Through rigorous empirical studies, FD-Bench establishes the most comprehensive leaderboard to date, resolving long-standing issues in reproducibility and comparability, and laying a foundation for robust evaluation of future data-driven fluid models. The code is open-sourced at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FD-Bench-15BC.

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) leverage neural-networks to find the solutions of partial differential equation (PDE)-constrained optimization problems with initial conditions and boundary conditions as soft constraints. These soft constraints are often considered to be the sources of the complexity in the training phase of PINNs. Here, we demonstrate that the challenge of training (i) persists even when the boundary conditions are strictly enforced, and (ii) is closely related to the Kolmogorov n-width associated with problems demonstrating transport, convection, traveling waves, or moving fronts. Given this realization, we describe the mechanism underlying the training schemes such as those used in eXtended PINNs (XPINN), curriculum regularization, and sequence-to-sequence learning. For an important category of PDEs, i.e., governed by non-linear convection-diffusion equation, we propose reformulating PINNs on a Lagrangian frame of reference, i.e., LPINNs, as a PDE-informed solution. A parallel architecture with two branches is proposed. One branch solves for the state variables on the characteristics, and the second branch solves for the low-dimensional characteristics curves. The proposed architecture conforms to the causality innate to the convection, and leverages the direction of travel of the information in the domain. Finally, we demonstrate that the loss landscapes of LPINNs are less sensitive to the so-called "complexity" of the problems, compared to those in the traditional PINNs in the Eulerian framework.

We introduce a new class of time-continuous recurrent neural network models. Instead of declaring a learning system's dynamics by implicit nonlinearities, we construct networks of linear first-order dynamical systems modulated via nonlinear interlinked gates. The resulting models represent dynamical systems with varying (i.e., liquid) time-constants coupled to their hidden state, with outputs being computed by numerical differential equation solvers. These neural networks exhibit stable and bounded behavior, yield superior expressivity within the family of neural ordinary differential equations, and give rise to improved performance on time-series prediction tasks. To demonstrate these properties, we first take a theoretical approach to find bounds over their dynamics and compute their expressive power by the trajectory length measure in latent trajectory space. We then conduct a series of time-series prediction experiments to manifest the approximation capability of Liquid Time-Constant Networks (LTCs) compared to classical and modern RNNs. Code and data are available at https://github.com/raminmh/liquid_time_constant_networks

Recently, data-driven simulators based on graph neural networks have gained attention in modeling physical systems on unstructured meshes. However, they struggle with long-range dependencies in fluid flows, particularly in refined mesh regions. This challenge, known as the 'over-squashing' problem, hinders information propagation. While existing graph rewiring methods address this issue to some extent, they only consider graph topology, overlooking the underlying physical phenomena. We propose Physics-Informed Ollivier-Ricci Flow (PIORF), a novel rewiring method that combines physical correlations with graph topology. PIORF uses Ollivier-Ricci curvature (ORC) to identify bottleneck regions and connects these areas with nodes in high-velocity gradient nodes, enabling long-range interactions and mitigating over-squashing. Our approach is computationally efficient in rewiring edges and can scale to larger simulations. Experimental results on 3 fluid dynamics benchmark datasets show that PIORF consistently outperforms baseline models and existing rewiring methods, achieving up to 26.2 improvement.

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

Koopman theory turns nonlinear dynamics into a linear spectral problem. In computation, however, everything depends on a hard finite-dimensional choice: the observables must be expressive, nearly invariant under the dynamics, and, ideally, compatible with composition. Deep Koopman methods learn flexible coordinates, whereas structure-preserving methods enforce operator identities on fixed dictionaries. We combine these ideas by introducing Deep Embedded Multiplicative Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DeepMDMD), a method that learns a latent space and a partition of it, while enforcing the Koopman product rule as an exact algebraic constraint. Training alternates between an exact multiplicative operator update and a differentiable latent-clustering step that promotes Koopman closure. The result is a finite transition map on learned latent cells. Its nonzero spectrum lies on the unit circle, its dictionary is shaped by the dynamics rather than by ambient geometry, and forecasts are made in latent coordinates before being decoded to physical space. Across Hamiltonian, chaotic, and fluid examples, DeepMDMD learns dictionaries that are far more compact and dynamically coherent than those produced by geometric MDMD partitions. It reduces spectral pollution, reveals richer continuous-spectrum structure, and gives stable forecasts under severe noise. In high-dimensional flows, including a 158,624-dimensional cylinder wake and a noisy Re=20,000 lid-driven cavity, it preserves coherent structures and long-time spectral statistics where state-space MDMD fails. These results suggest a practical rule for Koopman learning: learn the coordinates, constrain the algebra.

Accurate weather forecasts are important for disaster prevention, agricultural planning, etc. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods offer physically interpretable high-accuracy predictions but are computationally expensive and fail to fully leverage rapidly growing historical data. In recent years, deep learning models have made significant progress in weather forecasting, but challenges remain, such as balancing global and regional high-resolution forecasts, excessive smoothing in extreme event predictions, and insufficient dynamic system modeling. To address these issues, this paper proposes a global-regional nested weather forecasting framework (OneForecast) based on graph neural networks. By combining a dynamic system perspective with multi-grid theory, we construct a multi-scale graph structure and densify the target region to capture local high-frequency features. We introduce an adaptive messaging mechanism, using dynamic gating units to deeply integrate node and edge features for more accurate extreme event forecasting. For high-resolution regional forecasts, we propose a neural nested grid method to mitigate boundary information loss. Experimental results show that OneForecast performs excellently across global to regional scales and short-term to long-term forecasts, especially in extreme event predictions. Codes link https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/OneForecast.

Partial Differential Equations are foundational in modeling science and natural systems such as fluid dynamics and weather forecasting. The Latent Evolution of PDEs method is designed to address the computational intensity of classical and deep learning-based PDE solvers by proposing a scalable and efficient alternative. To enhance the efficiency and accuracy of LE-PDE, we incorporate the Mamba model, an advanced machine learning model known for its predictive efficiency and robustness in handling complex dynamic systems with a progressive learning strategy. The LE-PDE was tested on several benchmark problems. The method demonstrated a marked reduction in computational time compared to traditional solvers and standalone deep learning models while maintaining high accuracy in predicting system behavior over time. Our method doubles the inference speed compared to the LE-PDE while retaining the same level of parameter efficiency, making it well-suited for scenarios requiring long-term predictions.

Simulating and controlling physical systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs) are crucial tasks across science and engineering. Recently, diffusion generative models have emerged as a competitive class of methods for these tasks due to their ability to capture long-term dependencies and model high-dimensional states. However, diffusion models typically struggle with handling system states with abrupt changes and generalizing to higher resolutions. In this work, we propose Wavelet Diffusion Neural Operator (WDNO), a novel PDE simulation and control framework that enhances the handling of these complexities. WDNO comprises two key innovations. Firstly, WDNO performs diffusion-based generative modeling in the wavelet domain for the entire trajectory to handle abrupt changes and long-term dependencies effectively. Secondly, to address the issue of poor generalization across different resolutions, which is one of the fundamental tasks in modeling physical systems, we introduce multi-resolution training. We validate WDNO on five physical systems, including 1D advection equation, three challenging physical systems with abrupt changes (1D Burgers' equation, 1D compressible Navier-Stokes equation and 2D incompressible fluid), and a real-world dataset ERA5, which demonstrates superior performance on both simulation and control tasks over state-of-the-art methods, with significant improvements in long-term and detail prediction accuracy. Remarkably, in the challenging context of the 2D high-dimensional and indirect control task aimed at reducing smoke leakage, WDNO reduces the leakage by 33.2% compared to the second-best baseline. The code can be found at https://github.com/AI4Science-WestlakeU/wdno.git.

River systems operate as inherently interconnected continuous networks, meaning river hydrodynamic simulation ought to be a systemic process. However, widespread hydrology data scarcity often restricts data-driven forecasting to isolated predictions. To achieve systemic simulation and reduce reliance on river observations, we present GraphRiverCast (GRC), a topology-informed AI foundation model designed to simulate multivariate river hydrodynamics in global river systems. GRC is capable of operating in a "ColdStart" mode, generating predictions without relying on historical river states for initialization. In 7-day global pseudo-hindcasts, GRC-ColdStart functions as a robust standalone simulator, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of approximately 0.82 without exhibiting the significant error accumulation typical of autoregressive paradigms. Ablation studies reveal that topological encoding serves as indispensable structural information in the absence of historical states, explicitly guiding hydraulic connectivity and network-scale mass redistribution to reconstruct flow dynamics. Furthermore, when adapted locally via a pre-training and fine-tuning strategy, GRC consistently outperforms physics-based and locally-trained AI baselines. Crucially, this superiority extends from gauged reaches to full river networks, underscoring the necessity of topology encoding and physics-based pre-training. Built on a physics-aligned neural operator architecture, GRC enables rapid and cross-scale adaptive simulation, establishing a collaborative paradigm bridging global hydrodynamic knowledge with local hydrological reality.

Two-dimensional Kolmogorov flow is a common proving ground for the dynamical systems picture of turbulence. Hundreds of unstable periodic orbits have been found for this system across many Reynolds numbers and domain sizes, although the most well explored is Re=40 on a square 2πtimes 2π domain with a forcing wavenumber of k=4. Here I present a catalog of 8952 exact steady states of the flow in this canonical parameter regime. These solutions provide a fixed constellation informing the dynamics of both turbulence and transients.

This work addresses the challenge of forecasting urban water dynamics by developing a multi-input, multi-output deep learning model that incorporates both endogenous variables (e.g., water height or discharge) and exogenous factors (e.g., precipitation history and forecast reports). Unlike conventional forecasting, the proposed model, AquaCast, captures both inter-variable and temporal dependencies across all inputs, while focusing forecast solely on endogenous variables. Exogenous inputs are fused via an embedding layer, eliminating the need to forecast them and enabling the model to attend to their short-term influences more effectively. We evaluate our approach on the LausanneCity dataset, which includes measurements from four urban drainage sensors, and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance when using only endogenous variables. Performance also improves with the inclusion of exogenous variables and forecast reports. To assess generalization and scalability, we additionally test the model on three large-scale synthesized datasets, generated from MeteoSwiss records, the Lorenz Attractors model, and the Random Fields model, each representing a different level of temporal complexity across 100 nodes. The results confirm that our model consistently outperforms existing baselines and maintains a robust and accurate forecast across both real and synthetic datasets.

We introduce rd-spiral, an open-source Python library for simulating 2D reaction-diffusion systems using pseudo-spectral methods. The framework combines FFT-based spatial discretization with adaptive Dormand-Prince time integration, achieving exponential convergence while maintaining pedagogical clarity. We analyze three dynamical regimes: stable spirals, spatiotemporal chaos, and pattern decay, revealing extreme non-Gaussian statistics (kurtosis >96) in stable states. Information-theoretic metrics show 10.7% reduction in activator-inhibitor coupling during turbulence versus 6.5% in stable regimes. The solver handles stiffness ratios >6:1 with features including automated equilibrium classification and checkpointing. Effect sizes (delta=0.37--0.78) distinguish regimes, with asymmetric field sensitivities to perturbations. By balancing computational rigor with educational transparency, rd-spiral bridges theoretical and practical nonlinear dynamics.

Machine learning (ML) offers transformative potential for computational fluid dynamics (CFD), promising to accelerate simulations, improve turbulence modelling, and enable real-time flow prediction and control-capabilities that could fundamentally change how engineers approach fluid dynamics problems. However, the exploration of ML in fluid dynamics is critically hampered by the scarcity of large, diverse, and high-fidelity datasets suitable for training robust models. This limitation is particularly acute for highly turbulent flows, which dominate practical engineering applications yet remain computationally prohibitive to simulate at scale. High-Reynolds number turbulent datasets are essential for ML models to learn the complex, multi-scale physics characteristic of real-world flows, enabling generalisation beyond the simplified, low-Reynolds number regimes often represented in existing datasets. This paper introduces WAKESET, a novel, large-scale CFD dataset of highly turbulent flows, designed to address this critical gap. The dataset captures the complex hydrodynamic interactions during the underwater recovery of an autonomous underwater vehicle by a larger extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicle. It comprises 1,091 high-fidelity Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations, augmented to 4,364 instances, covering a wide operational envelope of speeds (up to Reynolds numbers of 1.09 x 10^8) and turning angles. This work details the motivation for this new dataset by reviewing existing resources, outlines the hydrodynamic modelling and validation underpinning its creation, and describes its structure. The dataset's focus on a practical engineering problem, its scale, and its high turbulence characteristics make it a valuable resource for developing and benchmarking ML models for flow field prediction, surrogate modelling, and autonomous navigation in complex underwater environments.

We consider the problem of modeling high-speed flows using machine learning methods. While most prior studies focus on low-speed fluid flows in which uniform time-stepping is practical, flows approaching and exceeding the speed of sound exhibit sudden changes such as shock waves. In such cases, it is essential to use adaptive time-stepping methods to allow a temporal resolution sufficient to resolve these phenomena while simultaneously balancing computational costs. Here, we propose a two-phase machine learning method, known as ShockCast, to model high-speed flows with adaptive time-stepping. In the first phase, we propose to employ a machine learning model to predict the timestep size. In the second phase, the predicted timestep is used as an input along with the current fluid fields to advance the system state by the predicted timestep. We explore several physically-motivated components for timestep prediction and introduce timestep conditioning strategies inspired by neural ODE and Mixture of Experts. As ShockCast is the first framework for learning high-speed flows, we evaluate our methods by generating two supersonic flow datasets, available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/divelab. Our code is publicly available as part of the AIRS library (https://github.com/divelab/AIRS).

Recent advances in the theory of Neural Operators (NOs) have enabled fast and accurate computation of the solutions to complex systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite their great success, current NO-based solutions face important challenges when dealing with spatio-temporal PDEs over long time scales. Specifically, the current theory of NOs does not present a systematic framework to perform data assimilation and efficiently correct the evolution of PDE solutions over time based on sparsely sampled noisy measurements. In this paper, we propose a learning-based state-space approach to compute the solution operators to infinite-dimensional semilinear PDEs. Exploiting the structure of semilinear PDEs and the theory of nonlinear observers in function spaces, we develop a flexible recursive method that allows for both prediction and data assimilation by combining prediction and correction operations. The proposed framework is capable of producing fast and accurate predictions over long time horizons, dealing with irregularly sampled noisy measurements to correct the solution, and benefits from the decoupling between the spatial and temporal dynamics of this class of PDEs. We show through experiments on the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, Navier-Stokes and Korteweg-de Vries equations that the proposed model is robust to noise and can leverage arbitrary amounts of measurements to correct its prediction over a long time horizon with little computational overhead.

Generative models have emerged as a powerful paradigm for solving physics systems and modeling complex spatiotemporal dynamics. However, achieving high physical accuracy without incurring high computational cost remains a fundamental challenge, as existing approaches face a critical speed-fidelity trade-off. In this work, we introduce Recursive Flow Matching (RecFM), a generative framework for forecasting complex spatiotemporal dynamics. RecFM enforces self-consistency to align trajectories across discretization scales, reducing discretization errors and improving performance across metrics for physics-based tasks. To our knowledge, this is the first method to achieve high-fidelity one- and few-step (2-4 step) dynamic generation for scientific systems with performance comparable to state-of-the-art multi-step solvers. Across challenging scientific benchmarks, RecFM achieves up to a 20times speedup over leading diffusion-based emulators while improving predictive accuracy. Furthermore, RecFM reduces mean squared error by over 15% compared to vanilla flow matching, offering a scalable and efficient solution for real-time scientific emulation.

Warm-sector heavy rainfall often occurs along the coast of South China, and it is usually localized and long-lasting, making it challenging to predict. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to better resolve topographic features and forecast such high-impact weather events. However, when the grid spacing becomes comparable to the length scales of convection, known as the gray zone, the turbulent eddies in the atmospheric boundary layer are only partially resolved and parameterized to some extent. Whether using a convection parameterization (CP) scheme in the gray zone remains controversial. Scale-aware CP schemes are developed to enhance the representation of convective transport within the gray zone. The multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme includes modifications that allow for its effective implementation at a grid resolution as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increasing application of machine learning (ML) models to various domains of atmospheric sciences, including the replacement of physical parameterizations with ML models. This work proposes a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model as a replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to generate training and testing data over South China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, the WRF model is coupled with the ML based CP scheme and compared with WRF simulations with original MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the potential use of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

Foundation models have transformed machine learning for language and vision, but achieving comparable impact in physical simulation remains a challenge. Data heterogeneity and unstable long-term dynamics inhibit learning from sufficiently diverse dynamics, while varying resolutions and dimensionalities challenge efficient training on modern hardware. Through empirical and theoretical analysis, we incorporate new approaches to mitigate these obstacles, including a harmonic-analysis-based stabilization method, load-balanced distributed 2D and 3D training strategies, and compute-adaptive tokenization. Using these tools, we develop Walrus, a transformer-based foundation model developed primarily for fluid-like continuum dynamics. Walrus is pretrained on nineteen diverse scenarios spanning astrophysics, geoscience, rheology, plasma physics, acoustics, and classical fluids. Experiments show that Walrus outperforms prior foundation models on both short and long term prediction horizons on downstream tasks and across the breadth of pretraining data, while ablation studies confirm the value of our contributions to forecast stability, training throughput, and transfer performance over conventional approaches. Code and weights are released for community use.

Recent works exploring deep learning application to dynamical systems modeling have demonstrated that embedding physical priors into neural networks can yield more effective, physically-realistic, and data-efficient models. However, in the absence of complete prior knowledge of a dynamical system's physical characteristics, determining the optimal structure and optimization strategy for these models can be difficult. In this work, we explore methods for discovering neural state space dynamics models for system identification. Starting with a design space of block-oriented state space models and structured linear maps with strong physical priors, we encode these components into a model genome alongside network structure, penalty constraints, and optimization hyperparameters. Demonstrating the overall utility of the design space, we employ an asynchronous genetic search algorithm that alternates between model selection and optimization and obtains accurate physically consistent models of three physical systems: an aerodynamics body, a continuous stirred tank reactor, and a two tank interacting system.

Physics-informed surrogate models can accelerate computational fluid dynamics simulations. However, many existing methods reproduce global flow patterns more reliably than localized multiscale structures. This study presents a physics-informed Fourier-wavelet transformer for next-step velocity-field reconstruction in real-world flow benchmarks. The proposed formulation combines hybrid Fourier-wavelet spectral encoding with physics-biased self-attention based on partial differential equation residual diagnostics. It also uses self-supervised pretraining through Masked Physics Prediction and Equation Consistency Prediction. The experiments are conducted on two real benchmark cases: cylinder-wake flow and fluid-structure interaction. All approaches are evaluated under a shared local protocol and compared with spectral, transformer-based, operator-learning, and physics-informed neural-network baselines. On the cylinder-wake benchmark, the proposed model achieves the best aggregate accuracy, with an all-channel normalized mean-squared error of 0.05875 and an all-channel Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.97019. On the fluid-structure-interaction benchmark, it gives the lowest all-channel normalized mean-squared error of 2.70 times 10^{-4}, compared with 4.02 times 10^{-4} for the strongest baseline. Component-wise field comparisons and scale-separated diagnostics further show stronger recovery of localized wake structures, including near-body, wake-core, and far-wake features. The results demonstrate improved real-world flow reconstruction while maintaining a practical accuracy-cost tradeoff.

The stable periodic patterns present in time series data serve as the foundation for conducting long-horizon forecasts. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of explicitly modeling this periodicity to enhance the performance of models in long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Specifically, we introduce the Residual Cycle Forecasting (RCF) technique, which utilizes learnable recurrent cycles to model the inherent periodic patterns within sequences, and then performs predictions on the residual components of the modeled cycles. Combining RCF with a Linear layer or a shallow MLP forms the simple yet powerful method proposed in this paper, called CycleNet. CycleNet achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy in multiple domains including electricity, weather, and energy, while offering significant efficiency advantages by reducing over 90% of the required parameter quantity. Furthermore, as a novel plug-and-play technique, the RCF can also significantly improve the prediction accuracy of existing models, including PatchTST and iTransformer. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ACAT-SCUT/CycleNet.

Seamless forecasting that produces warning information at continuum timescales based on only one system is a long-standing pursuit for weather-climate service. While the rapid advancement of deep learning has induced revolutionary changes in classical forecasting field, current efforts are still focused on building separate AI models for weather and climate forecasts. To explore the seamless forecasting ability based on one AI model, we propose FengWu-Weather to Subseasonal (FengWu-W2S), which builds on the FengWu global weather forecast model and incorporates an ocean-atmosphere-land coupling structure along with a diverse perturbation strategy. FengWu-W2S can generate 6-hourly atmosphere forecasts extending up to 42 days through an autoregressive and seamless manner. Our hindcast results demonstrate that FengWu-W2S reliably predicts atmospheric conditions out to 3-6 weeks ahead, enhancing predictive capabilities for global surface air temperature, precipitation, geopotential height and intraseasonal signals such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Moreover, our ablation experiments on forecast error growth from daily to seasonal timescales reveal potential pathways for developing AI-based integrated system for seamless weather-climate forecasting in the future.

This paper proposes to model chaos in the ATM cash withdrawal time series of a big Indian bank and forecast the withdrawals using deep learning methods. It also considers the importance of day-of-the-week and includes it as a dummy exogenous variable. We first modelled the chaos present in the withdrawal time series by reconstructing the state space of each series using the lag, and embedding dimension found using an auto-correlation function and Cao's method. This process converts the uni-variate time series into multi variate time series. The "day-of-the-week" is converted into seven features with the help of one-hot encoding. Then these seven features are augmented to the multivariate time series. For forecasting the future cash withdrawals, using algorithms namely ARIMA, random forest (RF), support vector regressor (SVR), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), group method of data handling (GMDH), general regression neural network (GRNN), long short term memory neural network and 1-dimensional convolutional neural network. We considered a daily cash withdrawals data set from an Indian commercial bank. After modelling chaos and adding exogenous features to the data set, we observed improvements in the forecasting for all models. Even though the random forest (RF) yielded better Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) value, deep learning algorithms, namely LSTM and 1D CNN, showed similar performance compared to RF, based on t-test.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have shown great promise in time series forecasting. However, most existing LLM-based forecasting methods still follow a static generative paradigm that directly maps historical observations to future values in a single pass. Under this paradigm, forecasting is constrained by limited temporal pattern extraction, single-round acquisition of contextual features, one-shot forecast generation, and lack of support from ensemble forecasts. To address these limitations, in this work, we propose CastFlow, a dynamic agentic forecasting framework that enables multi-view temporal pattern extraction, multi-round contextual features acquisition, iterative forecast refinement, and forecasting with ensemble forecasts. First, CastFlow organizes the forecasting process into planning, action, forecasting, and reflection, establishing an agentic workflow. Second, this workflow is supported by a memory module that retrieves prior experience and a multi-view toolkit that constructs diagnostic evidence and provides a reliable ensemble forecast baseline. Third, CastFlow adopts a role-specialized design that combines general-purpose reasoning with specialized numerical forecasting. Under this design, a frozen LLM preserves general-purpose reasoning, while a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM performs evidence-guided numerical forecasting based on the ensemble forecast baseline, rather than from scratch. To optimize a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM, we further develop a two-stage workflow-oriented training that combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). To evaluate the effectiveness of CastFlow, we conduct extensive experiments on diverse datasets and show that it achieves superior overall results against strong baselines. We hope that this work can serve as a step toward more adaptive and accurate time series forecasting.

Accurate air quality forecasting is essential for public health and environmental sustainability, but remains challenging due to the complex pollutant dynamics. Existing deep learning methods often model pollutant dynamics as an instantaneous process, overlooking the intrinsic delays in pollutant propagation. Thus, we propose AirDDE, the first neural delay differential equation framework in this task that integrates delay modeling into a continuous-time pollutant evolution under physical guidance. Specifically, two novel components are introduced: (1) a memory-augmented attention module that retrieves globally and locally historical features, which can adaptively capture delay effects modulated by multifactor data; and (2) a physics-guided delay evolving function, grounded in the diffusion-advection equation, that models diffusion, delayed advection, and source/sink terms, which can capture delay-aware pollutant accumulation patterns with physical plausibility. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that AirDDE achieves the state-of-the-art forecasting performance with an average MAE reduction of 8.79\% over the best baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/w2obin/airdde-aaai.

World models learn to predict future states of an environment, enabling planning and mental simulation. Current approaches default to Transformer-based predictors operating in learned latent spaces. This comes at a cost: O(N^2) computation and no explicit spatial inductive bias. This paper asks a foundational question: is self-attention necessary for predictive world modeling, or can alternative computational substrates achieve comparable or superior results? I introduce FluidWorld, a proof-of-concept world model whose predictive dynamics are governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) of reaction-diffusion type. Instead of using a separate neural network predictor, the PDE integration itself produces the future state prediction. In a strictly parameter-matched three-way ablation on unconditional UCF-101 video prediction (64x64, ~800K parameters, identical encoder, decoder, losses, and data), FluidWorld is compared against both a Transformer baseline (self-attention) and a ConvLSTM baseline (convolutional recurrence). While all three models converge to comparable single-step prediction loss, FluidWorld achieves 2x lower reconstruction error, produces representations with 10-15% higher spatial structure preservation and 18-25% more effective dimensionality, and critically maintains coherent multi-step rollouts where both baselines degrade rapidly. All experiments were conducted on a single consumer-grade PC (Intel Core i5, NVIDIA RTX 4070 Ti), without any large-scale compute. These results establish that PDE-based dynamics, which natively provide O(N) spatial complexity, adaptive computation, and global spatial coherence through diffusion, are a viable and parameter-efficient alternative to both attention and convolutional recurrence for world modeling.

Physics-based numerical models have been the bedrock of atmospheric sciences for decades, offering robust solutions but often at the cost of significant computational resources. Deep learning (DL) models have emerged as powerful tools in meteorology, capable of analyzing complex weather and climate data by learning intricate dependencies and providing rapid predictions once trained. While these models demonstrate promising performance in weather prediction, often surpassing traditional physics-based methods, they still face critical challenges. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent deep learning and foundation models for weather prediction. We propose a taxonomy to classify existing models based on their training paradigms: deterministic predictive learning, probabilistic generative learning, and pre-training and fine-tuning. For each paradigm, we delve into the underlying model architectures, address major challenges, offer key insights, and propose targeted directions for future research. Furthermore, we explore real-world applications of these methods and provide a curated summary of open-source code repositories and widely used datasets, aiming to bridge research advancements with practical implementations while fostering open and trustworthy scientific practices in adopting cutting-edge artificial intelligence for weather prediction. The related sources are available at https://github.com/JimengShi/ DL-Foundation-Models-Weather.

In recent years, applying deep learning to solve physics problems has attracted much attention. Data-driven deep learning methods produce fast numerical operators that can learn approximate solutions to the whole system of partial differential equations (i.e., surrogate modeling). Although these neural networks may have lower accuracy than traditional numerical methods, they, once trained, are orders of magnitude faster at inference. Hence, one crucial feature is that these operators can generalize to unseen PDE parameters without expensive re-training.In this paper, we construct CFDBench, a benchmark tailored for evaluating the generalization ability of neural operators after training in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) problems. It features four classic CFD problems: lid-driven cavity flow, laminar boundary layer flow in circular tubes, dam flows through the steps, and periodic Karman vortex street. The data contains a total of 302K frames of velocity and pressure fields, involving 739 cases with different operating condition parameters, generated with numerical methods. We evaluate the effectiveness of popular neural operators including feed-forward networks, DeepONet, FNO, U-Net, etc. on CFDBnech by predicting flows with non-periodic boundary conditions, fluid properties, and flow domain shapes that are not seen during training. Appropriate modifications were made to apply popular deep neural networks to CFDBench and enable the accommodation of more changing inputs. Empirical results on CFDBench show many baseline models have errors as high as 300% in some problems, and severe error accumulation when performing autoregressive inference. CFDBench facilitates a more comprehensive comparison between different neural operators for CFD compared to existing benchmarks.

Learning physical simulations has been an essential and central aspect of many recent research efforts in machine learning, particularly for Navier-Stokes-based fluid mechanics. Classic numerical solvers have traditionally been computationally expensive and challenging to use in inverse problems, whereas Neural solvers aim to address both concerns through machine learning. We propose a general formulation for continuous convolutions using separable basis functions as a superset of existing methods and evaluate a large set of basis functions in the context of (a) a compressible 1D SPH simulation, (b) a weakly compressible 2D SPH simulation, and (c) an incompressible 2D SPH Simulation. We demonstrate that even and odd symmetries included in the basis functions are key aspects of stability and accuracy. Our broad evaluation shows that Fourier-based continuous convolutions outperform all other architectures regarding accuracy and generalization. Finally, using these Fourier-based networks, we show that prior inductive biases, such as window functions, are no longer necessary. An implementation of our approach, as well as complete datasets and solver implementations, is available at https://github.com/tum-pbs/SFBC.

In the present research, we delve into the intricate realm of electroencephalogram (EEG) data analysis, focusing on sequence-to-sequence prediction of data across 32 EEG channels. The study harmoniously fuses the principles of applied chaos theory and dynamical systems theory to engender a novel feature set, enriching the representational capacity of our deep learning model. The endeavour's cornerstone is a transformer-based sequence-to-sequence architecture, calibrated meticulously to capture the non-linear and high-dimensional temporal dependencies inherent in EEG sequences. Through judicious architecture design, parameter initialisation strategies, and optimisation techniques, we have navigated the intricate balance between computational expediency and predictive performance. Our model stands as a vanguard in EEG data sequence prediction, demonstrating remarkable generalisability and robustness. The findings not only extend our understanding of EEG data dynamics but also unveil a potent analytical framework that can be adapted to diverse temporal sequence prediction tasks in neuroscience and beyond.

Humans possess an exceptional ability to imagine 4D scenes, encompassing both motion and 3D geometry, from a single still image. This ability is rooted in our accumulated observations of similar scenes and an intuitive understanding of physics. In this paper, we aim to replicate this capacity in neural networks, specifically focusing on natural fluid imagery. Existing methods for this task typically employ simplistic 2D motion estimators to animate the image, leading to motion predictions that often defy physical principles, resulting in unrealistic animations. Our approach introduces a novel method for generating 4D scenes with physics-consistent animation from a single image. We propose the use of a physics-informed neural network that predicts motion for each surface point, guided by a loss term derived from fundamental physical principles, including the Navier-Stokes equations. To capture appearance, we predict feature-based 3D Gaussians from the input image and its estimated depth, which are then animated using the predicted motions and rendered from any desired camera perspective. Experimental results highlight the effectiveness of our method in producing physically plausible animations, showcasing significant performance improvements over existing methods. Our project page is https://physfluid.github.io/ .

Time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Recently, mostly due to the high computational cost of traditional solution techniques, deep neural network based surrogates have gained increased interest. The practical utility of such neural PDE solvers relies on their ability to provide accurate, stable predictions over long time horizons, which is a notoriously hard problem. In this work, we present a large-scale analysis of common temporal rollout strategies, identifying the neglect of non-dominant spatial frequency information, often associated with high frequencies in PDE solutions, as the primary pitfall limiting stable, accurate rollout performance. Based on these insights, we draw inspiration from recent advances in diffusion models to introduce PDE-Refiner; a novel model class that enables more accurate modeling of all frequency components via a multistep refinement process. We validate PDE-Refiner on challenging benchmarks of complex fluid dynamics, demonstrating stable and accurate rollouts that consistently outperform state-of-the-art models, including neural, numerical, and hybrid neural-numerical architectures. We further demonstrate that PDE-Refiner greatly enhances data efficiency, since the denoising objective implicitly induces a novel form of spectral data augmentation. Finally, PDE-Refiner's connection to diffusion models enables an accurate and efficient assessment of the model's predictive uncertainty, allowing us to estimate when the surrogate becomes inaccurate.

Achieving scalable coordination in large robotic swarms is often constrained by reliance on inter-agent communication, which introduces latency, bandwidth limitations, and vulnerability to failure. To address this gap, a decentralized approach for outer-loop control of large multi-agent systems based on the paradigm of how a fluid moves through a volume is proposed and evaluated. A relationship between fundamental fluidic element properties and individual robotic agent states is developed such that the corresponding swarm "flows" through a space, akin to a fluid when forced via a pressure boundary condition. By ascribing fluid-like properties to subsets of agents, the swarm evolves collectively while maintaining desirable structure and coherence without explicit communication of agent states within or outside of the swarm. The approach is evaluated using simulations involving O(10^3) quadcopter agents and compared against Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solutions for a converging-diverging domain. Quantitative agreement between swarm-derived and CFD fields is assessed using Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE), yielding normalized errors of 0.15-0.9 for velocity, 0.61-0.98 for density, 0-0.937 for pressure. These results demonstrate the feasibility of treating large robotic swarms as continuum systems that retain the macroscopic structure derived from first principles, providing a basis for scalable and decentralized control.

Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift. To bridge this gap, we present Latent Laplace Diffusion (LLapDiff), a generative framework that models the target as a low-dimensional latent trajectory, enabling horizon-wide generation without step-by-step integration over physical time. We guide the reverse process utilizing a stable modal parameterization motivated by stochastic port-Hamiltonian dynamics, and parameterize its mean evolution in the Laplace domain via learnable complex-conjugate poles, enabling direct evaluation over irregular timestamps. We also link continuous dynamics to irregular observations through renewal-averaging analysis, which maps sampling gaps to effective event-domain poles and motivates a gap-aware history summarizer. Extensive experiments show that LLapDiff improves over baselines in long-horizon forecasting, and its continuous-time generative nature supports missing-value imputation by querying the same model at historical timestamps. Code is available at https://github.com/pixelhero98/LLapDiffusion.

Neural networks are one tool for approximating non-linear differential equations used in scientific computing tasks such as surrogate modeling, real-time predictions, and optimal control. PDE foundation models utilize neural networks to train approximations to multiple differential equations simultaneously and are thus a general purpose solver that can be adapted to downstream tasks. Current PDE foundation models focus on either learning general solution operators and/or the governing system of equations, and thus only handle numerical or symbolic modalities. However, real-world applications may require more flexible data modalities, e.g. text analysis or descriptive outputs. To address this gap, we propose a novel multimodal deep learning approach that leverages a transformer-based architecture to approximate solution operators for a wide variety of ODEs and PDEs. Our method integrates numerical inputs, such as equation parameters and initial conditions, with text descriptions of physical processes or system dynamics. This enables our model to handle settings where symbolic representations may be incomplete or unavailable. In addition to providing accurate numerical predictions, our approach generates interpretable scientific text descriptions, offering deeper insights into the underlying dynamics and solution properties. The numerical experiments show that our model provides accurate solutions for in-distribution data (with average relative error less than 3.3%) and out-of-distribution data (average relative error less than 7.8%) together with precise text descriptions (with correct descriptions generated 100% of times). In certain tests, the model is also shown to be capable of extrapolating solutions in time.

Large data-driven physics models like DeepMind's weather model GraphCast have empirically succeeded in parameterizing time operators for complex dynamical systems with an accuracy reaching or in some cases exceeding that of traditional physics-based solvers. Unfortunately, how these data-driven models perform computations is largely unknown and whether their internal representations are interpretable or physically consistent is an open question. Here, we adapt tools from interpretability research in Large Language Models to analyze intermediate computational layers in GraphCast, leveraging sparse autoencoders to discover interpretable features in the neuron space of the model. We uncover distinct features on a wide range of length and time scales that correspond to tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, diurnal and seasonal behavior, large-scale precipitation patterns, specific geographical coding, and sea-ice extent, among others. We further demonstrate how the precise abstraction of these features can be probed via interventions on the prediction steps of the model. As a case study, we sparsely modify a feature corresponding to tropical cyclones in GraphCast and observe interpretable and physically consistent modifications to evolving hurricanes. Such methods offer a window into the black-box behavior of data-driven physics models and are a step towards realizing their potential as trustworthy predictors and scientifically valuable tools for discovery.

Time series forecasting is an important application in various domains such as energy management, traffic planning, financial markets, meteorology, and medicine. However, real-time series data often present intricate temporal variability and sharp fluctuations, which pose significant challenges for time series forecasting. Previous models that rely on 1D time series representations usually struggle with complex temporal variations. To address the limitations of 1D time series, this study introduces the Times2D method that transforms the 1D time series into 2D space. Times2D consists of three main parts: first, a Periodic Decomposition Block (PDB) that captures temporal variations within a period and between the same periods by converting the time series into a 2D tensor in the frequency domain. Second, the First and Second Derivative Heatmaps (FSDH) capture sharp changes and turning points, respectively. Finally, an Aggregation Forecasting Block (AFB) integrates the output tensors from PDB and FSDH for accurate forecasting. This 2D transformation enables the utilization of 2D convolutional operations to effectively capture long and short characteristics of the time series. Comprehensive experimental results across large-scale data in the literature demonstrate that the proposed Times2D model achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting. The code is available in this repository: https://github.com/Tims2D/Times2D.

Individual chemically active drops suspended in a surfactant solution were observed to self-propel spontaneously with straight, helical, or chaotic trajectories. To elucidate how these drops can exhibit such strikingly different dynamics and `decide' what to do, we propose a minimal axisymmetric model of a spherical active drop, and show that simple and linear interface properties can lead to both steady self-propulsion of the droplet as well as chaotic behavior. The model includes two different mobility mechanisms, namely, diffusiophoresis and the Marangoni effect, that convert self-generated gradients of surfactant concentration into the flow at the droplet surface. In turn, surface-driven flow initiates surfactant advection that is the only nonlinear mechanism and, thus, the only source of dynamical complexity in our model. Numerical investigation of the fully-coupled hydrodynamic and advection diffusion problems reveals that strong advection (e.g., large droplet size) may destabilize a steadily self-propelling drop; once destabilized, the droplet spontaneously stops and a symmetric extensile flow emerges. If advection is strengthened even further in comparison with molecular diffusion, the droplet may perform chaotic oscillations. Our results indicate that the thresholds of these instabilities depend heavily on the balance between diffusiophoresis and the Marangoni effect. Using linear stability analysis, we demonstrate that diffusiophoresis promotes the onset of high-order modes of monotonic instability of the motionless drop. We argue that diffusiophoresis has a similar effect on the instabilities of a moving drop.

Most state-of-the-art approaches for weather and climate modeling are based on physics-informed numerical models of the atmosphere. These approaches aim to model the non-linear dynamics and complex interactions between multiple variables, which are challenging to approximate. Additionally, many such numerical models are computationally intensive, especially when modeling the atmospheric phenomenon at a fine-grained spatial and temporal resolution. Recent data-driven approaches based on machine learning instead aim to directly solve a downstream forecasting or projection task by learning a data-driven functional mapping using deep neural networks. However, these networks are trained using curated and homogeneous climate datasets for specific spatiotemporal tasks, and thus lack the generality of numerical models. We develop and demonstrate ClimaX, a flexible and generalizable deep learning model for weather and climate science that can be trained using heterogeneous datasets spanning different variables, spatio-temporal coverage, and physical groundings. ClimaX extends the Transformer architecture with novel encoding and aggregation blocks that allow effective use of available compute while maintaining general utility. ClimaX is pre-trained with a self-supervised learning objective on climate datasets derived from CMIP6. The pre-trained ClimaX can then be fine-tuned to address a breadth of climate and weather tasks, including those that involve atmospheric variables and spatio-temporal scales unseen during pretraining. Compared to existing data-driven baselines, we show that this generality in ClimaX results in superior performance on benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate projections, even when pretrained at lower resolutions and compute budgets.

Time series forecasting is widely used in extensive applications, such as traffic planning and weather forecasting. However, real-world time series usually present intricate temporal variations, making forecasting extremely challenging. Going beyond the mainstream paradigms of plain decomposition and multiperiodicity analysis, we analyze temporal variations in a novel view of multiscale-mixing, which is based on an intuitive but important observation that time series present distinct patterns in different sampling scales. The microscopic and the macroscopic information are reflected in fine and coarse scales respectively, and thereby complex variations can be inherently disentangled. Based on this observation, we propose TimeMixer as a fully MLP-based architecture with Past-Decomposable-Mixing (PDM) and Future-Multipredictor-Mixing (FMM) blocks to take full advantage of disentangled multiscale series in both past extraction and future prediction phases. Concretely, PDM applies the decomposition to multiscale series and further mixes the decomposed seasonal and trend components in fine-to-coarse and coarse-to-fine directions separately, which successively aggregates the microscopic seasonal and macroscopic trend information. FMM further ensembles multiple predictors to utilize complementary forecasting capabilities in multiscale observations. Consequently, TimeMixer is able to achieve consistent state-of-the-art performances in both long-term and short-term forecasting tasks with favorable run-time efficiency.